I’m sure they can make another copy. They certainly still have the ink/toner.
Might not be that razor thin. Depends on PA and GA, which are promising for Biden.
The voting in the House will be by delegation — i.e. all the house members from a state will vote for candidates and whomever gets the most votes is that state’s vote for President. Whichever candidate gets a majority of states wins. Currently, Republicans have a majority of state delegations.
Fair enough, my reason was too simplistic, but I stand by the prediction that Dems won’t pick up seats.
In 2018, the economy was doing well (thanks, Obama) so there wasn’t the typical backlash against the incumbent. Things will be different in 2022 - the economic hole will take longer than that to dig out of.
And there’s still the small-state bias of the Senate that could be a permanent disadvantage for Dems.
There are about twenty percent of votes in Pennsylvania remaining to be counted. These are mail-in ballots and typically Democrats tend to vote by mail while Republicans vote in person so it’s entirely possible that Pennsylvania may end up voting Democratic.
Way I’m looking at it, the best Biden can hope for is exactly 270. One faithless elector …
So, even if the House is in D majority rule, a vote would favor trump? Crap.
Yuppers
With this new estimate, AZ is not looking like a sure thing. I estimate that 40% of the remaining vote has to be Biden for him to win. The batch of ballots they reported between 5:45 and 10:49 am were 35% Biden.
Except this is similar to what happened in 2016. Is there evidence of fraud then? Charging the GOP with voter fraud is serious business and one better have good evidence.
The other factor in 2018 was that more Democrats were up for re-election than Republicans. If I’m reading the 2016 results correctly, there will be 22 GOP incumbents in 2022 and 12 Dems.
Anyone think that if there ever were going to be an election that turned on faithless electors, it would be this one?
I mean, I’m not saying that it will be, that I hope it will be (albeit, I do), that I predict it will be, or anything else. I’m just saying that if an election were ever ripe for it, it’s this one.
I’m going to try being optimistic, though that is not my default state of mind:
I’ve been hearing that, of the remaining states’ votes to come in, most of those are likely to be D-leaning. So if Biden keeps the D-leaning states AZ, MI, NV and WI, and he flips a current R-leaning state: either GA, NC, or PA, it puts Biden more comfortably over the top.
The ideal election for faithless electors was the 2016 race, since the electors should not have let the presidency go to Trump.
538 is reporting that the largest number of uncounted ballots in AZ are from Maricopa County, which has been +6% Biden so far.
Yeah, I thought the possibility of a trump type being elected was the whole reason the founders wanted an electoral college in the first place.
Right now Trump’s best chance is Nevada. Less than 8000 vote difference with only 2/3 of the vote. Biden has support only in Clark and Nye counties.
As for faithless electors, 8 electors did not vote for Clinton in 2016 and 6 were included. Out of 270 will ONE of them cast a vote for Kamala Harris? You may say no Dem would ever hand the election to Trump like that (he’d win in the House) but all it takes is one onosecond of thought “I’m going to make a statement” to turn it into an oh-shit moment.
I’m getting Biden needs 38% of the outstanding votes in Arizona (a little less actually but close enough).
That’s still very close…
I usually would not nitpick that 2% but this is so close that I think it matters.
Or, to put it a different way: “far left relative to an arbitrary right” is meaningless. Left and right have to have context and placement within a broader understanding of the entire political spectrum. Otherwise, you’re picking random local reference points by which to determine “far” positions. Which dosn’t show you “far left” or “far right”, just “far from here”.
Prediction: The Senate victories have proven to the Republicans that they don’t lose anything by being seen as enemies to the majority of Americans. Biden’s “get along” style from another era makes him completely ineffectual against hardball Mitch and fits into the “doddering sleepy Joe” narrative. The Senate locks everything down and pushes endless tarring investigations, but still manages to pin the label of blame for gridlock on unpopular Biden (blame falls to the president after all) + Pelosi for “failure to compromise”. 2022 goes poorly for the Dems, the only question is how poorly.
Maybe they can get around this by finding common ground - I dunno, by declaring it Infrastructure Week.