Fifty-fucking-three percent of white women voted for Individual-ONE in 2016, and that was with a woman leading the D side, so good luck getting the girls to help.
Rep. Doug Collins (R-Georgia) who was overlooked for the vacant senate seat by Georgia Governor Brian Kemp for Kelly Loeffler in January is now leading the polls in a primary for the seat in a November special election. She is one of the senators who recently got into a scandal over stocks and possible insider information.
Curiously Collins’ poll also conducted a head to head between Trump and Biden. It’s 48% vs 46%. In Georgia. A state democrats haven’t won since Bill Clinton in 1992.
It’s one poll of course but given it’s a GOP insider poll it stands out. I’m not sure how much resources the Democratic Party will put into Georgia as the analysis so far has been about those Obama-to-Trump states that flipped in 2016 but in the broader picture I do believe the sunbelt states will be a bigger factor for Democrats electoral success in the future.
Yup. i hope the other girls show up.
After 9/11 Bush’s approval rating shot up to over 90% from the mid 50s, Trump has gone up 3 points or so. That is absolutely dismal in the midst of a terrible crisis.
A post I saw on another site compared Biden’s Favorable/Unfavorable numbers (as per the overall RCP aggregate of polls) to Hillary’s at the same point in 2016.
Biden as of April 5th 2020: Favorable 44.3 - 44.0 Unfavorable (+0.3)
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/joe_biden_favorableunfavorable-6677.html#polls
Hillary on April 5th 2016: Favorable 40.3 - 54.0 Unfavorable (-13.7)
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/clinton_favorableunfavorable-1131.html
Hillary was a unique candidate in that she had twenty five years of Republican smearing, in addition to the Russian meddling which at the very least was noted in the Mueller report to be targetted to boost Trump and Sanders during the primary battle. The emails scandal which was a closed case until Comey decided to open it a week before election day and of course the fact she had to take the good of being Bill’s husband with the bad. Biden in contrast has only been a household name and a recognized face since 2008 by which point he was already into his sixties. If Hillary could go through all that and still get three million more votes, it makes me wonder how many extra votes could Biden win by virtue of not being Hillary, and still lose the electoral college. A latest Fox New poll shows him +9 against Trump (2020 Presidential Election Polls: Biden vs. Trump - 270toWin) which would be the biggest margin of victory since 1984 (Clinton won by 8.5% vs Bob Dole in 1996).
I was about to say that. He should be killing it. Get up there and say how great the country is and how we will get through it together. Then step back and let the experts talk. But of course he can’t do that. He should have a Bush after Desert Storm boost right now and he’s not.
Add to that the belief from his base that this is all a hoax and any restrictions are tyranny and it’s not a good recipe for him. Still way too early in the crisis to tell what the outcome will be.
Polls tend to be rather noisy. A more appropriate comparison would probably be Kerry v. Bush from '04.
Those numbers have changed in the interim and the current gender gap might be the largest it’s ever been. We’re almost to the point in time where Trump’s and Republicans’ sole remaining sub-demographic is white men without college degrees. The demographic that is dying at an earlier average age than almost any other.
Yeah, but not in the next 6 months. So strap in for 4 more years.
I keep getting paywalled by NYT and other sources but apparently Biden has an 11-point advantage in polls, which is obviously good.
What’s less good is that it’s not clear how Biden is really performing in battleground states, and on the other hand, what is clear is that Trump voters are a LOT more motivated to support their guy than Biden-leaning voters are to support Biden.
As it was with Hillary, it’s not just who votes for Trump but also who decides to simply stay home and not support Biden. And in this regard, Biden has the exact same problem that Hillary had in 2016.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say that despite the 11-point deficit, Trump - at least as of today - is the favorite to win reelection. And he will be until Biden begins to convince more of his ‘leaners’ to show up at the polls. Perhaps it will be Trump’s own actions and decisions that convince voters more than Biden’s speeches, which is fine in my view. But that case for Biden, or at minimum, the case against Trump, must be made somehow.
After 9/11 Bush did not go on TV daily saying a lot of dumb stuff and lies. And Bush wasn’t tweeting a lot of insults and lies.
By my understanding and recollection of things Nate Silver has said, state results are generally correlated with national results, such that if Biden has anything close to an 11 point lead, he’d probably run away with an easy EC win. But that doesn’t mean that much this early, even if it’s better having a larger lead than a smaller one. We’ll see.
From the recent polls for battle ground states (which are in short supply). Biden is leading in Florida, Michigan & Arizona. That is enough to take the Electoral Collage and in fact Arizona is a bonus. He was doing well in Pennsylvania also, his birth state, but not recent polls.
Ohio was tied and Biden actually leads North Carolina & Wisconsin. He leads every state that did vote for Hillary. If he can sustain or improve on this, he’ll win by plenty.
So, no, Trump is not the favorite to win currently.
Useful resources:
Trump knows a bad economy is his real worry now. Which explains why he wants everything back to normal ASAP
If we go “back to normal” too soon, there will be a second outbreak that could lead to much or most of the public to self-quarantine for months out of panic, killing the economy. Trump is probably too stupid to consider this possibility.
Voter enthusiasm matters - it’s one reason why the polls were off in the last election. I fully concede that this is not a scientific or necessarily an accurate metric, but if we were to take the polling average and then factor the voter enthusiasm polling:
Biden: 53% x .56 = 29.68
Trump: 42% x .80 = 33.6
Then Trump, despite polling worse, still has a better chance of winning. His voters are really, really motivated to go to the polls. Better yet, as we already know, in states like Wisconsin, Florida, and North Carolina, it’s going to be easier for his voters to show up and vote than it will be for Biden’s, so in these states the built-in advantage for Trump is that much greater.
You can’t just take comfort in the polls. Trump’s support among his supporters will need to crater before he is really in danger.
I say go for it, Donny! You know you want to - what’s stopping you? Fire Tony Fauci, encourage your legions of religious nutters to congregate – by all means, open up the economy! And let the chips fall where they may.
PredictIt has markets for all 56 electoral vote awarding entities (50 states, 3 NE CDs, 2 ME CDs, and DC). Link
Using their API I pulled a snapshot of how things stand right now and computed the implied probabilities for either party to win each state.
If we arbitrarily say a state is swingable if both parties have a greater than 20% to win then the electoral college breaks down like this…
Category Electoral Votes
Lean/Safe R 164
Swingable 146
Lean/Safe D 228
Here’s how the swingables shake out…
State Democratic Republican EV Acc D Acc R
Iowa 22.15% 77.85% 6 374 170
Georgia 25.87% 74.13% 16 368 186
Ohio 29.70% 70.30% 18 352 204
North Carolina 45.09% 54.91% 15 334 219
Florida 45.94% 54.06% 29 319 248
Arizona 54.82% 45.18% 11 290 259
Nebraska CD-02 57.28% 42.72% 1 279 260
Wisconsin 59.59% 40.41% 10 278 270
Pennsylvania 65.81% 34.19% 20 268 290
Michigan 69.94% 30.06% 16 248 306
New Hampshire 72.28% 27.72% 4 232 310
We can see from the accumulated electoral votes columns that WI is projected to be the tipping point state and that it leans a little bit D right now. But there’s plenty of time between now and election day to move the needle so team R gets WI, PA, and MI, which is pretty much what happened last time.
Right, Joe Biden, who can’t speak a coherent sentence, excites nobody, and has a weird way about touching little girls is the “electable” candidate. Why? Because it’s what we’re told over and over so it must be so! The campaign slogan should be “Let’s lose with Joe!” so we can keep our cushy DNC jobs and remain the corporate bootlicker party. And just wait when young people start to realize that Joe was instrumental in them not being able to discharge student loan debt through bankruptcy. Do you really think they’re going to believe he’s going to fight for them now? If so I’ve got a really good deal on a bridge…
What a complete crock.