So I skipped over eleven or twelve hundred posts to say this: Last week I told an out of state friend that Presidential election cycles are like my Superbowl, my World Series. He agreed I was too keyed up and we would talk after the election.
So today i got a voice mail from him asking if “my Superbowl” was at half time? Third Quarter? Two Minute Warning? How much game is there still to be played?
My reply is that I feel like we are waiting for the officials to rule on a contested call in the last one point eight (1.8) seconds of game six in a seven game series where we won the first three games - but then a fifth game was forced (in effin Miami-Dade), and a sixth game. Now we have a one or two point lead but the other team has possession and are asking the officials to put two minutes back on the clock and reverse the foul that put their star player out of the game so they can win and force a game seven. (On their home court, with officials they appointed.)
Gideon has now publicly conceded the senate race in Maine. Maybe she knows something I don’t, but I have a feeling her concession might be premature. None of the media outlets is projecting a winner yet despite the concession.
I am honestly considering that, weirdly, Biden might have a better shot at Georgia. He needs one of them because even with AZ and NV he stalls at 260 without them. But Georgia is going to be very close and like NC might not quite be able to get over that hump. We should get a call there today. If Biden doesn’t win there we might be chewing our nails into next week.
My optimism in PA is centered on the counties with complete counts. If you scroll down the list here you see that Trump is at or under 2016 margins in all of them. The suburban counties that are complete (Dauphin, Northampton) show pretty big swings to Biden. It’s only in the counties that haven’t completed their tabulations where you see big Trump margins. The consistency of that makes me think that it’s an artifact of the order votes are counted, not some swing in Trump’s favor.
Look at something like Monroe county. It currently is Trump+25 with 59% reporting. It was basically even in 2016. Does that seem right to you? Or is it more likely that they just haven’t tabulated and submitted their early votes yet? On the county website it shows ~47,000 votes counted with all precincts reporting. In 2016 they had ~70k votes there.
I also read the tea leaves from the Trump camp as well. They say “we will win Arizona”. But they say “we will win legally cast ballots” in PA.
So, now my co-worker is saying there were more ballots cast in Wisconsin than there are registered voters.The Dems are up to no good. No cite - a friend of his sister-in-law or something who lives there is making the claim… He claims to be against mail-in ballots as a matter of principle. The fact that he is a hard core Trumper has nothing to do with it.
I’m reminded of the segment on STV I heard on NPR recently in which the 5th or 6th place contestant won or almost won. I think the moral of the story is never concede a non-fptp race.
It shouldn’t matter in Maine - under their ranked choice system, if no candidate gets 50% then the candidate with the least votes has their second choice votes distributed among the remaining candidates.
This is all over the place - it’s bullshit. They’re using a number from registered voters in the primary. 400,000 more voters registered since then, AND Wisconsin is a day-of-election registration state.
Here ya go. Send them this. It probably won’t do any good but you do what you can:
From that article:
According to the Wisconsin Election Commission, the “State of Wisconsin had 3,684,726 active registered voters on November 1, 2020.” It’s unclear where the “3,239,920” number shown in the above-displayed tweet comes from. As of this writing, The New York Times reports that a total of “3,296,836” votes have been cast in Wisconsin. In either case, the number of votes counted does not exceed the number of registered voters.
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