That’s why I prefer to use a more definitive scholarly view, e.g. the Nolan chart (although I’m given to understand that it is not as accepted scholarly anymore because it lacks some nuance).
(not that I want this to become too much of a tangent)
I’m rereading the fivethirtyeight.com article about when to expect results for each state, for the key states. Georgia doesn’t generally accept mailed ballots after election day (except from overseas – a small number), so once the counting of what they have now is done, we’ll likely have a result.
Pennsylvania will be accepting mailed in ballots for days – until Nov. 6, and the mailed ballots will take days to count because they could not start processing them until yesterday morning. Some counties didn’t even start to until today. So I believe the Biden camp’s claim that they may come out ahead. Pennsylvania was always going to have a big blue shift, and not have a final result for maybe a week.
Very well put, and I’ll be stealing that argument for future use, if you don’t mind.
I’d rather be in the position of hoping there isn’t a faithless elector, than hoping that there is.
If it hinges on the late-arriving ballots, it will go to SCOTUS, who’s 4/4 initial refusal to take up late-arrivals (leaving it in place for now) left plenty of room to take it up again again with 5/4 majority.
Identity politics are largely practied by the Republican Party, so they seem to work pretty well.
In election news, it is apparent Wisconsin and Michigan will remain in the Biden column. Nevada will probably switch to Trump.
Just to expand on this, from 538 (posted about 20 minute ago):
- Arizona: While Fox News and the Associated Press have projected Arizona for Biden, the other outlets — including ABC News — have not. Before the election, officials did warn that any super-close races might not be resolved until the last votes are counted on Thursday or Friday. Biden has a 3-point lead over Trump, with 86 percent of the expected vote reported. Maricopa County, where the largest remainder of uncounted ballots are, has finished tabulating all its in-person Election Day votes and will release more results at 9 p.m. tonight.
- Nevada: The race is very tight — Biden has a very slight lead — and all in-person votes have been counted. But a count of late-arriving mail ballots and provisional ballots, which tend to be Democratic, is still to come tomorrow.
All things considered here, I’d rather be Team Biden than Team Trump looking at these two states right now.
Incredibly, Nevada will not announce further results until… tomorrow. Why?
That’s kind of what happens now. Biden and Trump only made appearances in maybe 10 states.
More money for the bookies?
Most people in the state live in Clark County. It’s where Las Vegas is. I’m going to wait and see what happens as the count goes on.
Precisely. All you need is +1 to define the legislative agenda and all the committee assignments. In the Senate, you can do it with 50-50 + the VP.
The next threshold would be veto-proof majorities, or filibuster-proof in the Senate, but we haven’t seen those numbers in a while.
I’m giving my own views. I view the US as essentially centre-right, and becoming somewhat more socially liberal over decades. The Democratic Party as a whole in a US context is centre-left. In a European context, they’re probably slightly centre-right. Globally, they’d probably be centre-left, but I’m not claiming that as a fact. Elizabeth Warren and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez are among the most liberal members of Congress. They enthusiastically advocate major changes to to US policies. In my view, there’s no question that their strongly on the left side of the Democratic Party, which means they’re on the far left of the overall US political environment. In Europe, they’d be strongly left, equivalent to Jeremy Corbyn in the UK, Ségolène Royal in France (probably left of her), and Katja Kipping in Germany. None of those politicians are centre-left, nor claim to be. And again, that’s in a European context. Put those three politicians in a US context, and they’re far-left - pretty much the equivalent of part-time Democrat Bernie Sanders.
By the way, are you going to back up your statement of “fact”?
Looking at Georgia county by county, we may be looking at a recount situation. Biden is 87000 votes behind, and that corresponds awfully closely to the likely advantage he’ll have in remaining votes. Fulton County is reporting pretty much done but many other blue counties have votes to report.
Biden actually hasn’t won that many more absentee ballots so it’s not that shift that will help him, it’s county of origin.
Politically, US liberals have barely budged and conservatives have swung very, very wide right:
Here’s my analysis of what we’re seeing.
My prediction before the election was there were two possibilities. If we had a normal election, we’d see a clear Biden victory. All of the evidence said Biden had a strong lead and any normal amount of election fraud would not be enough to overcome that. So the only alternative to a clear Biden victory was that we’d have a massive amount of election fraud.
We obviously are not seeing a clear Biden victory.
My prediction was that of the two alternatives, the clear Biden victory was more likely. I didn’t think the Republicans would be willing to risk engaging in the massive amount of election fraud they’d need in order to declare Trump the winner. This is not an election where a few hundred or a few thousand votes were stolen; what we’re seeing is at least hundreds of thousands and probably millions of stolen votes.
The Republicans would not have been willing to commit that amount of election fraud unless they were sure they would not have to face the consequences. Because if they commit this amount of fraud and still lose, people are going to prison. So this is not something they can go halfway on and then stop. They have now committed themselves to having to win. They’re going to make sure Biden doesn’t pull off some last minute narrow victory.
Impossible, Trump is incapable of doing a good deed. Does not compute. General System Error.
I believe they’d do this but if Georgia or Pennsylvania report that Biden got more votes, there aren’t a lot of remaining moves.
And c’mon, they’d get away with it even if Biden was President. Why wouldn’t they?
Pence could sue as Trump has no legal right to fire another elected official.
Recounts, lawsuits, get states to make their electors vote another way, bribe electors…it’s not over. I have no doubt the Trump admin and republicans will do anything whatsoever to win. Legal and ethical are not things they consider.