I am getting slammed in the SDMB Pick’em leagues; discount my advice appropriately. That said…
Not sure if your league is PPR or not. If not, Yahoo likes Ricky, Pierre, and Ganther, in that order. Our league is .5 PPR, so Pierre and Ricky switch spots, and Barber is just a hair behind Ganther. Yahoo’s projections, as you well know, are extremely variable… and I don’t know how their projection is treating Bell’s availability.
Weather in Oakland is supposed to be rainy with 10 to 20 MPH of wind. KC is supposed to be cloudy, but not that windy. JAX is slight chance of showers and t-storms, with 10 to 15 mph winds, which isn’t as bad as I was fearing, looking at its weather now. Dallas will be partly cloudy, no rain, with light wind.
Normally, I’d go with your RB stud, regardless of the matchup, especially when Ricky is the only one of your RBs to getting over 80% of his team’s carries. However, Miami hasn’t faced a decent run defense in the last couple of weeks, other than NE, where he went 18 for 75 and no TDs. JAX is even better against the run, and worse against the pass than NE (especially if Mathis is still out), so you’d expect Miami to try to win it with Henne and even further deemphasize Ricky. For me, the negatives would scare me away from Ricky, when you have better options such as Ganther and Thomas available.
I like Ganther this week as he will receive the majority of carries, the weather and Asomugha will discourage passing, and Oakland is not that tough against the run (Mendenhall went 20/103 and 1 TD; Barber 14/61 along with Jones/Choice going for 10/135 and 1; Bernard Scott 21/119). If Bell can’t go, then Thomas is your #2, even though I think the Saints are going to do most of their damage through the air. KC is bad, true, but how can you tell whether Lynch or Jackson is going to the one Buffalo picks?
As far as Snelling, aren’t the Saints going to be up fast enough, such that ATL has to abandon the running game? And isn’t Ellis back for the Saints? I think you can run on the Saints still and shrink the number of possessions, but I don’t think Snelling’s the guy who’ll do that for you. I remember reading that SD gives up the least # of 20+yard plays in the league—no idea if that’s right but if so that takes away from Felix Jones’s value. Romo’s going to have to be consistent in his drives—no getting bailed out by a 60 yder to Austin—and I have my doubts that he can do that. Moreover, SD plays TEs not named Scheffler fairly well, so he won’t be able to lean on Witten as easily to extend drives. All this leads me to think that they’ll give Barber more work than usual.
I’d use Ganther and Barber or Thomas if Bell can’t go.
I have two FF questions. For QB, do I lean on Orton vs the Colts, or pick Henne off the waiver wire against JAX? 4 pt TD, -2 INT/fum, -1 sack, and here’s the kicker, 1 pt per 50 passing yds.
For RB, pick 3: .5 PPR, 1 pt/10 yds rush; 1pt/15 yds pass.
Benson at the Vikings.
J. Stewart at the Patriots
Maroney versus the Panthers.
Charles versus the Bills.
B. Wells at the Niners.
F. Jones versus the Chargers.
Really, it’s pick 2, since I’m 99% sure Charles is going to be one of my RB’s.
Sorry for the post length. Thanks for any and all help.