Most of the evidence is from the books. I don’t think its worth discussing in the spoiler free series thread.
While we’re theorizing, what’s up with the prologue of A Feast for Crows? I beleive, based on the descriptions of each, that the man who killed Pate in the prologue is actually Jaqen H’ghar, or at least someone who looks a lot like Jaqen did after he changed his face at Harenhall. But it seems…I don’t know…out of character for Jaqen to kill a kid like Pate.
Brandon didn’t go and get himself killed because of Lyanna. Lord Rickard and Brandon were summoned to King’s Landing by Aerys for some reason (which I misremember now). To swear fealty for something? To answer for trumped up charges? (The latter is more likely, I think.) So they went, and so they were killed.
IIRC (which I probably don’t), I think Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna after Aerys killed the Starks. His kidnapping, coupled with Aerys’s demand to Jon Arryn to surrender Ned and Robert, started the war.
Yep. He’s not entirely bad but he’s also caught between two worlds and ended up being bad to both of them:
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A true Ironborn would not have desired to conquer and hold a major keep like Winterfell, but (like Asha) would have RAIDED the hell out of it - sack, burn and loot, and kidnap the important people for hostages.
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A true “green lander” might have wanted to conquer the keep but would come to the same conclusion that it was not, well, keepable. I mean it wasn’t some out of the way hold where the King(s) of the realm might lose track of it for a few years, then say “hey I wonder what happened to Winterfell - I guess there’s a new Lord there, huh, never noticed”. It was the seat of the hereditary Kings/Wardens of the North.
He wanted Winterfell exactly BECAUSE he grew up there as an outsider, and that’s what did him in.
After shrieking about my comment that I thought the sky cell in the Eeyrie would be more slanted?
I think that’s a fantastically bad idea.
-Joe
I think the tower of the hand website has summaries of all the chapters. Since it was a pretty crappy book I’d just reread the summary.
IIRC, from said summary, Pate was a victim of sapient supercedure so that his replacement could get into the Masters’ HQ and do…something. Reread the summaries and he shows up again doing…something.
I really didn’t like AFFC.
-Joe
No. Looking at the ice and fire wiki, the order of events was: Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna, Brandon got pissed and demanded Rhaegar come fight him, Areys arrested Brandon, Brandons father came to try and get him out, Areys had them both killed and then started rounding up their allies and executing them as well, he demanded Arryn turn over Ned and Robert for similar treatement, Arryn refused and started the rebellion, Ned and Robert went home to their respective kingdoms and joined Arryn.
The kidnapping was kinda tangential to the whole thing, Areys was a paranoid nut and just used it as an excuse to go on an executing spree of the families of various powerful nobles until enough people finally decided realized they were next and decided to put an end to him.
Good point.
Ah, but Littlefinger DID choose Ned’s side… Or rather, offered Ned a way to be on HIS side. Both show and book agree, when Ned Stark tells an unsurprised Petyr Baelish that none of Cersei’s children are trueborn of the late King Robert, he basically tells him exactly what Renly had just told him earlier: that Stannis, while the “legal” heir in light of this information, cannot be supported as the King because it will cause war between the Lannisters (who won’t give up their proximity to the throne so easily) and also those who would fear Stannis’ reputation as a grudge-bearer in undoing Robert’s pardons (the Tyrells and Greyjoys). He advises Ned to seize power as Regent and is willing to “aid” him in ruling.
Had Ned accepted, I believe Petyr would have followed through and the Starks would have lived on, because that IS what Petyr really wants in the end: not to be King himself, but to pull the strings from directly behind the throne. But in refusing, Ned signed his own death warrant, or at least his ticket to join the Night’s Watch (there’s no suggestion that Littlefinger egged Joffrey on to execute Ned at the last minute instead of sending him to the Wall, is there?).
That in the end is why Ned Stark gets the label of “stupid” hung on him: once he rebuked and refused both Renly’s and Littlefinger’s plans, what did he think they would do? Withdraw and hang their heads in shame in the corner or something while he ruled as Regent? And in Littlefinger’s case, he realized he needed his help to get the aid of the Goldcloaks even to do what he had in mind - to safely proclaim himself the Regent - right after Littlefinger exposed himself to him as a treasonous plotter against Stannis’ rightful ascension. Why did he think he was actually going to get it? Surely both he and Littlefinger knew, and knew that each other knew, what King Stannis would do to Petyr if he ever found out about his little offer to Ned.
Being blind to their machinations could be naivete or simply not being devious enough. Being told to his face what they were planning to do, by themselves in person, and not realizing that people making plans like that don’t just stand down because he pointed out what honor, law and a piece of paper from a dead King would dictate should happen, is… Stupid.
Nothing explicit, but Littlefinger is definately on list of suspects. As Tyrion mentioned, Slynt and Payne were awful quick with the execution, and Slynt was in Littlefinger’s pay, after all. Manipulating others into doing his dirty work is entirely within Littlefinger’s style. He also had several reasons why he might have wanted Ned offed, not least of which is his history with Cat and Brandon. The only other person I can think of with the means and the motives to do it is Varys. I actually do believe Cercei when she said she had no part in it. I think she wasn’t paranoid enough yet at that point.
You’re probably right. The order came from Joffrey (unbidden by the Lannisters), but it probably wouldn’t have taken much more than a suggestive comment or two about how overriding his mother about sending Ned to the Wall would prove he was a Real King, and hey could you imagine the look on Sansa’s face?
At that point I don’t think either Cersei or Tywin Lannister wanted Ned dead - it would only ensure the revolt of the Starks, which is what it in fact achieved. So who would have the most to gain from open war between the Lannisters and the Starks, not to mention the additional chaos of both Renly’s and Stannis’ claims?
It’s still unclear to me exactly what Petyr is planning to get out of it all, but clearly he was planning all along to do just that - foster conflict between the Lannisters and Starks - with an eye to weakening both Houses while climbing the ladder himself. He got Lysa to frame the Lannisters for killing Jon Arryn, then framed Tyrion to the Starks in the attempt on Bran’s life (which he didn’t seem to actually order but simply spun to his ends). A living Ned Stark could still talk about his “offer” of supporting a Regency coup to Ned - just as he wouldn’t want King Stannis to hear about it, nor would he want King Joffrey to hear about it either.
I’d have to agree. When in doubt, don’t post it in the other thread. The OP has repeatedly asked that we pretend there that the books don’t exist, and I’d respect that.
Ah. Thanks for the correction!
The problem is that the choice that Littlefinger made was certain to lead to civil war too. And it was far from clear that the Lannisters were the side to bet on. Ned's coalition would include Winterfell, the Eyrie, Riverrun and presumably Stannis. The Lannisters were mostly on their own. Renly and the Tyrell's were off on their own as well. Ned was locally weak but in terms of the wider balance of power he held some pretty decent cards. Plus Stannis had the better argument in terms of legitimate succession which meant something in that world. Littlefinger's betrayal makes for a dramatic turn but I am not sure it's the most logical outcome.
I was arguing more or less the same thing in the other thread, that from Neds perspective, basically the whole worlds on his side and Littlefinger would be nuts to go against him.
But Littlefinger knows more then Ned does, he knows the Eyrie won’t actually join the war. And he knows Renly, and probably Stannis, better then Ned does, and probably realizes that they dislike eachother enough to go to war against each other before they join togeather to keep the crown in the Baratheon family. And he probably already knows Tyrion is free and the Starks have lost their hostage, since he’s in contact with Arryns widow.
So while from Ned’s perspective Littlefinger would be nuts to go against the Starks, from Littlefinger’s perspective, the Lannisters aren’t as outnumbered as Ned thinks they are.
OK but that still doesn’t make Ned stupid. Given the information he has, it would be quite rational for Littlefinger to join him. And even with the things you mention, you could make a decent case that Winterfell+ Riverrun+Stannis was the most powerful coalition.
Yea, I agree. I don’t think it makes Ned stupid either. He just has incomplete information.
And as you say, even with complete information, he probably still has an upper hand. I’m just saying Littlefinger knows that Ned won’t win any civil war in a cake-walk, and so its not totally nuts for him to to the other way when Ned gives him the cold shoulder, even if its reasonable for Ned to think he’d be crazy to not take the Starks side.
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OK but that still doesn’t make Ned stupid. Given the information he has, it would be quite rational for Littlefinger to join him. And even with the things you mention, you could make a decent case that Winterfell+ Riverrun+Stannis was the most powerful coalition.
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I disagree. In both the book and the series Littlefinger attempts to explain to Ned his thoughts on the entire matter but Ned refuses to listen or heed his advice, instead bulling right over Littlefinger and then relying on him to make his own plans work, while making his contempt for Littlefinger and the methods he will have to use pretty plain. Hell, Littlefinger openly tells him this when he says that Ned can’t even bring himself to ask Littlefinger directly for what he wants!
It was very stupid of Ned to rely on Littlefinger when had he listened to Littlefinger and paid attention to what he was saying he’d have known that Littlefinger was opposed to Stannis being made king…hell, he’d have rather had Renly or Ned himself, and he urged Ned to simply acknowledge the Price as the heir until they disposed of Stannis and then if things didn’t work out they could depose the king, kill off Stannis and put Renly on the throne.
-XT
Yes but Ned would forever have it over his (Petyr’s) head that he made that offer in the first place. If Stannis were crowned and he found out about it, Petyr would lose his head.
Therefore, whatever else could happen, Ned should not have counted on Littlefinger helping him to support Stannis’ claim once he’d made that offer, it would be tantamount to handing his head over to Ned Stark. Which maybe Ned Stark didn’t see a problem with, but he should have realized that a “dishonorable schemer” who’d make the offer in the first place would have a very big problem with.
That’s just the one hand. On the other, Ned had already realized that he was in mortal danger of going into the lion’s den (ha) without backup if he went to the throne room at Joffrey’s (and Cersei’s) demand to denounce them as illegitimate. And his solution to this was to get that backup… From Littlefinger.
When did Ned ever say anything bad about Rhaegar?
Rhaegar and Lyana were totally in love and Jon is definitely their son. I’m more convinced of that than just about anything in the series. See my fist post in this thread.