Fantasy football advice - week 14

Depending on your league, we’re either at the playoffs or a week away. Time to overthink matchups.

I need to pick 2 RBs out of the following:

Ricky Williams @JAC
Fred Jackson @KC
Pierre Thomas @ATL
Marion Barber vs SD
Jason Snelling vs NO
Quinton Ganther @OAK

Those are pretty much all good matchups. It seems like I have to start Ricky Williams, but Jacksonville is by far the best (fantasy) run defense in that group, and they’ll be playing hard on their way to the playoffs.

Marshawn Lynch stole Fred Jackson’s touchdown last week, but he’s still the starter as far as I know. The way Denver ripped up KC on the ground it makes me think that there will be plenty of yards to go around.

Pierre Thomas’ situation can be simplified if Mike Bell ends up being out, and he’s questionable right now.

Barber I guess I shouldn’t really be considering due to inconsitency. Turner isn’t looking so good to play, so Snelling is an option, but he hasn’t done much lately. Ganther is an unknown, but he does get Oakland.

What do you guys think? And throw your matchup problems at me.

I am getting slammed in the SDMB Pick’em leagues; discount my advice appropriately. That said…

Not sure if your league is PPR or not. If not, Yahoo likes Ricky, Pierre, and Ganther, in that order. Our league is .5 PPR, so Pierre and Ricky switch spots, and Barber is just a hair behind Ganther. Yahoo’s projections, as you well know, are extremely variable… and I don’t know how their projection is treating Bell’s availability.

Weather in Oakland is supposed to be rainy with 10 to 20 MPH of wind. KC is supposed to be cloudy, but not that windy. JAX is slight chance of showers and t-storms, with 10 to 15 mph winds, which isn’t as bad as I was fearing, looking at its weather now. Dallas will be partly cloudy, no rain, with light wind.

Normally, I’d go with your RB stud, regardless of the matchup, especially when Ricky is the only one of your RBs to getting over 80% of his team’s carries. However, Miami hasn’t faced a decent run defense in the last couple of weeks, other than NE, where he went 18 for 75 and no TDs. JAX is even better against the run, and worse against the pass than NE (especially if Mathis is still out), so you’d expect Miami to try to win it with Henne and even further deemphasize Ricky. For me, the negatives would scare me away from Ricky, when you have better options such as Ganther and Thomas available.

I like Ganther this week as he will receive the majority of carries, the weather and Asomugha will discourage passing, and Oakland is not that tough against the run (Mendenhall went 20/103 and 1 TD; Barber 14/61 along with Jones/Choice going for 10/135 and 1; Bernard Scott 21/119). If Bell can’t go, then Thomas is your #2, even though I think the Saints are going to do most of their damage through the air. KC is bad, true, but how can you tell whether Lynch or Jackson is going to the one Buffalo picks?

As far as Snelling, aren’t the Saints going to be up fast enough, such that ATL has to abandon the running game? And isn’t Ellis back for the Saints? I think you can run on the Saints still and shrink the number of possessions, but I don’t think Snelling’s the guy who’ll do that for you. I remember reading that SD gives up the least # of 20+yard plays in the league—no idea if that’s right but if so that takes away from Felix Jones’s value. Romo’s going to have to be consistent in his drives—no getting bailed out by a 60 yder to Austin—and I have my doubts that he can do that. Moreover, SD plays TEs not named Scheffler fairly well, so he won’t be able to lean on Witten as easily to extend drives. All this leads me to think that they’ll give Barber more work than usual.

I’d use Ganther and Barber or Thomas if Bell can’t go.

I have two FF questions. For QB, do I lean on Orton vs the Colts, or pick Henne off the waiver wire against JAX? 4 pt TD, -2 INT/fum, -1 sack, and here’s the kicker, 1 pt per 50 passing yds.

For RB, pick 3: .5 PPR, 1 pt/10 yds rush; 1pt/15 yds pass.
Benson at the Vikings.
J. Stewart at the Patriots
Maroney versus the Panthers.
Charles versus the Bills.
B. Wells at the Niners.
F. Jones versus the Chargers.

Really, it’s pick 2, since I’m 99% sure Charles is going to be one of my RB’s.

Sorry for the post length. Thanks for any and all help.

Beef, I’d start Williams and probably Thomas, though I think Barber actually isn’t bad. Jerry Jones was making noise this week about his usage, and it’s not Wade Phillips’ job is so secure that he can be counted on to disregard what the owner tells the media. I don’t know, Fred Jackson isn’t bad either.

That’s a tough one. My gut says to go with Henne - they’ve been trusting him more lately and their run game might get shut down to a greater degree. It’s hard to predict QBs with that scoring system.

Charles is pretty much required, yes. Maroney vs the Panthers has the highest upside, I think, but you never know what Maroney. I think I would still stick with Benson - he’s the only one of the group that you know will get the whole workload, even if it’s a tough matchup. Good chance they find a way to let him score.

No I appreciate the advice. Gives me stuff to think about. I’m still pretty torn… it’ll probably be one of those days where I keep flipping back and forth until the last minute, where I make the wrong pick. It’s a playoff tradition for me.

I have a similar situation. I have opted to start Thomas and Williams. My playoffs start next weekend and I already have a playoff spot locked up, so losing this week won’t kill me. I’m just waiting for Turner to get healthy!

I am winning my ESPN league. I’ve got both Brady and Favre. I’m leaning on starting Favre because I think NE will beat the daylights out of Carolina and since Brady is pretty banged up, I think he’ll be pulled early.

Still, Favre has a tough game against the Bengals. I’m also interested to see how Favre responds to the beat down he got last week. Is he running out of gas in the late season?

The Pats-Panthers game is supposed to be rainy, with 10-15 mph of wind. According to Football Outsiders’ stats, Carolina’s pass def is much better than their run def. Not saying that Brady won’t do well besides all that, and part of me thinks they give Carolina a 45-10 beatdown to make themselves feel better after the Miami game, but I think that Favre may be your better bet.

Oh, and thanks Senor Beef, for the Henne recommendation. Going with him, and we’ll see what happens.

Good luck to everyone in their playoffs.

I’d be very concerned starting Favre, and would much rather start Brady. The Vikings are going to make sure to try and rest Favre to try and eliminate his late season swoons, and in tough games, he’s much more likely to resort to the dink & dunk and running game.