Thanks! That makes me feel much better.
It seems like they are saying the polling errors seem to be 3% and that is normal polling error so the polls weren’t wrong.
AP/NPR map has PA as light pink.
I was replying to Akaj who said the polls were wrong (again).
And I found a USA article that talked about such claims.
That map shows who leads in tallied votes. We are estimating guessing the final vote count based on how many remaining ballots there are, and where they are coming from.
DeJoy failed to obey a court order to sweep up all uncollected mail-in ballots in several states, including Michigan and Arizona, both of which where Biden is winning and require ballots to be received on election day, not merely postmarked. How ironic would it be if that’s the reason Trump loses?
I would probably literally (not really) die laughing if that happened.
I understand. I was responding to comments about how different sources were interpreting and conveying trends. I should have replied to a specific post, but I did just read 300 of them to catch up!
If I’m reading your graph correctly, the 2018 Democrats are roughly equivalent to Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour on a (il)liberalism index. That was a very liberal Labour Party by recent Labour standards - far more so than Blair/Brown or the current party under Starmer. I’m not sure I buy that, but I’ll go with the cite you’ve provided. That index has the overall 2018 Democrats at a rating of around 0.12. So what would the rating be of the most liberal members of the Democratic Party? 0.2? 0.5? That pretty much supports the premise that Warren and Ocasio-Cortez are far-left, unless you want to use an extreme definition.
The graph also indicates that the Republican Party became only slightly less liberal under Trump’s first two years. Do you believe that to be true?
Also, if you average the 2018 Democrats and Republican indexes, it comes in around the Freedom Party of Austria. I’d say that strong-right modern-day Austria is roughly equivalent to centre-right US.
Having said that, that graph has France’s National Front party as moderates. That strikes me as a dubious assessment.
So, you’re reading the New York Times site? Did you see this?
President Trump leads by nearly 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania as of 5 a.m. on Wednesday, and Mr. Biden’s chances depend on whether he can win a large percentage of the more than 1.4 million absentee ballots that remain to be counted.
So far, Mr. Biden has won absentee voters in Pennsylvania, 78 percent to 21 percent, according to the Secretary of State’s office.
So according to this, he needs ~67% of those 1.4 million absentee ballots to catch up. He’s been winning absentee ballots at a rate of 78%.
Corbyn led the Labour Party but he was always a left wing leader of a moderate party. He never fit well there
Note that the blue line goes back to 1982. Liberals have not moved to the left. At all. Conservatives have moved to the right. This almost certainly has moved the Overton Window to the right.
Now, all of a sudden, you think AOC and others are some kind of weird superliberal when they aren’t. They are normal liberal.
Your perspective is skewed.
They became more populist.
I think Trump just gave voice to the already present extreme right perspective.
In the Maine senate election, incumbent Republican Susan Collins is claiming that Democratic candidate Sara Gideon has conceded in a telephone call. We have yet to hear publicly from Gideon. I was surprised to hear this, because according to the latest results I saw, Collins had slipped just below 50%. If Collins finishes below 50% in the first round, an instant runoff is triggered. In the first phase of the instant runoff, the fourth place finisher (a Trump-loving independent) would have his votes (about 1.5% of the total) reallocated to his voters’ second choice. It’s by no means certain that this would be enough to put Collins over the top. Conservative voters in Maine have a tendency to leave the second and later choices blank, either as a protest against the ranked-choice system that they never supported, or (less charitably) because they’re too stupid to understand how the relatively new system works. If yet another round of reallocation is required to give somebody the majority, the votes would be taken from the third-place finisher, who has over 4% of the vote and is an independent probably to the left of Gideon. Her votes would go overwhelmingly to Gideon, I should think.
Yup, that’s where I’m getting my numbers. The fear is that the estimate of 1.4 million remaining ballots is not accurate. For example, if it’s only 1.2M, then he needs to capture 70% of them. If it’s 1M, he needs 73-74%. Doable, but by no means a sure thing.
What!?!?!?!
That senate race is in play???
Man…I thought Collins ran away with it. Still bummed it is close but very glad to see it is still in play.
Question: Does a candidate calling an opponent to concede end it? Does a candidate conceding publicly end their race? If something changes is it too late? No take-backs?
Somehow I doubt that.
Nope. Gore famously took back his concession in 2000 when Florida looked much closer than expected.
Political concessions are not legally binding, no more than refusing to concede will stop an election from concluding.
Politico posted the following updates about Georgia:
“An estimated 200,000 votes remain uncounted in Georgia, officials say — that’s more than double Trump’s current margin over Biden in the state.”
And,
“Of the 200,000 uncounted votes in Georgia, most come from left-leaning areas of metropolitan Atlanta, suggesting they’re likely to skew Democratic.”
Gore famously took back his concession to Bush when the problems in Florida became clear.
Coming back from a bike ride, I saw that the 2 houses nearest me w/ Trump signs had taken them down this morning (including the assholish “Make Liberals Cry Again”). Hoping that is a sign of unease among Trump supporters.