AFAIK he doesn’t…but he doesn’t contradict Robert when he’s going on one of his rants about Rhaegar either.
I agree with you about Jon being Rhaegar and Lyana’s son though…I think that’s the big secret that Ned took to his grave, and I wonder if or when Jon will find out the truth. I also wonder if he and Daenerys are fated to hook up, since Jon would also be the ‘blood of the dragon’…and SOMEONE has to ride one of the other dragons.
-XT
Valid points all. Littlefinger knew very well that Ned’s coalition was not as strong as he had reason to assume. And I share the suspicion that it was Petyr who wanted Ned dead for the reasons already mentioned; he might even not have been totally sure that Ned would be so honorable that he would stay at the Wall when his family’s future was on the line – and Ned was a soldier of renown who had earned the respect of his noble men and allies over decades; I very much doubt that he would have faced the problems the adolescent and inexperienced Robb was facing with his allies. And Ned wouldn’t have betrayed the Freys.
And while Littlefinger might have believed in Ned’s honour enough to consider his oath-breaking only a remote possibility, he would have not risked it after his betrayal.
But frankly, Littlefinger is one of the characters that are a bit too blessed by the author’s godly will; so many things have gone his way that could have easily been his downfall that I am tempted to call him Daeneryo. Martin either sets him up for an epic fall or the audience for some surprising revelations about the guy. Unless, of course, Martin just wants to see Machiavelli win.
Yes, the neutrality of the Eyrie covered the Tullys well enough for them to not worry about a war at two fronts. Unfortunately, the same can be said about the Martells – if they had shown any sign at all of an involvement, neither the Tyrells nor the necessarily even more worried Lannisters could have relocated their troops in such numbers toward the north.
The Starks should have at least shown publicly that they were willing to support the Martells’ demands if they would join them. That would have bound troops – even though we know that Doran had other plans entirely.
Anyway, the Lannisters were in a highly dangerous position throughout the whole campaign; if Edmure, for example, hadn’t foiled Robb’s plan, Tywin would have lost a battle he couldn’t afford to lose because he then would not have been in a position to counter Stannis attack on King’s Landing; the capitol would have fallen into his hands and Tyrion, Cersei + her children would have become hostages.
Even if Tywin had still been alive and in control of a respectable portion of his beaten army, he would have been caught between Robb in the north and Stannis in the south without hope to escape.
In that case, the Tyrells had no reason to support the Lannisters which would have surrounded them entirely. Game over.
Though the Starks were not in a comfortable situation either: Stannis would have never accepted an independent north and if he could not have won their loyalty in negotiations, he might have opted for another shadow baby instead – Robb would have been dead and his siblings could not have continued the fight. But the Blackfish might have gone on and if he had realized Stannis’ involvement in Robb’s death, we would have seen more civil war.
Still, Robb might have seen reason and bent his knee. But even then, Varys or Littlefinger might have found a way to let the war go on. This wasn’t a normal civil war, after all, it was carefully orchestrated with the help of lies and half truths, an occasional disruptive murder and some magic.
[QUOTE=wintertime]
Still, Robb might have seen reason and bent his knee. But even then, Varys or Littlefinger might have found a way to let the war go on. This wasn’t a normal civil war, after all, it was carefully orchestrated with the help of lies and half truths, an occasional disruptive murder and some magic.
[/QUOTE]
If your implication here is that either Varys or Littlefinger wanted a civil war then I totally disagree with you. I think they were trying to avoid a civil war, and that it was Joffrey who screwed the pooch here…that and Jamie getting captured. I think that Littlefinger wanted to work with Ned, but when he saw that Ned wasn’t willing to take Joffrey into custody and wanted to put Stannis on the throne (something Littlefinger was completely opposed too, since he said right out he thought Stannis would be a bad king AND that Stannis would appoint a new counsel, thus deposing Littlefinger himself as Master of Coin) he decided to betray Ned to the Queen. But it didn’t work out the way either Varys OR Littlefinger wanted it too, since Joffrey had Ned killed suddenly and before they could stop him, and thus threw the entire realm into chaos. Without that act, I think that they could have gotten Ned to take the black and prevented the North from rising in civil war…which meant they would have only had to deal with the brothers of the king.
It didn’t work out that way, but I think that’s what they were both trying to more or less have happen.
-XT
Actually I’m kind of hoping Jon is **not **Rhaegar and Lyanna’s son as that just seems too cutsy for me. I’d rather he were Ned and Wylla’s if only to hear all the howls of outrage from the R+L+J camp.
I think your pov is a valid explanation but let me state a different take on things:
I don’t doubt that Littlefinger would have supported Ned if he had given him what he wanted but his plans needed war to come to their fulfilment, otherwise the established houses were too strong and too well connected to let him rule them; his affair with Lyssa was a power base move, the murder of Jon Arryn secured that base but also shook the dangerous balance of the houses in Westeros a little bit more because that was done to put the Starks and the Lannisters at opposite ends (a view that is supported by the lies that Lysa sent to her sister) – I think Littlefinger was at least as aware as Varys how instable the balance really was and how little needed to be done to topple the old order – both knew, after all, about the incest and waited for the right time to make it public, or rather: let someone make it public.
And Varys (AGoT, ARYA, in the dungeon) ..
While neither Illyrio nor Varys were happy that civil war was already on them, it seems to be clear that Varys preferred to rather push it further now that the situation had escalated that much than delay it any longer – and the conversation in its entirety suggests that war had always been their goal, it just came a bit too early for their plans. And the reason for this was Littlefinger, who had pushed his own agenda - and Varys had not yet figured out at this point how much Petyr had already pushed things ahead.
I don’t really find a man living a lie for 15 years, causing bitterness between him and his wife, leaving his nephew with serious issues, etc. so that his best friend doesn’t murder his family to be terribly cutesy.
I think that if you didn’t have the past 10 years to hear R+L=J then you would feel differently.
Apart from that, what are the odds that Jon is going to get pushed into leading a war against Dany? There’s even less cutesy.
-Joe
Slim. He has bigger fish to fry. Plus they’ve already done the oath breaker thing with him. He’s at the Wall until it comes down. More likely he convinces Dany to have her dragons attack the Others.
Anybody else super pumped for episode 8? It’s George’s episode. From the preview we get some Hound, Othor coming back alive at the Wall, and likely Barristan’s retirement speech. I have to imagine he see Syrio tear through some Lannister guards too!
Since we’re talking about R+L=J, how about the second biggest point of contention among the ASOIAF fandom? Is Syrio alive and Jaqen H’gar?
The cutesy part for me would be the ‘revelation’ that the scorned bastard child is actually (arguably) the rightful ruler.
Oh and **Snarky-Kong’s ** dead right - I’ve been hearing R+L=J for so long I’m just sick of it.
George’s episode?
And I’ve never gotten the Syrio=Jaqen. Is it just because they both have a weak spot for Arya?
-Joe
GRRM is the writer for episode 8. He’s also writing the episode that had the Battle of the Blackwater for season two.
Mostly it’s fanwanking because people like Syrio and he didn’t die on page. There’s pretty much nothing to connect them. Soft spot for Arya, yes. Maybe Gendry is Syrio!
So a dude that can change his face shows up shortly after Syrio dies, they both like Arya, and fans don’t want to accept that Syrio’s dead. That’s basically it I think.
I think I haven’t stated my pov as clearly as I should have done. So, to summarize: Littlefinger could not have hoped to rise above the traditional and well established houses without a serious disruption of the established order; that breakdown had to be so thoroughly that a nobody and social climber like himself could be accepted in a controlling role in a quasi-medieval society (even if it was only behind the throne or next to someone on it).
Such an event was a civil war that would put house against house: their strength would be diminished, the loyalties among allies and between lord and his noble men would be weakened by the hardships of war and the lure of better proposals and a new order would be needed and sooner or later demanded by the surviving noble men and the people to get out of the downward spiral that civil war always is.
Littlefinger needed civil war to reshape the pecking order to his liking and rise to or behind the top.
Varys needed civil war to weaken the houses enough to fall victim to Khal Drogo’s horse men and to re-establish a Targaryen rule as the savior from unrest and disorder.
I am glad you added “arguably” because I always argue with the reasoning behind the notion that the Targaryens, who established their reign by force, are somehow more rightful rulers than anyone else who used similar methods.
I think I haven’t stated my pov as clearly as I should have done. So, to summarize: Littlefinger could not have hoped to rise above the traditional and well established houses without a serious disruption of the established order; that breakdown had to be so thoroughly that a nobody and social climber like himself could be accepted in a controlling role in a quasi-medieval society (even if it was only behind the throne or next to someone on it).
Such an event was a civil war that would put house against house: their strength would be diminished, the loyalties among allies and between lord and his noble men would be weakened by the hardships of war and the lure of better proposals and a new order would be needed and sooner or later demanded by the surviving noble men and the people to get out of the downward spiral that civil war always is.
Littlefinger needed civil war to reshape the pecking order to his liking and rise to or behind the top.
Varys needed civil war to weaken the houses enough to fall victim to Khal Drogo’s horse men and to re-establish a Targaryen rule as the savior from unrest and disorder.
I am glad you added “arguably” because I always argue with the reasoning behind the notion that the Targaryens, who established their reign by force, are somehow more rightful rulers than anyone else who used similar methods.
Pretty much my pov too. I have never heard any reasonable connection being made between the two characters.
I myself think Syrio is dead. I don’t see him taking out a fully armored knight with two sticks, and if he did, I’m sure one of the Lannisters would have mentioned it. You just don’t let someone like that walk around loose after they’ve killed six heavily armored men. Still, Syrio’s battle was a great one. Were I a god I sure would reward him in the afterlife.
I think Jaqen H’gar is alive. I’m pretty sure he’s the one who kills Pate at the start of Book 4.
Ups, instead of simply adding a response to Snarky_Kong in my post I somehow managed to double post. Sorry.
wintertime: I agree with your assessment of Littlefinger. That’s pretty much what I’ve thought. He’s put himself in the position to be the Gray Eminence behind Sansa Stark.
@The_Peyote_Coyote: Oh yes, though Sansa couldn’t have been his original choice, Lysa neither because he showed too much contempt for her, so he might have still hoped that Catelyn could be swayed.
Which Kingsgaurd member was it? Trant? We see whoever it was later, we know that he’s alive.
People argue that Syrio could have picked up the sword from one of the men he killed.
I don’t remember what knight it was, Snarky Kong. I’ll try to reread that section tonight or tomorrow morning and get back to you.
wintertime: You’re probably right that it was Catelyn, but it could have been Cersei or anyone tractable enough. I think Littlefinger is pretty flexible.
I think Syrio is dead. He seems to be one of a number of characters who are essentially like Boba Fett analogues in ASOIAF - minor characters who have been picked up by the fandom out of all proportion to their roles in the story. Other characters I’d put into the same class - Oberyn Martell, Strong Belwas and Areo Hotah.
Speaking of Strong Belwas who would you cast in his role? I envisage him as a taller David Tua. And Willia Apiata VC should so play Areo Hotah…
