Oh, all right. Sign me up for the next one.
I can’t promise to do a very good job playing, but it’s been hellafun reading the threads.
Wow, what happened over in the real thread? I think this is the first time it’s been off the first page since the game started. Losing Cookies took the wind out of their sails, I guess.
They can’t do anything until the wolves decide who to eat, The GA who to protect, and The seer who to see.
It’s night and they’re not allowed to strategerize until day.
It’s Night. All of the action in the Night-phase happens off-board. Once the Werewolves, Seer and Guardian Angel make their decisions, the next Day will start and we’ll see some more action.
And this is probably going to be a long night, considering the silent counterstrategizing that must be going on between the wolves & the GA (whoever he or she might be.) With sturm apparently caught in between, his Seerly life in danger.
The Angel’s rational play is to take a six-sided die and resolve as follows:
On a 1 - 3, protect the Seer (assuming it’s the real Seer)
On a 4 - 5, protect himself
On a 6, protect Wanderers
The reasoning being that there is no way he can out-reason the wolves as to which of the three of them he should protect, so his best chance is to be unpredictable. Similarly the wolves should make a similar resolution. The weighting factors may vary. This is simple game theory. 
Yes, except that with game theory the value of each outcome is clearly defined and measurable. How much do the town lose if the GA gets lunched, versus the seer, versus a mason??
Also, the amount of importance the angel should put onto protecting himself/herself depends on how likely the wolves are to knowing his/her secret identity:
madtheswine - has claimed. Obviously if he isn’t one of the furry brethren, they can be pretty sure that he’s the real deal.
jsgoddess - since speculation here has churned out the possibility that sturm claimed because jsg was GA, maybe the wolves have come to that decision too.
somebody else - would probably still be ‘angel under the radar’ at this point.
DAMMIT DAMMIT DAMMIT DAMMIT
Who got eaten? Who was protected? What happened over the night!?!?
I can’t take the suspense!
Sounds like the werewolves (or werewolf) have picked their target, and the seer made his pick, but the angel is still uncertain.
Can you blame him? The whole rest of the game turns (potentially) on who gets protected. I would not want to be the GA right now.
Well, neither would I. But for an additional reason. 
Oh, dear. Ogre attracted attention to himself at exactly the wrong moment.
I knew the swine stink was just a cover for his fleabreath. sigh
Exactly. I’m kicking myself for piping up at all. But I wanted you guys to know I wasn’t flaking out on the game.
Geez, what a horrible time to go to the beach and miss a vote.
Anyhow, I was pretty convinced that sturmhauke is the Seer, and I, as the GA, was 1) a lesser target, and 2) still obscure. I gambled that I had a reasonable chance to survive and protect the Seer.
Unfortunately, the wolves have been devilishly clever, and have basically been one step ahead of me the entire game. Lemme tell you, folks. Playing the Guardian Angel is difficult.
Poor Ogre. But… well, let’s look at this!
MadTheSwine has false-claimed GA at a very bad time. He’s going to get lynched… and I don’t think he’s crazy townie. Call him FurryTheSwine.
sturm is the real deal… I don’t think anyone doubts that. He’s going to get lunched tonight if there’s still a werewolf in town, and he probably investigated MtS and sealed his fate. But he’s cleared jsgoddess and richard Parker. If the masons come clean at this point, then there’s a base of four or five proven good’uns… who the last werewolf can take out one night at a time, to make sure that they don’t end up outnumbering him in the endgame. Hrm.
This will be VERY interesting to watch from here on in! Assuming that it isn’t over at nightfall.
The more I think about it, the more convinced I am that I have just lost the game for the Townies. Damn. I committed a huge sin…I failed to adjust my tactics. I saw that the wolves were consistently going after the less obvious targets, and failed to protect myself. But at the same time, I was sort of damned either way. Losing the Seer would have been terrible, but I have just guaranteed that the Townies will lose both the Seer and the Guardian Angel. Damned rotten luck, and a damned bad time to open my gob.
For what it’s worth, I think you made the right call with protecting the seer. You had to play the odds that you hadn’t yet been discovered. Of course those odds would have been slightly higher had you been less positive about your condemnation of MadTheSwine.
If I had been 10% smarter, I’d have used my verbal slip as a trap. I pretty much tagged myself as the GA with my little outburst. I should have protected myself, and given it to MadtheSwine with both barrels the following day.
Ah well. Tomayto tomahto, I guess. Either way, the body count would be the same. They’d have nailed me or the Seer the next night. But I might have given the Townies an extra day.
:smack:
If it’s any help, were I in your position, i’d have done the same thing, Ogre. Playing the risk that they couldn’t guess it was you was the most reasonable choice.
And just to add - I don’t think this is over quite yet. The werewolves are few on the ground. Assuming that sturmhauke isn’t lying, the townies have three (maybe four, depending on who he investigated) confirmed townies. All three Masons are still in play, and vouch for each other if necessary. These groups might overlap, of course, but I think there’s still a good chance for the werewolves to be run out of town.
What’s killing me now is that MtS seems to stand a reasonable chance of talking his way out of this one. I have little doubt he’s a wolf, and if sturmhauke backs him up, I’d have to think sturmy is a wolf too.
Am I off base here?