The third vote thing is crap. I’ve always hated that theory. And I’m not sure how my votes look any more opportunistic than anyone else’s. I didn’t vote for Idle, I voted for peeker. And it wasn’t late because I wasn’t voting him for the slip. I was voting him for the way he defended himself (or not, as it were).
Thanks for the smudge, though.
Not a smudge, an observation based on data. I know it isn’t a big thing, but calling it a smudge is actually fairly smudgy.
That said, I misread the chart that Guiri posted. Due to the way it formatted on my screen it looked like there was bandwagon on Idle that didn’t actually exist.
So I take back what I had to say about that. I will try to do a better voting analysis later, but like I said it’s not really my strong suit. Someone else might want to get on that.
The third vote thing isn’t crap though. It holds up as statistically valid across several player groups over hundreds of games.
I was going to say is 3 town for 1 scum a good night, but then I saw the bit about the marking of Telcontar. 3 for 2 has to be good, Though we do need to worry about 4 kills in one night.
final vote Telcontar
Suburban - I think it stretches credibility for Telcontar to be anything other than scum at this point.
Is NAF confirmed now? We now he isn’t a demon, and now we have someone vouching for him being vanilla do you get vanilla PFK’s?
Suburban and Guiri. The former voted late on Romanic and peeker and had no vote lodged at the actual end of day one. This despite being all over the thread otherwise (I counted 76 posts earlier today when I thought I could still have time to complete an analysis on him. 83 now.) Guiri had the second vote on Romanic after that weirdness that Idle noted, and was middle/late on Oredigger and peeker. Only 24 posts total for him, which is uncharacteristic. Of note for both is that neither has ever placed more than one vote in a voting “phase” (neither has lilflower), a trait which I think is slightly more characteristic of scum than of town.
Of course, they were in my top half dozen or so suspects anyway, which is why I looked them up in the first place, haha.
Drain Bead is her typically aggressive self on day one, anyway – nothing suspicious in her vote patterns, per se. OAOW doesn’t look any different than he usually is, and Telcontar voted him twice to boot, not that that proves anything.
Err … coming to a screeching halt here – Ulla hasn’t placed a vote yet? What’s up, Total?
Are you saying that on it’s own, the third vote is a indication of scumminess? Or is it the third vote in conjunction with other scummy behavior (which I could believe)? If it’s the former, it seems the scum would be on to that and purposely try not to cast the third vote.
You are throwing out non-specific, unsubstantiated suspicions against me. You say it’s an “observation” but you didn’t back it up and you used non-committal language like
<bolding mine>
Maybe I’m not using the term correctly but that is what I would call a smudge.
Human goon “deadite” is a possibility, I guess. Not worth worrying about at this point.
I would just like to take this opportunity to point out that this is the eleventh consecutive game that I wasn’t vanilla town. I haven’t been vanilla since YSI. Most of you probably don’t even know what YSI was.
YSI was basically an all-vanilla game, too. Going past that one the last time I was vanilla was M2. :eek:
@ lilflower – Do you think it at all likely that NAF is not town? Because if he is, what’s the point of throwing around prejudicial terms like “smudge”?
This is one of several posts from Suburban that have pinged me – what’s the point of making an issue of this at all? You say yourself you saw it once you went back and looked at the write-up, so clearly there’s nothing suspicious about Oy commenting on it. It looks like you’re fishing for something you can hang a PIS charge on.
That reminds me, though: Oy – why NAF for the investigation (and can you post the item description for that again)?
I agree with you regarding Telcontar, which is why I placed my vote on him. I put the possibility out there just for completeness sake.
As far as NAF goes, I think he’s about as confirmed as he can be while still alive. I think it might still be *possible *for him to be the Godfather, but it’s not at all likely.
All “smudge” means (to me) is that the person is making vague accusations that are hard to defend against. That doesn’t necessarily mean that I think he’s scum. I think town players can smudge as well (perhaps not purposely, though).
As for NAF’s alignment, I’m not sure what to think. Most of you who have played with me before know that I have a very difficult time believing any claims. I can think of scenarios where he could be non-town but I usually get off on an unrealistic tangent when I do that. (I feel like I made some huge mis-judgements in my last game so I’m trying to keep my conspiracy theories to a minimum in this one.) I suppose there is a chance that he is not town but it seems slim at this point based on the way he has played.
Sorry about that, will try to add columns next time… The only thing that jumped out at me was Total’s presence in the non-voters section for the 2.5 Days.
Idle wasn’t “killed”, he was consumed by the flames which marked Telcontar (if I’ve understood his role and the color correctly).
I’m undecided about the quick-lynch offer vs. full Day with little discussion ending in a Telcontar lynch vs. full Day with full discussion and keeping the option of leaving Telcontar to the Vig. I’m leaning towards the third option.
My first thought was that with 3 deaths last Night, I think it likely that we have a Vig. Omi is also a good choice for a Vig killing since e wasn’t participating.
Then, my brain started working and I realized that Idle’s death wasn’tlikely caused by Scum, SK, or Vig. So there’s really only 1 non-Scum caused death for which to account.
Still, I can’t imagine Scum killing a non-participant. It also puzzles me that a SK would do so.
Neither and both. It’s not that black and white. Nothing in this game is. It’s a marker, just like every other tell, and how important a marker it is changes a lot depending on the circumstances of the game.
No…they were specific. One was flat out wrong (mea culpa for that, like I said), but it was specific. I put it out as a data point. That’s the sort of thing we should all be doing.
Yes, you are using it wrong. It’s ok, most people do. What Ed was doing yesterDay with the snide remarks, that was smudging (kind of a null tell for Ed though).
No worries, that sounded like I was blaming your post rather than my ability to read a list accurately. It was my reading ability that caused the trouble. Trust me.
You still haven’t pointed out what you are specifically referring to. Without doing so, you cannot expect me to change my behavior.
Wow. Just wow.
I knew Telcontar was scummy in this game.
Final Vote Telcontar
Yay! I know who to vote for toDay! Good work, Idle!
**unvote: drain bead **(from yesterDay)
final vote: telcontar
No news on the book? Could the book account for the extra death last night?
Did you express this earlier?
I’m a bit too lazy to go back and check.
You know, I started to go back through the game posts, and then I realized that you post nearly as much as I do and that I don’t really care that much.
I pointed it out a couple of times as it was happening. But I bring it up now mostly as a handy reference because I know I mentioned it earlier. I sort of was bugged by it at the time, but now not so much.