But your argument isn’t fair. Unless you are Will Clark, players’ rate stats will always go down at the end of their career. So you are measuring Pudge’s rate of production including his decline phase vs Posada numbers through his prime. That is not an even comparison. Furthermore, Posada didn’t play much in the majors before hitting his prime, again improving his rate stats, but providing less value to his team.
A better comparison would be to measure the best 5 or 7 year period of each batter. Even so you are grossly underestimating the value of longevity. 800 games caught with even league average offensive numbers is incredibly valuable for a catcher. To me, Pudge is the more valuable hitter, and isn’t especially close.
That said, you don’t have to be as good as Pudge to be a hall of famer. I think Posada will deserve consideration, but needs to have at least another 2 or 3 maintaining most of his current level of production.
Which are the hitting statistics that suggest Rodriguez is a better hitter? Batting average? Is that it? Or are there others that I am discluding? Because I’ll happily admit to a disdain for batting average, particularly relative to OBP, as measures of hitting.
We’ll just have to disagree on this. For the bulk of his career, Posada was the best hitting catcher in the American League, and one of the best hitting catchers of all time. He stands on his own.
And I fucking hate the dude, by the way. Wish a strong wind would come along and blow his skinny butt to Montana. But there is room for three great catchers in an era, which is a good thing, because there were three great catchers in this era.
Chipper tends to have at least one significant injury per season, which prevents him from playing more then 130 games or so. He is great those 130 though, but it just is enough to prevent him from being on top of a MVP ballot.
I think most of the top pitchers of the 90’s and 00’s will make it into the hall eventually, especially considering MLB has no desire to scale back on offense. Of the currently active:
First Ballot
Randy Johnson
Greg Maddux
Mid Eligibility
Tom Glavin
John Smoltz
Pedro
Trevor Hoffman
Late Eligibility
Curt Schilling
Mike Mussina
There will also be a special referendum to create the Hall of Mariano Rivera.
I don’t think it’s as much of a Yankee bias as a fame bias. Had Derek Jeter played for a small franchise he likely wouldn’t even been in the discussion. But because he was good player in a big market, was a media darling, and was the de facto face of baseball for ~10 years, he gets in.
Why am I defending a bunch of freaking Yankees today? Is it bizarro day?
Nonetheless, I am calling BS on the above. Show me a player who played shortstop for ten years or more and finished with hitting statistics near to those compiled by Derek Jeter who is not in the Hall of Fame, and I’ll credit your assertion.
Ok. Phew. It’s a pain in the ass compiling these stats on one’s own.
For our purposes, “the '90s” refers to 1991-2000, as in 1990 Jeff Bagwell wasn’t in the league, and Frank Thomas was a rookie who appeared in only 60 games. This specific time frame hurts Bonds in the comparison, because he won MVPs in 1990 and 2001.
I’ll admit that Bagwell’s numbers are a little bit better than I’d remembered, but nonetheless this is the order I’d rank them in:
--------------- AB -------- BA/OBP/SLG ------- OPS — WARP3 — GG — MVP (Top 5)
Bonds … 4855 … .303 / .438 / .606 … 1.044 … 118.4 … 7 … 2 (7)
Thomas … 5283 … .320 / .439 / .581 … 1.020 … 99.8 … 0 … 2 (5)
Griffey … 5300 … .299 / .386 / .590 … 0.970 … 96.6 … 9 … 1 (6)
Bagwell … 5349 … .305 / .417 / .552 … 0.969 … 97.6 … 1 … 1 (3)
Griffey might have a case if he’d walked more often, and Thomas might have a case if he provided any value in the field. As it is, though, I don’t see anything in those numbers that indicates there was a player equivalent to Barry Bonds in the '90s, let alone superior.
Then why is Craig Biggio in the discussion? I admit I’m not schooled in the more technical stats, but they strike me as superficially similar - middle infielders (although Biggio was moved to the OF late in his career) who hit at the top of the order, not a lot of power, high number of hits. Jeter has a better OPS+ and beats Biggio in both components of that figure. He hits for a better average, too. But Biggio had more than 3,000 hits and he’s generally considered a lock. Jeter’s going to get to that mark, too, barring injury, and he’s been on four World Series winners and plays a position that I believe is considered more defensively valuable.
While placing those two players into discrete either/or categories magnifies the difference between them, Unit has certainly been much more dominant in his best seasons than Glavine. Tom has consistency and longevity on his side but Johnson’s arm during his dominant seasons will give you a better shot at getting in the postseason.
I actually think that helps prove it. Mattingly’s stats are no where near good enough to get in, yet there’s constant discussion surrounding his possible admission.
As far as I see, Miguel Tejada’s name hasn’t been mentioned in the discussion. In any event, I wrote that in haste and on reflection Jeter was probably a poor choice. My main point was that affability wins you Fame status which helps getting into the HOF. No one had even mentioned Mussina, though his 260 and counting wins and .634 winning percentage definitely deserved notice. In my opinion it’s because he’s taciturn and for the most part ignores the press attention. If he had the amicability of a David Cone or self-possessed ego of Curt Schilling, he’d be in the discussion.
Let’s see if this computes. Career to date:
Wins: RJ=288 TG=305
Win%: RJ=.647 TG=.602
SO: RJ=4698 TG=2604
ERA: RJ=3.27 TG=3.57
WHIP: RJ=1.171 TG=1.312
Cy Young: RJ=5 TG=2
Randy was the second most dominating pitcher of his age (second to Roger Clemens). Tom Glavin was a very good pitcher for a very long time, but in my exclusionary outlook, very good doesn’t get you in on the first ballot.
I don’t think anyone will question that Posada is a better hitter in the percentages than Rodriguez, but the difference between them in games played is not a matter of one being lucky, it’s a huge difference in terms of their total career value. Rodriguez’s career is fifty percent longer.
It’s also worth noting that Rodriguez has been a legitimately awesome defensive catcher. I don’t think even Yankee fans will claim Posada is an especially impressive catcher, defensively speaking.
For what it’s worth, Rodriguez sits at 129 career WARP3, Posada at 81. Rodriguez was 319 career Win Shares, Posada 228. In both cases I-Rod’s totals are way above Hall standards for catchers; Posada’s are not. Posada would not be a terrible Hall of Fame choice, but even by the standards of catchers, his total career accomplishments, according to any analytical stat, are lacking, because of the shortness of his career:
WARP3:
I-Rod 129
Gary Carter 116
Carlton Fisk 116
Mike Piazza 98
Posada 81
Posada is quite a lot closer to Bill Freehan than he is to I-Rod. With a few more years I agree he’ll become a solid candidate, but being a 37-year-old catcher, you never know if the few more years will happen.
Eh, I’m not sure comparing McGwire and Sosa is reasonable in this context. McGwire played with Canseco in Oakland, home of Balco, and was directly accused of doping by Canseco. McGwire openly admitted to using Andro, not to mention having it in his locker all the time, which, while not steriods per se, is close enough to suggest that McGwire was happy to dabble in chemistry for the cause. Sosa hit a bunch of homers and got muscles, that’s pretty much it.
Has he been implicated anywhere other than Canseco’s book? (honest question)
If the answer is no, then I don’t expect it’ll have a huge effect on his votes or at least no more of an effect than any one of a number of players that’ll be on the ballot over the next decade or decade and a half.
He certainly won’t be in McGwire, Sosa, Palmeiro, or Clemens territory though.
One name that hasn’t been listed (not even in post #3!) is Jim Edmonds. He probably fell off too fast to build up the counting stats necessary, but he’s closer than a lot of people assume, especially when you factor in the defense and the position he played. More info here:
Unfortunately for him his 2007 was awful, and this year has not been better. He’ll need a major resurgence with Cubs (God, forbid…) to get more than passing mention and first-ballot induction into the “Hall of Very Good”.
There was a time when I thought Edmonds was on a HOF path, but as the Sheehan article points out, he falls short. It’s doubtful at his age that he’ll finish strong enough to improve his chances. Helluva player though.