Chip did not seem to like attention being paid to his vote for Rysto at all, it struck me as an overreaction, but is not necessarily a scummy trait. It is certainly a data point for later consideration though.
@peeker
I wondered straight away if the vote against me was placed with the intention of avoiding the spotlight - a nice, easy case on a noob who just put himself on everyone’s suspect list by disagreeing with popular opinion. Since then, I have challenged you to make a case, and explained why the possible-PIS thing means little on its own. But, having been given the opportunity to back up your vote with words, you have chosen to twiddle your thumbs instead.
Having already made a vote against Hal for possible hiding, I’m wary about throwing down too many ‘on principle’ votes. There are always innocents who can be painted as scummy thanks to their caution, disengagement, and/or lack of imagination. I’ve acted that way myself on occasion, and I’ve lost games by wrongly focusing on somebody for behaving like that.
However, in light of Naf’s testimony regarding your prior history, and given just how limp-wristed your response to my challenge has been, I think it’s time to put my money where my mouth is…
vote peekercpa
Well, I was hoping to get a stronger read on someone, anyone, before the Day was up. But I don’t know if I’ll be around again before the end of the Day.
vote telcontar
I’m not feeling great about this, maybe 30-40%, but that’s (probably) still better odds than any random person and it’s the best I have right now.
Care to share any reasoning with the rest of the class, Chip? Even if you made a case before, link to it–I can’t recall who said what in a 2000+ post game with 30 people in it.
VOTE COUNT
Oredigger77 - 11 votes - Drain Bead (716), special ed (717), lilflower (732), Idle Thoughts (733), Texcat (798), Cometothe…Cookies (875), GuiriEnEspana (879), Hal Briston (882), Astral Rejection (888), One and Only Wanderers (985), Telcontar (1025)
Telcontar - 4 votes - Normal Phase (1010), brewha (1015), Mahaloth (1018), Chipacabra (1043)
Chipacabra - 3 votes - USCDiver (812), Natlaw (871), Rysto (1037)
NAF1138 - 2 votes - Oy! (758), Stanislaus (890)
peekercpa - 2 votes - NAF1138 (1036), Mrs McGinty (1042)
Mrs. McGinty - 1 vote - peekercpa (755)
NO LYNCH - 1 vote - Oredigger77 (898)
Day ends today (Saturday). Unfortunately, I will be out of the house until 5:00PM, so the actual Dusk will not fall until then, but voting is closed and all Day actions are due by the timestamp of 3:00PM Eastern Standard Time (New York City); votes and actions timestamped 3:00 will still count.
Thanks!
Just finished Second Read.
As things stand, Oredigger will be lynched by a comfortable margin. Votes stand (by my strictly unofficial reckoning) at Oredigger 11, Telcontar 4, Chipacabra 3, NAF1138 2, Peekercpa 1, Hal Briston 1 (Mrs. McG didn’t unvote Hal so I didn’t count her vote for Peeker. Storyteller may, in which case the count needs to be amended accordingly.)
My gut feeling on Oredigger is that he is not Town. The third party feel I had from him earlier has shifted because he has not voted for himself, and has disappeared for the Day ([post=13004311]I think[/post]). The imperative for third-party claimants is to survive. Not voting feels to me something like a Deadite might do to not draw attention to his buddies. This pushes me towards an Oredigger lynch.
Vote Oredigger.
I’m going back to review a couple of cases in case I find a better candidate, after a couple of notes.
Well, humph. it appears Storyteller counted the switch. Also, I missed a No Lynch vote from Oredigger. (Blame it on being past midnight when I got to that post.) Not that it makes much difference to my analysis, as voting No Lynch and not voting are pretty much equivalent when it comes to not dropping clues about fellow Deadites. It’s also a bad idea in and of itself, since it undoes any gains Romanic leaving the game made for Town. Although putting forward a bad idea is not a reason to vote a player, the Deadite motive (making up lost ground) is an additional factor.
The promised notes.
-
NAF speculated about the Oredigger train getting “derailed.” I don’t agree that there was an effort to stop it. What I did see reading through was a pause in the stream of votes. Oredigger ran up 5 votes quite quickly, then there was a gap of over 60 posts (nearly 8 hours) to Texcat’s vote, and another 50 (14 hours but including a night) to NAF’s. I’d call that coasting, rather than a derailment, myself. There’s no real evidence of an alternative bandwagon starting up in that period; I can see five votes placed on four separate players between posts 734 and 845 (and let’s not forget that Normal Phase unvoted and revoted in that span, just to register a vote on Drain Bead.)
-
I have to disagree with Drain Bead over whether it’s better to point out a potential power role slip. In this game, if you select five players completely at random from 28, the chance that none of them are Deadites are 46.9% at best (that is, if there are only two Deadites - the bare minimum.) If half the players notice, the chance that both the Deadites remain oblivious is 5.3%. These chances fall the larger you make the Deadite team (41.5% and 4.7% respectively for a 5-player Deadite team.)
Cecil Pond is very much an outlier, and I’d recommend players not generalise from it.
OK,
unvote NAF
What I thought I saw hasn’t, on further inspection, turned out to be there. Which annoys the hell out of me because now I need a new case and have very little time.
vote Telcontar
I agree that his case against NAF looks very opportunistic - trying to make him a scapegoat.
MHaye - do you think third-parties have been given cover roles?
I don’t know.
When I first thought Oredigger was acting like a third party, his roleclaim had slipped my mind. I saw it again partway through yesterday’s reread.
But, considering that the PFK types have the hardest row to hoe, Storyteller might have given them cover roles, to remove one obstacle.
Are we still sure that dishing is a scum tell 
This is don’t understand (if anyone didn’t catch it my comment to Ed was mostly tongue in cheek). Why did you feel the need to ask this?
For the record: I agree with both NAF’s and Ed’s way of handling Oy!-post. I was going to ask the same when I read it.
I can see Drain Bead has a strong feeling otherwise. I’m fine with us disagreeing on such matters. I just wanted to make it clear that I think all things are up for discussion. And that Oy!'s post was a great topic to discuss.
Sorry for not having been around for a while. Been kind of busy celebrating myself 
On Telcontar.
His recent posts, especially [post=13004716]post 996[/post], have attracted some critical attention – and five votes. Now, I disagree with his central thesis, which is that NAF is Deadite because he pushed Oy! to claim. There are two aspects to it, one of which I’ve already discussed. The practical consequence of Telcontar’s approach is that some Townies and possible third parties will be ignorant of the slip, but none of the Deadites will. That’s just a bad idea, and voting for someone because they have a bad idea will discourage people from putting forth ideas.
The other is his implication that NAF somehow pushed Oy! to claim.
Oy! posted in 905. NAF’s posts between that and Oy!'s claim in 947 were :
[post=13003361]907[/post], answering the question in 905, no mention of the slip.
[post=13003415]910[/post], on the slowdown of the Oredigger bandwagon NAF thought he had detected.
[post=13003422]911[/post], pointing out the slip.
[post=13003834]920[/post], continuing the discussion of the progress of the Oredigger bandwagon.
[post=13003877]922[/post], says he doesn’t believe the Deadites would notice Vanilla roles were individualised, going off the idea of lynching Oredigger. (See also [post=13004092]946[/post]).
[post=13003960]930[/post], why he mentioned Oy!'s slip,
[post=13003970]933[/post], asks if Oy! is claiming vanilla.
[post=13003984]936[/post], explains vanilla handshake problem.
[post=13004009]940[/post], comes to understanding of Drain Bead’s reaction.
Of ten posts, only one directly asked if Oy! was claiming, and that was after she had explained why she had asked the original question. Of the other nine, three were totally unrelated to the Oy! question. Five were discussing implications with others, and one was a clarification of an error. I don’t see that as pushing for a claim from Oy!
I view this as more serious than voting for a bad idea. Something to keep in mind for future Days.
Total - Would I be right in thinking you mean “fishing” rather than “dishing” in that first question?
:smack:
Yes, indeed you would!
Looks like I woke up before the end of the Day after all.
No, I don’t really have a case for Telcontar beyond what others have said. If I did, I’d feel better than my 30% estimate.
MHaye: You know, I had figured that the deadites were the recruits or something, not necessarily the scum faction as a whole. Did I miss something?
I’m using the term from the first game. The Deadites were called the Deadites even though Brewha was in fact a living human (and therefore able to read and use the Necronomicon).
Oh, and Day is over. It ended at 8pm (just under 25 minutes ago.)
catching up…
[quote=Mrs McGinty;13006761
However, in light of Naf’s testimony regarding your prior history, and given just how limp-wristed your response to my challenge has been, I think it’s time to put my money where my mouth is…
[/quote]
In all fairness (maybe not to peeker), poorly reasoned arguments are not a Scum tell for peeker. They’re just a playstyle. He has his fair share of reasoning that no one else understands Town or Scum.
It’s one thing to make a weak case and then drop it when a better comes along.
But to twist words to fit in with a weak vote and then drop it when called on it saying the vote wasn’t based on the “fabricated” case but was to get a reaction.
That’s pinging me big time.
To add to this post after post saying “I see town on town” or “I can’t see anything scummy” just add to the little voice in my head going: PING! PING!
So I’ll
Vote Chipacabra
And would still like to know why he asked Oy! about her ability to use more than one action each Night.
Crap!
I mess up timezone - again!
Did I overlook any comments you made on the Oredigger case?
I’ll go back and check.
I’ve not said that fishing is usually a Scum tell.
However, I’m not willing to take NAF’s position that it’s rarely a Scum-tell.
That said, when people come out and implicate themselves as potential Scum, it makes sense to question them on it.