Now that 2012 is over and done, what do you see happening in the 2016 election? Frankly, the Democrats are going to have a problem. Joe Biden is the presumptive nominee, but he’s unelectable on his own. Hillary is a strong possability, but I’ve been getting the impression that she’s just about ready for retirement (or at least, to get the Hell out of Washington), and I wonder if she’ll be willing to run.
On the Republican side, there are lots of governors who would make credible candidates. Chris Christie and Bobby Jindal get mentioned a lot, but I think Rick Snyder of Michigan could peak at just the right time to make a run. He’s had good success in reworking Michigan’s tax codes, and generally has done a good job turning around the state’s economy. His opposition to a series of statewide proposals was instrumental to their defeat, despite record-breaking spending by their supporters. At least two of the proposals were heavily promoted by organized labor, so the fact that Snyder is at least partially responsible for thwarting them will undoubtably be noticed by the Republican party. Basically, as of this morning he has a reputation as a guy who can get shit done.
I love Joe Biden, but I wouldn’t call him the presumptive nominee nor would I say he’s unelectable. Is Hillary willing to run? Somehow I have a hard time thinking the answer is no. The economy IS going to take off in Obama’s second term and the Democratic nominee will mop the floor with the GOP.
I doubt that we’ve seen the last of Paul Ryan yet. He’ll be highly visible in all the confrontations between the Democrats and the Republican-controlled House for the next four years, and will have plenty of opportunity to shore up already strong support among Republicans. Besides him, Christ Christie and Marco Rubio seem like the obvious faces to watch in the GOP. Of course there’s plenty of time for a new star to emerge.
Hilary will roll over Biden if she decides to run, and I think she will. Unlike last time, I think she’s earned the nomination in 2016, and I will support her. Whoever gets the nomination will benefit from the economy if it does well over the next few years, as it’s starting to, and as I think it will. (That was one of the things that scared me most about the possibility of Romney winning, that he would get credit for the economy improving, which it would have done IMO whoever ran.) Hilary can run with a younger, probably Latino running mate (Castro?) and wreck the GOP–with a booming economy, and the shifting demographics, and the GOP’s unwillingness to stop running old white guys protecting the 1% and Wall Street, and the potential of a very popular Bill Clinton as co-President in charge of explaining shit, I think she’ll do very well. Take a few years off from SoS, re-charge her batteries, put together a campaign organization, and go.
I also think that one very good thing that came out of this election is Wall Street turning their backs (and their wallets) away from Obama this time–I don’t think they can expect the favors they got from him the first time around.
I would be shocked if it was Christie, and I think he’s had his moment in the sun. Besides being to the left of the Republican primary electorate, I suspect his role in Romney’s loss will not help endear him to Republican activists and party people. Plus, his blunt and confrontational style will wear thin after a while.
On top of that, there’s a very good chance that he loses re-election in 2013,
Jindal was/is a rising star, but while he is a very bright and capable guy, he apparently is not that charismatic, and he flubbed once when put in the spotlight.
I agree in general that the economy rises and falls and whoever is in the right/wrong place at the time gains/loses based on pure timing. (This applies to fat cat CEOs as well as politicians.)
But it’s hard to predict the timing. You would think it’s extremely likely that the economy will improve from this point into the near future, but it’s possible that by 2016 it will have begun another downturn again.
[4 years ago I thought the economy would have improved a lot more by 2012 than it actually did. (So did Obama.) The fact that it didn’t made this election a lot closer than it would have been.]
I think the Dems would be better focusing on the future rather than going with gramps and over-the-Hill-ary. There are lots of younger, capable folks who are ready for the challenge.
As for the GOP… they need to avoid another disaster of a primary. But I doubt they will be able to help themselves. They have taken over the title of “party that never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity”.
The Republicans just need to run on a platform of repealing Evolution, banning the use of Spanish and really go all out for the Rapist demographic and I’m sure they’ll be a shoo-in for 2016.
That’s the trick. I personally suspect that the European debt crisis is probably going to trigger a global credit crunch sometime in the next few years. When/if that happens, we might plunge into another recession quite quickly.
