Yeah, I didn’t realize that was a court-created extension. Even without Barrett, that would be iffy to have upheld. Regardless, even the “mail-in” ballots received (including hand delivered) by the close of the polls will take a long time to count. So, hopefully it won’t come down to the ones received after that.
We’ve seen this for weeks. The USPS nonsense is obvious, but there was a lot more happening.
Lawsuits will happen, of that there’s little doubt.
But I believe the reported results are primarily mail-in, and the remaining votes are day-off. The spread could be very different between those.
Why do you think that? According the NYT, the remaining ballots are mail-in ballots received yesterday or still to come, and provisional ballots. Both those favor Biden.
Dems spent $200 mil total in SC and KY senate races. And both of the races were not close. That cash could have been spent in other states that ended up close like here in NC
Yes, it depends on the way you look at it 
. The BEST Biden can hope for is 311 - basically winning on late counts on every disputed state. That’s pretty unlikely IMHO, though not impossible. Though technically he could end right now where he is at 227, I think realistically the worst he can probably do is about 243 (that’s assuming wins in WI and MI which seem very likely and losses in every other contested state). So there is still a bit of election left.
However while it is far from a done deal, I think more than 270 is quite possible. I’ve been staring at the Georgia county map and playing with my calculator and I think it might just flip - it will be close and we should know today. If that happens and the lead holds in AZ, Biden could lose Nevada and still get to 270. If PA flips and some seem confidant it is still in play, that’s 290. If NV holds that’s 296. I just don’t think NC gets there, so that is about as high as I can bring myself to hope.
I think Georgia makes “vote fraud” a harder sell. Lindsay Graham winning another six year term but having been sufficiently challenged changes the regional dynamics a little as well. But if Trump wins in GA and NC, then he can put the pressure on in PA, WI, and MI. He doesn’t necessarily hold all the cards but he can make life difficult for democrats in these areas and make the country go through a lot of unnecessary turmoil.
I’m also not 100% sold on AZ being in the win column for Biden just yet. He’s about as close as one can be without victory fully declared but it’s not quite over there IMO, not given the state’s political history
GOP: Pence? Who’s Pence? Any of you guys remember someone named Pence?
Yeah I missed that fact on Nevada, so Biden will win it, and he’s up to 260 with that, MI, and WI; Wisconsin’s secretary of state announced they oonly have a few hundred votes left and Biden’'s up by 30,000 so that’s done. Michigan is the same as Wisconsin, apparently.
That leaves Biden with 260 (he took NE-2.) He ekes out a win with any remaining state, including Arizona.
Georgia’s remaining vote total is unclear to me so I am not sure if Biden can catch up. Pennsylvania is just miles and miles behind and it could be days to go before we know who won it.
There are two data points in this chart I cannot agree with (and I usually have a high degree of respect for the Economist): down on the left, the German CDU and CSU could not be more liberal and less populist without falling off the chart. Sorry, that is not true, neither the CDU nor the CSU are that liberal nor are they at the opposite extreme from populism. They Christian Democrats, nothing radical, but no liberal saints either.
And the Spanish Vox and the French Front National being more liberal than Trump 2016 is… hard to swallow. Both around 0.5 in an index that ranges from 0 to 1? And more liberal than Trump? Come on…
That chart is in need of serious recalibration.
I’ve got Biden currently on track for a hard-fought 295, if the late surge holds. If Trump gets some of the mail-in, he could possibly still win.
Yes Biden will win it! It’s just a matter of time. Finally, something good in 2020. Something very good!
NY Times (Nate Cohn) just published a “where we stand” summary of the 7 outstanding states. Pretty much every state gives Biden reason for optimism: he’s either leading, or trailing by an amount that can be reasonably overcome by the votes remaining to be counted. Least likely to go for Biden is North Carolina.
As of Sunday, the overall “on-time movement” percentage of mailed ballots" was in the low 90s. But, “Just 62% of Central Pennsylvania’s ballots, and 64% of Atlanta’s ballots moved on-time on Saturday.”
Pennsylvania’s and Atlanta’s numbers have been far below national averages. If Trump wins Georgia by a small margin, this will be one reason why that happened. Potentially thousands of mailed ballots will go uncounted because USPS didn’t deliver them by the deadline.
And if the Supreme Court considers whether to allow the Pennsylvania late-arriving ballots to be counted, this ought to be a consideration. (I don’t think it really will be, though.)
A President has enough power to make things difficult even for a party that has control of Congress and the court system.
I believe Biden will win. But with disapointment of how close it is and the anxiety last night, I don’t even feel like celebratinig. But damn, Trump will gone soon. He will
I am pretty sure Trump wins PA. The number of remaining votes isn’t enough for Biden to catch up, based on the NYT’s numbers. The NYT is still bullish on Biden but the numbers make no sense to me.
Thinking about 2024, there are a lot of Californians unhappy with the Democratic policies moving to Las Vegas. I’m predicting solid purple next election.
Yes but the closeness of this race is not a vindication for Trump (not that you said that; that’s from another thread). It’s an indicator of how divided the country is. I see Biden making great strides towards sewing up the wounds.
But I believe the reported results are primarily mail-in, and the remaining votes are day-off. The spread could be very different between those <
This eight-hour old tweet says the in-person vote from Maricopa county is all in, AZ still has hundreds of thousands of early votes to count, and that we shouldn’t expect to hear any results from them until around 7 this evening.