Election Day [Week][Month[s]] [Year] 2020 follow-along thread

[Smapti]

@Leaper

Am I misremembering, or wasn’t it around this time in 2016 that the results were clear?

We knew Donald had won just before midnight ET. That’s not going to happen this time.

[I_Love_Me_Vol.I]

@BeepKillBeep

They’re not predicting that. It is just the simple sum of the states where Trump or Biden have won or are leading. They’ve been very clear that many of the states will not be known for days (not on the website). I wish I had not of posted it. I just thought it was interesting that if the election ended right the second Trump would win.

Of course they are not actually predicting it. Yet their webpage does show Trump with 278 EVs. No where does it say that is only a prediction. Plus, it’s a really bad prediction anyway this early in the race. Below it it state that once somebody has more than 270 they win.

Its just very misleading!

[susan]

My local paper is showing an incredibly deceptive map that is a mix of states AP projects and states where whoever is ahead in the count -> the color of the state (with no explanation).

[Smapti]

Looks like the Senate race in GA is going to a runoff.

[RickJay]

@I_Love_Me_Vol.I

Of course they are not actually predicting it, yet their webpage shows Trump with 278 EVs. Below it it state that once somebody has more than 270 they win.

Its just very misleading!

It’s not at all well presented, you’re right. The NYT and WaPo pages do a much better job of clearly indicating what’s in the bag and what’s just a guess.

[Mike_Mabes]

@asahi

The feeling I’m getting now is that the entire message about COVID might have been wildly misread. Whereas we assumed that this was a campaign about getting a pandemic under control, it just might have been a campaign about jobs and livelihood

May be. But in Wisconsin, COIVD cases are spiking and I read the other day that Whitmer had a 60% approval on COVID. But, is there evidence of greater Republican turnout today?

[Aji_de_Gallina]

What are CNN, ABC, and NBC waiting to call TX and FL for Trump?

[DrDeth]

@RickJay

He wins through PA, MI, and WI,

Yep, those are the big Three, but they all count mail in last.

[I_Love_Me_Vol.I]

@RickJay

It’s not at all well presented, you’re right. The NYT and WaPo pages do a much better job of clearly indicating what’s in the bag and what’s just a guess

Right. Plus, the CBC audience is largely non-American and thus understands the Electoral College even less than Americans.

[FlikTheBlue]

So what is Biden’s likeliest path? AZ + MI + WI + NE-2 and assume the VA will turn blue when all the votes are counted? Do any of you still have hope for PA?

[Smapti]

@Aji_de_Gallina

What are CNN, ABC, and NBC waiting to call TX and FL for Trump?

Presumably because there are still enough outstanding votes to potentially change the outcome.

[Smapti]

@FlikTheBlue

So what is Biden’s likeliest path? AZ + MI + WI + NE-2 and assume the VA will turn blue when all the votes are counted? Do any of you still have hope for PA?

Biden is highly likely to win PA once the final count is in.

[Sunny_Daze]

@RickJay

No, no, they do not. 538 doesn’t do an ongoing projection. They stopped yesterday.

You’re right. They posted a new model and I’ve been updating it when results come in. It’s a model, but I read it as "if x, y, and z happen then EVC results look like this, and the likelihood of the results changes as follows.

[Heffalump_and_Roo]

@Smapti

ID, MS, AK, and MT will all but certainly go Trump, and Biden is a lock to win MN, HI, and probably ME and IA. Those are all safe states.

CBS saying that the election might not be called tonight but not explicitly saying it. The Trump camp is hopeful, according to CBS. The Biden camp is slightly nervous with the narrowing margins, but still positive.

[TroutMan]

@Smapti

OH won’t even finish accepting mail-in votes until the 13th.

There simply aren’t enough votes left in OH to flip it. Biden’s shortfall is currently 420K. There are around 540K votes left to count in counties that went for Clinton, and 210K in counties that went for Trump. And most of those votes, even in Clinton’s counties, are day-of voting and skew Trump.

[robby]

@Lamoral

I truly would not be so emotionally invested in this if it were not for COVID. Trump was an aggravating and odious presence for his first three years, but ultimately I could remain detached very easily. NOW, things are VERY different. He has proven that he is NOT going to do jack shit about containing this pandemic, and it’s abundantly clear to me that his strategy is to just wait for a vaccine to come out. I can read him like a fucking book. He has NO plan for dealing with this. He’s just hoping like hell that a vaccine will be rolled out. But this could take years. If he is re-elected, we are going to have, not hundreds of thousands, but MILLIONS of deaths until that vaccine arrives. We will have to get used to the reality of second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth, waves and so on and so on, while all the rest of the world eventually goes back to normal, we will be the bitch of the bunch. The world’s bitch.

God help us.

Along with the U.S. definitely leaving the W.H.O., and the Paris Climate Agreement, this will also likely be the end of NATO. And the Tongass National Forest. Not to mention the rule of law in the U.S.

I’ve been so emotionally invested with making it to January 2021 when I hoped Trump would be gone. I’m not sure I can make it through four more years of this shit (assuming Trump hasn’t declared himself President-for-Life by then).

There was a book written a few years ago: What’s the Matter with Kansas?

I now ask: What the fuck is the matter with America?

[Slash1972]

@asahi

The feeling I’m getting now is that the entire message about COVID might have been wildly misread. Whereas we assumed that this was a campaign about getting a pandemic under control, it just might have been a campaign about jobs and livelihood. So this is to say that when Biden and blue state officials talk about shutting businesses down for public health reasons, maybe voters are just tired of living this way and Trump is their way of saying it

Yes. Exit poll reported by NBC said this. Fix the economy and THEN fix the virus was the exit poll result.

[Dr.Colossus]

So let’s all take a big gulp of calm the fuck down, maybe?

So far the truth is Trump is over-performing from expectations but Biden still has a few pathways to win. ALL is not lost. (not ALL).

The bottom line is this country is far, far more lost than we thought, and for whatever reason the hateful orange ape appeals to some basal reptile remnant inside the brain of far, far too many Americans. They are too ashamed to admit supporting him for polls to be useful at this point but put their money on him in the end.

We have a new reality. Nothing we trusted works anymore. All is not lost, not yet–things are better than in 2016. But let’s not “woe-is-me” wallow in it, and let’s start figuring out what the fuck is wrong and cut the cancer out.

FWITW this is the most optimism you’ll be getting from me ever. I’m so ashamed of this country.

[Smapti]

@TroutMan

There simply aren’t enough votes left in OH to flip it.

The media would have called it for Donald if that were true.

[RickJay]

@FlikTheBlue

So what is Biden’s likeliest path? AZ + MI + WI + NE-2 and assume the VA will turn blue when all the votes are counted? Do any of you still have hope for PA?

PA is probably still likely to go Biden at this point. Look at the county by county results. Biden will pick up a huge number of votes in Philly and Pittsburgh - they are by far the lowest reporting places i nthe state and they’re extremely Democratic.