Well, it almost has to be because Clinton lost Ohio by eight points in 2016. Biden will lose Ohio but it won’t be by that much.
I just moved back to my home state of VA from NJ. May have to move back
New Jersey is on track tonight to become the 12th state to legalize recreational marijuana.
Whoever wrote that has egg on their face. The current results don’t support what that article claims.
VA always has a massive Republican lead when half the vote is in, and always flips blue in the end. R-leaning areas are small and rural and report quickly, and D-leaning areas take forever.
Chris Christie just said on ABC that he thinks Trump will win Ohio by 1 to 2 points. Maybe … but, if so, it’s not such a bad result for Biden in terms what it implies for other states because that’s basically what the polls showed there. If Biden loses Ohio by 1 or 2, he’s probably winning Pennsylvania, in other words.
Biden leads in OH but Trump is closing the gap. Biden leads by 23,000 votes with 68% of the votes in.
Well, he’s not losing. So far Trump has done much better than expected in the southeast (almost certainly winning Florida/GA/NC). But he’s doing worse than expected in Texas and Ohio, although not necessarily enough so to actually cost him those states. So the big question is which of those trends will apply to PA/MI/WI/AZ, which are the real prize. Biden is certainly underperforming projections… but he had some underperformance to give. 538 claims that the quick early call on CO is a promising sign for Biden, for what it implies in AZ.
AZ will be key.
Odds have moved significantly to Trump in past 30 mins
Here’s one for you; Ohio keeps accepting mailed ballots until November 13, as long as they’re postmarked by today.
I did my job.
You come back after eight years to say that?
I gonna go to bed right now. Cuz right now there’s still hope. I’m afraid if I wait any longer, the picture will change and I won’t be able to sleep.
The potential surprise would be Michigan if the turnout is bad
I did not hear that but Hispanics are a conservative bunch. If republicans didn’t try so hard to piss them off they’d get a huge voting block.
I think it shows the increasing difficulty of obtaining truly random samples in polling. It’s an arms race pitting fast-changing technology that results in fast-changing social behaviors on the one side versus the pollsters struggling to devise ever more sophisticated and complicated ways to extract random samples from the population.
But technology’s winning and its lead over te pollsters is increasing exponentially. Maybe the polling “anomalies” we saw in 2016 weren’t anomalies so much as the leading edge of the eventual end of “easily” obtained poll samples.
We here out west in CA did our jobs!
Wisconsin is starting to report and is very close, but the different rules from state to state are such that I have no idea who should take heart from that.
Yeah I’ll be back in another 4…
Who is the main guy on CNN? What’s his name? The guy in the blue suit and gray hair?