Democratic House Math

There are 6-7 republicans that are in areas that will be difficult to defend next go around. They could sway thing if they are smart and form alliances with the dems.

If they don’t they will be trying to defend the crazy that is Jim Jordan and his crew.

This is a fantasy. Not going to happen.

Have you considered CA-34? It hasn’t been called, but both candidates are Democrats. So that’s a sure win for the Ds.

It’s also a sure loss for the Ds. :cry:

(In the sense that a Democrat is guaranteed to lose the race. Not the loss of a seat, obviously.)

I’ve been following the various commentators. Most think the Rs will have a narrow majority. A big exception is Christopher Bouzy, who still thinks the D will barely win. His analysis is that the Dems are certain to win:

AK-1
CA-6
CA-9
CA-13
CA-21
CA-22
CA-34
CA-47
CA-49
ME-2
OR-6

and still quite likely to win:

CA-41
AZ-6
CO-3

I don’t know if he’s right, but I’m hopeful.

Bummer. As per 538:

“ABC News is reporting that Republican Lori Chavez-DeRemer is projected to win Oregon’s 5th District, defeating Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner. This light-blue seat is a big gain for Republicans, who now have 212 seats in the House according to ABC News estimates. McLeod-Skinner shook this race up in May when she defeated centrist Democratic Rep. Kurt Schrader in the primary, a result that caused many election observers to give the GOP a better shot of picking up this seat. That came to pass, narrowly, as Chavez-DeRemer is on course to win by about 2 points, 51 percent to 49 percent.”

Carville is stating that McCarthy is calling democrats to try to give him their vote to be speaker.

Wow! Looks like someone is trying to find a get around.

When someone is this craving for a position, I know absolutely, they should never get it.

LOL.

“Sorry Kevin, I can’t talk right now. I’m binge watching my new favorite show. I’ll send you a link.”

For the few things that actually NEED to get done, all that is necessary is for a few Republicans to vote with the majority of the Democrats.

And for the Speaker to bring it to the floor for a vote.

I read that Pelosi and Schumer are going to get the debt limit raised before the new Congress takes office. Probably be difficult to do, but better than depending on Republicans.

Pima County ballot drop very bad for Engel (D). Maybe a Republican call soon.

Great for Hobbs though. :+1:

Should have checked with Dave before that last post.

There is the discharge petition, which allows an absolute majority of House members to have a bill “discharged” from committee and brought to the floor for a vote. But there are ways for leadership to game this.

Yikes, bad batch in Orange County. CA-45 might be out of reach and Dem lead in CA-47 cut in half now under 3k votes.

CA-47 is Katie Porter. Everybody panic.

Maricopa drop probably puts AZ-01 out of reach for the Dems. Expect a call.

Lake gains on Hobbs, but not at the pace she needs to. I think AZ Gov call imminent.

I was ahead of this one.

Hilarious

But not a House seat….

OR-6 does indeed go Dem.