A recount will happen in Wisconsin, but that said, Biden has won it by 30,000, and in 2016, the recount changed the result by only just over a hundred votes.
In more positive news, Kanye West has officially conceded.
383 votes, it was reported earlier today. (ETA, CNN or FOX, can’t recall. I switch back and forth)
AP via NPR has not called Wisconsin.
More humorous news anyway, and I’ll take it!
The note for “illiberalism” says that it is measuring commitment to the democratic process. I don’t know if those two parties are more authoritarian in that sense.
By my back-of-the-napkin calculations Biden needs to get 58.5% of the outstanding votes in PA to win.
Spotted on Facebook:
“Election news update: early polling indicates that Kanye West and Jo Jorgenson are more or less splitting the coveted Was About To Vote When Someone Bumped Into Me demographic. More on this as it develops…”
The race wasn’t particularly close. Biden got a lot more votes, regardless of what happens from here.
Yeah, I think it is possible. The problem with napkin-math though is that the number of outstanding votes is not quite nailed down. I’ve heard “millions”, the suspiciously precise “1.4 million”, “well over 1 million”, etc - I’m not sure I fully trust anybody to have a good idea at this point.
Possible tangent, but … how were all the polls so wrong (again)? Trump easily won states that were called toss-ups (FL, TX, IA) and may yet win states that were polling as clear Biden wins (PA, AZ, NV).
Or is it actual, as-yet-unexplained as proposed by @Little_Nemo and others?
The Fox News analyst defending the Fox call (Source):
Arnon Mishkin, the director of the Fox News Decision Desk, told viewers that “it’s been clear for a while that the former vice president is in the lead in Arizona and was most likely to win the state.”
“Yes, there are some outstanding votes in Arizona,” Mishkin said. “Most of them are coming from Maricopa, where Biden is currently in a very strong position. And many of them are mail-in votes where we know from our Fox News voter analysis Biden has an advantage.”
He added that the president will likely win 44 percent of the outstanding vote when he needs at least 61 percent.
Granted. I am using the numbers on the NYTimes page. No reason to think they are an authority on it but I would guess they are close(ish). About as reliable as you and I are likely to find.
The different news organizations have been explaining why the polls were so wrong.
I have zero faith in Little_Nemo’s conspiracy theory
I am curious at what seems to be an abundance of unusually close races.
I am no statistician but that seems unusual. Are so many states really so evenly split that they are coming down to a percent or two difference?
I’m not ready for the tin-hat conspiracy theories yet but I can feel them percolating.
Why were they so wrong? (I haven’t seen those stories yet)
Only if Mother lets him.
I’m starting to lean your way. There is suspicion that the NYT is significantly overestimating the number of remaining ballot in Philadelphia. Last I saw, NYT was estimating over 800K ballots total, but city commissioners are saying there will be 670K.
Here’s one article from USA Today:
I like your optimism.