I think we’ve seen that it doesn’t matter that it is bullshit. It will get repeated enough by those whom that lie benefits that it will eventually be the truth.
For the next 2.5 months, should Biden win, there is going to be so much of this type of shit repeated that we will have four years of Fox News, Breitbart et al spouting about how the left stole the election.
The only thing Ive learned last night and over the last generation is that the United States might be irreparably broken snd Im more than a bit worried that Canada is headed down a similar path.
Nevada has announced they will not release new totals until tomorrow morning. I believe 9am local time. But there may be one more update from Washoe County before then - it’s not clear. If that does happen it will give us a picture of the type of ballots outstanding at least, since it’s currently Biden+4 (and was only D+1.2 last cycle).
Nevada is sort of the mirror of PA in that the counties fully reported do in fact look redder than in 2016. And Clark County (Vegas) is about 2 points under where Clinton was. Is that due to the order of counting or a true shift in the voting pattern?
So here’s my question: media are reporting that Trump and Republicans are gearing up to launch multiple lawsuits in states where Trump has or looks like he will narrowly lose. Are the Democrats ramping up to challenge results in states Biden narrowly lost or is trailing like NC, GA and PA? Are they just going to play defense?
Yeah that is broadly the method I use to look at state counts. It becomes more complicated because of the mail-in vote issue but if you focus on counties that are say 98% or more done that should not be a problem.
So looking at the 31 counties that are 98% or more done, and comparing Trump’s margin to his 2016 margin and weighting for the number of votes I think what you get is that Biden is running around 2.3% ahead of Hillary. Since she lost by less than a point, he may be winning by 1.5 points or so. Of course all this is speculative and assumes that these counties are approximately representative of the state. Still it’s a data point.
Thank you! It has been a while, but usually error should be random, not all in one direction. It has been two elections of all the error going one way. This seems like bad polling.
There is little utility in doing so. Trump has been a) the president and b) ramping up to make these challenges for the past year. They’re not going to be legitimately persuasive arguments; they’re political arguments. The exception, of course, is that if there’s some genuine ratfuckery going on, that can and should be challenged. But that isn’t what this strategy is about.
They’re going to say “wah wah, we should be allowed to do stuff in the states we’re losing! Stop the count!” It doesn’t matter what the stuff is, or what the argument is. They just want to fuck with the vote counts, and they’re hoping that a friendly court will accept one or some of those arguments and let them slash ballots off the rolls in sufficient quantity.
If the Democrats try to do that, the odds of a court saying “that is false and in incredibly bad faith… but I’ll allow it!” are relatively quite low, compared to Trump getting away with it.
I’ve been following along with the conservative subreddit (I’m always interested in other points of view). While most of it is the typical rabid madness you might expect, the more thoughtful posts seems to indicate that they are as convinced that the Democrats have stolen this election, as I’m sure the Democrats would be if Trump had won (or wins since it isn’t over yet).
And to fully belabor the PA data, I dug a bit more into Monroe County (since it is way down in what it has reported).
Apparently, their procedure is to count early votes today and tomorrow from 10a-5p and only once it is all complete to add it to the machine count from election day and post an update. So unless they get it all done today (or change their procedure to allow a partial release), we probably won’t get those votes until tomorrow.
I don’t know if the Governor or SoS or anybody can lean on them to speed it up or if it’s just the way things go there.
0.12 on a scale of (il)liberalism ranked from 0 (100% liberal) to 10 (0% liberal). By that scale, depending on how the distribution is viewed, 88% of European political parties are to the right of the Democratic Party. That indicates the Democratic party is hugely left, if you trust your graph.
Also, do you really believe that the 2018 Democratic Party is only slightly more liberal than 1982 Reagan Republicans? That admittedly hurts my theory that Warren and Ocasio-Cortez are far-left politicians, but supports my theory that the US is centre-right. That means that the US Republican Party was hugely liberal in 1982 by modern standards, but has moved away from liberalism. I know you agree with the “moved away” bit, but do you really believe that the 2018 Republican Party is 4 1/2 times more conservative than the Democratic Party? Should this board start praising Reagan as centre-left moderate?