Then the real Seer is an idiot of greater-than-Winston-Smith proportions. Or “out of town” or having “personal problems”, which would be just as bad, IMO.
I don’t think Menocchio knows whether or not sturmhauke is the Seer. I say I don’t know because, while as Alpha Wolf he only had knowledge of who other wolves are, I recall telling a non-player who the main players were. Can’t remember who it was, though. 
The wolves have a tough decision to make tonight.
Do they go after OAOW, assuming that the GA is now going to protect sturmhauke, or will they go after sturmhauke, assuming that the GA will be a step ahead of them and protect OAOW.
There should be something here about dizzing intelect and match of wits with a Sicillian, but I don’t remember the exact quotes.
But it’s so simple! All the GA has to do is divine from what they know of the werewolves - are they the sort of people who would choose the most obvious victim, or the lesser one? Now, a clever werewolf would choose the least obvious target, because he would know only a great fool would choose to protect OAOW. The GA is not a great fool, so they can clearly not choose sturmhauke. But the werewolves must know the GA is not a great fool; they would have counted on it, so the GA can clearly not choose the less obvious victim.
Well, but **Menocchio ** is sure that sturmhauke is not a wolf, right? So really the only two choices are that sturmhauke is the Seer, or that he is a vanilla Townsperson pretending to be the Seer, and the latter seems like a spectacularly stupid move given that he was in no particular danger.
True. But hey, it’s been known to happen.
err, if I were the GA, I’d say to myself “The Seer and the Mason have me in a pickle. Clearly the Seer is more important, but what if sturmhawke is lying? Not everyone’s checked in, what if the real Seer’s one of them?”
then I’d say “AAh, fuck it, I’m protecting myself! There is no I in TEAM, but there’s a ME, ME, ME!”
You truely do have a dizzing intelect!
Nicely done!
That right there would have guaranteed my vote, if I hadn’t been et. There’s no way someone trying that hard to look innocent isn’t guilty.
I think straumhauke just lost the game for the town. Why did he claim so early? He should have waited until he had a guilty investigation on someone. He has been leaving some very good clues. I think the GA has picked up on that. OAOW is dead “tonight” and the wolves will track down the GA next.
Good point. Why would sturmhauke role-claim to save the life of a Townsperson?
Perhaps he has been less than truthful about her role? Maybe jsgoddess is the Guardian Angel? That might be worth a role-claim.
I am not so sure that OAOW is such a big loss at this point. I do think it is time for the other masons to claim, so that the GA can protect straumhauke and then the whole pool of potential baddies will have shrunk to a managable size. Straumhauke can investigate someone that is a known non mason and report the findings, and the whole shebang hits endgame. There can’t be more than 2 wolves left (and if there are, shame on you Revenant Threshold for not keeping the game more balanced. If the town gets another wolf today, the game is basically a lock for the town, and if they get a wolf tomorrow they still have a good chance of winning. But if they don’t get a wolf in the next two days I don’t see the town winning.
Straumhauke claiming may have been premature, but now that it is out there the town has to become agressive and play the rest of the game full out.
This is of course assuming that straumhauke is actually the seer, but if the real seer hasn’t counter claimed at this point… :smack:
Wait 'til I get started!
I notice that they’re arguing about whether sturmhauke, if his (her?) seer story is true, should have abstained for voting against Winston, knowing him to be townie, or voted for someone else, instead of joining on the bandwagon.
Leaving the aside of protective coloration, I wonder if sturm did it as a deliberately punitive/practical matter. Not all townies are really assets to the town. “Here’s this townie who’s nuts enough to fake role claim in an effort to save his own skin… he’s not likely to make it to see nightfall, but if he does, what other mischief might he make? Dang it all, I do wanna see his townie ass strung up.”
(No offense Winston Smith.) 
None taken, mate. I think you’re analysis is on the money regarding sturm. He made this post, which I think was illustrative of his annoyance with me.
I like this reasoning… it makes a lot of sense. Particularly in light of the fact that jsgoddess has been - at times suspiciously - interested in identifying the power roles among the townspeople. Maybe she’s been fishing for the Seer, so as to protect him or her. In that context, sturmhauke’s claim makes more sense.
Incidentally, to those who know strategery: if Wanderers is esceedingly likely to be eaten in the coming “night,” should he reveal the other two Masons at this point? Once he’s out of the game, his knowledge will be irretrievably lost.
Although I’m pretty sure he went hinting recently that CometotheDarkSideWeHaveCookies is one of the other two Masons.
Aren’t the Townies getting close to winning?
If Wanderers reveals who the remaining Masons are, then both the lynchers and Sturmhauke (who I believe is the Seer) have a reasonable chance of hitting a werewolf.
Unless the wolves get lucky and hit the Guardian Angel, the Seer will out them!
Interesting. I am starting to come around to the position that **jsgoddess ** is the GA. Her most recent post reinforces that. sturmhawke is keeping that information under wraps because it isn’t necessary to save her, just telling that she is a townie is good enough.
It makes his role claim at this time more sensible, that’s for sure.
I really hope the people still playing aren’t reading this thread, just typing this stuff makes me uncomfortable.
I must say, if Ruby intended to get the “special townies” (for whom it was indicated early on that the best strategy is to look angelic and do little) outed by going after people who… looked angelic and did little, it’s worked. And if it wasn’t strategy, it still worked or at least stirred the waters a lot.
In the same game-day, claims for the Seer and Angel.
Hm. I have no idea whether Mad the Swine is what he’s claiming to be. If he is, it seems to me that the only chance the townies have is to win the Sicilian’s drinking game that will happen tonight; the wolves will have to guess whether Mad will protect himself or sturmhauke. If they guess right, it’s probably game over, man, for the town. If they guess wrong, the town lives to fight another day.
But unlike sturmhauke, Mad could definitely be lying. Fascinating.