I sure hope he is right and it gives me some relief but we’ve been here before in 2016 so I am still cautious.
How many remaining ballots is that based on? I think it’s closer to 450K than the 550K from NYT. And that would put it more like 63% needed. (And the last small batch came in at 60%.)
To expound on why he is hopeful for Biden, here are a list of the 2020 v 2016 splits right now:
Crawford, 72% reporting, Trump @ +12 compared to 2016
Lehigh, 77%, Trump +6.7
Cumberland, 77%, Trump +7.2
Greene, 77%, Trump +22
Mercer 78%, Trump +13.8
Tioga, 79%, Trump +13.5
Monroe, 81%, Trump +3.8
Juniata, 81%, Trump +13.8
Philadelphia, 83%, Biden -6
Delaware, 84%, Biden +1.7
Carbon, 85%, Trump +12.2
I may be completely wrong, but I think the counties where there are 10% plus differences will most likely become closer, the two flipped counties (Lehigh and Monroe) will likely tighten or flip back like Bucks County did, and Philadelphia will get closer to the 67%. The growth will be on the blue side, it is just a matter of how much the difference is.
Nevada is currently 94% win probability for Biden on the betting market data I’m following. Not far from MI and WI which are 96% (and have been called):
It’s based on 531k. So if it’s only 450k then Biden only wins the state by 85k rather than 100k - assuming he continues to pick up votes at the same rate.
As I said above, it’s because it’s all mail in ballots and even in the reddest of red counties, mail-in ballots have been majority blue. Maybe not as big a majority, but a majority.
ETA: In Pennsylvania. It’s different in AZ.
It is astonishing that anything with so many votes would come in so close. Even more astonishing that we are seeing this repeated in many places across the country. Not as close as that but still within a few percent at most.
If you were writing a story and did this your editor would kick it back as unbelievable. I will be really curious to see an analysis on how it is possible for an entire country to be almost perfectly split down the middle. Over 140 million votes and a really close split. It beggars belief yet here we are.
By that standard, Trump has run the second best campaign in history, since he’ll probably come in second in the largest vote total list.
The real truth is that these totals do not reflect on either campaign (both of which had real problems), but rather just how worked up the American population is. This is not a good sign. The vote totals reflect the fact that partisanship has gotten severe, that social media has worked people into a frenzy, and that there is a lot of fear in the electorate.
This is nothing to brag about by either side. The agitation of the population is in part due to the failures of institutions, which are at or near all-time lows in public confidence. And this shit-show of an election will do nothing but amplify that.
How do all these “STATES RIGHTS!!” people feel about the way the president is trying to tell all these states they’re doing their elections wrong?
Crickets, I bet…
Why is it hopeful that Trump is doing better in almost all those counties?
I think it’s important to have an accurate understanding of what the thought process is. I don’t know for sure, but my sense was that in the initial few weeks after George Floyd’s death, support for reforms was probably rather high and across the board. But there came a point when people wanted to move on and think about something else, which is a natural tendency with these kinds of social issues.
On a human level, even people who are perhaps even a little predisposed to support the police and be skeptical of claims of brutality, seemed to sympathize. But the media coverage was probably deemed excessive. I mean George Floyd had a funeral extravaganza not even reserved for people who died in combat in the War on Terror.
I think a lot of what drives Trumpism is a perception that their story isn’t being discussed in the mainstream media, and that they are dismissed by people in large urban centers. There’s a sense that what is shown on TV isn’t relevant to them and their lives and that there’s a whole 'nother story about what’s going on in this country that isn’t being told.
In that sense, it’s not surprising that people showed up in unexpectedly large numbers to support Trump. The news covers police brutality but doesn’t talk enough about dying small towns or even towns that aren’t dying but have their own problems. Moreover, all they have heard for the last 4 years is how their guy lost the popular vote, so their support was inadequate and their guy, illegitimate. If you think of that way, I could see how a lot of voters came out and made a statement on Tuesday: “Oh yeah? We don’t represent the popular vote? Well take this motherfvcker!”
@TroutMan The PA Secretary of State just said on CNN that there are over 550k left.
It’s that Trump is doing way better than he did in 2016 in those counties. That means (likely) that the remaining votes there are actually quite blue. It is not reasonable that the state is basically even but Trump is outperforming 2016 by those margins in those counties.
That’s more than enough to flip PA for Biden then, right?
I’m not so sure the numbers will reflect this. As more votes are counted, Biden’s margin is growing considerably larger – Trump’s overall % may not be nearly as impressive.
Ok…I have to call a time-out on this for a ruling on the field.
We see MAGA people constantly complaining about fake news and how the media gets them wrong.
Yet, Fox News is media and the BIGGEST media outlet in the country. IIRC Rush Limbaugh was the most listened to radio station in the country. For many, many years.
Ok…so channel 1 says “A” and channel 2 says “B”…so what?
Trumpers have no issue with access to the media and getting their message out. None. At. All.
What am I missing?
I was referring to Chuck Todd being hopeful. The reason to be hopeful is that the larger Trump shares are probably not truly reflective of the reality of voting in those areas. Two reasons for this: 10+% swings on a county by county basis are fairly uncommon. Trump may increase his share % by 5-6%, but most likely not 10+%. The other reason is that the vast majority, if not all, of the remaining votes are mail-in, which are breaking heavy towards Biden. In the counties where 95%+ of the votes reported, the largest Trump gains in any county was less than 4%, and in many he is underperforming. Those double digit percentage leads are not sustainable.
Delusion, denial, hatred, etc. Nothing rational, I think.
Hmm, no. They need to take some Metamucil.
I agree, and it drives me bonkers. It’s been all about you for 200 years. You can’t let someone else have the spotlight for 5 fucking minutes before saying “fuck it, the left abandoned us, time to go fascist”?