Lost Mafia/Werewolf/Psychopath

The Game Room
1761

I wonder if Town has any other Gun Owners, if tonight would not be best for them to shoot.

Again, I’m not going to lie about what I can do tonight. It’s Nothing. It remains nothing. I still don’t understand how I apparently, allegedly, lied you guys in the first place. 1 remains a very limited number of bullets, to START the game out with.

Anyway.

If you recall, my Role stated I was a Gun Owner. As I said before, I will say again:

The rules that govern how a gun can exist, and how a gun can be used immediately strike me as being a multiple role power. That is to say, I remain convinced that there is another Vig in the game.

I can not prove it, I can only point to my role and state: “That’s a very peculiar way to give just ONE person this power.” The wording, to me, just comes off as ‘wrong’ for it to be given to just one person.

Then again, watch me die tonight. At least we will have our proof.

1762

Do you guys not read my posts?

Zeriel has been calling me Spaz every chance he had. That with the PIS that we got him on did him in.

You guys ask me for my reasons, and when I provide them, you guys apparently can’t find them. Even if they are immediately given in the next post.

1763

Here’s hoping.
Wait, did I say that out loud?

(I’m just kidding with you. Post scumkill afterglow).

1764

I assume you mean in regards to the additional Vig.

**
Mahaloth: Can I post the PMs we had together on my preliminary Gun Ownership questions? **

1765

Previous post in response to two posts above it.

This is news to you? Nobody knows what the fuck you’re talking about. I’m going to stop responding when I don’t, though, because apparently it doesn’t bother the others as much. So it’s my problem.

Anyway, you said that if you were told we were at lylo (which you said “please” about), you would show someone a liar. I took that to mean that you didn’t know what lylo meant, but that you had some kind of case to establish that somebody else was a liar.

But I mean, whatever. I’m sure you’re right, and I just misinterpreted. It’s almost certainly a problem of my being repeatedly unable to locate cogently stated reasons, which problem only exists with your posts, and not a problem of you shooting off half-cocked every other post in the thread.

1766

My guess is it’s not how much you’re saying, but that you’re saying the right things. And it’s also influenced by who has and hasn’t voted for you, not just whom you’ve voted for. More details will have to wait until I get home, though: Before I left this morning I ran a “what-if” scenario on the assumption that Zeriel was Scum, but I haven’t incorporated any of the votes yet from this past Day (I add them a full Day at a time, so as not to be influenced by things like who is and is not on on the weekends).

1767

Woosh.

Show me someone who is losing at golf, and I will show you someone playing against their boss.

The entire “I will show you a Liar” thing is more of a joke, than not. Again, I have no knolwege, and the entire joke is more OOG than not.

Since we got two scum in a row (Right?) there is no way we can be at Ly/Lo If indeed we were at Ly/Lo immediately prior to lynching Shadow. Do I have this wrong?

1768

Meeko -

You do indeed have it wrong. If we were at lynch-or-lose before Shadow’s lynch, then we will be at lynch-or-lose until the end of the game. If we weren’t, then we’re not.

And we’re probably not. Don’t think of it as lynch or lose. Think of it this way: we can mistakenly lynch one more non-Scum and still win. The minute we lynch a second player who is not Scum, we lose.

1769

And I would have pulled it off if it weren’t for you meddling kids, etc.

Go scum, yay scum!

1770

Did we have a hard number for scum? 3-5 right? So, either way, not more than 3 more nights, right?

1771

This doesn’t account for the fact that we Lynched two scum since then. We can afford a mislynch Now, that we couldn’t afford if indeed we were at Ly Lo before we lynched Shadow.

1772

Yes, we lynched two Scum since then, but the Scum have also night-killed two Town since then. It balances out. The only way to get out of a LyLo situation once you’re in it is for a Vigilante to kill Scum, or for a Doctor or the like to stop a scum Night-kill (neither of which is possible any more). Or to win the game completely, of course.

And I think we can now be pretty much certain that we started with exactly four Scum. Given the power roles we know we have, any more or less would make for a horribly unbalanced game.

Meanwhile, I doubt that there are any other gun-owners out there, but on the off chance that there are, sure, this would be a good time to shoot.

1773

OK, I’ve got all of the voting data from this past Day in now, and it’s good news. The full results:

Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal_fang
Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal_fang
Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal_fang
Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal_fang
Telcontar AllWalker Chronos Imaginary Fiend Meeko USCDiver pedescribe Scuba Ben Zeriel ShadowFacts Jimmy Chitwood storyteller cardinal_fang
Total number of possibilities: 5
Telcontar 1
AllWalker 0
Chronos 0
Imaginary Fiend 0
Meeko 0
USCDiver 1
pedescribe 0
Scuba Ben 2
Zeriel 5
ShadowFacts 5
Jimmy Chitwood 3
storyteller 0
cardinal_fang 3

Of particular note: If Telcontar is Scum, then so is cardinal_fang. And if USCDiver is Scum, then so is Jimmy Chitwood. And at least one of cardinal_fang or Jimmy Chitwood is Scum, regardless. If this is correct (as I believe it is), then we’re now in a position where we can definitely catch both Scum, with at most one more mislynch.

To re-iterate my method: I am assuming that a greater proportion of votes cast by Town are for Scum than are votes cast by Scum, and throwing out all scenarios which are not consistent with that. I did not include any data from the day ShadowFacts was lynched, since a unanimous vote carries essentially no information.

The full code:[spoiler]


[noparse]#include  <stdio.h>
#define n_players 13	/* Number of players under analysis */
#define max_scum 4	/* Maximum expected number of Scum */
#define min_scum 4	/* Minimum expected number of Scum */
#define scum_votes 15	/* Number of Scum votes cast so far */

main()
{
  int players[n_players];	/* Stores the alignment of each player.  0 = Town, 1 = Scum */
  unsigned int players_binary;
  unsigned int players_binary_shifting;
  char names[n_players][20] = {"Telcontar", "AllWalker", "Chronos", "Imaginary Fiend", "Meeko", "USCDiver", "pedescribe", "Scuba Ben", "Zeriel", "ShadowFacts", "Jimmy Chitwood", "storyteller", "cardinal_fang"};
  int n_scum;
  int buses;		/* Number of times Scum voted for Scum */
  int attacks;		/* Number of times Town voted for Scum */
  int i;
  int score[n_players];
  int total_scenarios = 0;
  int town_votes;
  for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) score* = 0;			/* Initialize everyone's score */

  for(players_binary=0; players_binary < 8192; players_binary++) {
    players_binary_shifting = players_binary;
    for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
      players* = players_binary_shifting & 1;		/* Populate the players[] array according to the value of players_binary */
      players_binary_shifting = players_binary_shifting >> 1;
    }

    n_scum = 0;
    buses = 0;
    attacks = 0;
    for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
      if(players* == 1) n_scum++;	/* Count the number of Scum */
    }
/* Count number of votes cast by Town */
    town_votes = 8; 				// Ichini, Tom, Nanook, and Oredigger cast 8 votes
    if(!players[0]) town_votes += 9;		// Telcontar cast 9 votes
    if(!players[1]) town_votes += 6;		// AllWalker cast 6 votes
    if(!players[2]) town_votes += 8;		// Chronos cast 8 votes
    if(!players[3]) town_votes += 2;		// Imaginary Fiend cast 2 votes
    if(!players[4]) town_votes += 12;		// Meeko cast 12 votes
    if(!players[5]) town_votes += 5;		// USCDiver cast 5 votes
    if(!players[6]) town_votes += 5;		// pede cast 5 votes
    if(!players[7]) town_votes += 9;		// Scuba_Ben cast 9 votes
    if(!players[8]) town_votes += 6;		// Zeriel cast 6 votes
    if(!players[9]) town_votes += 6;		// ShadowFacts cast 6 votes
    if(!players[10]) town_votes += 5;		// Jimmy cast 5 votes
    if(!players[11]) town_votes += 7;		// storyteller cast 7 votes
    if(!players[12]) town_votes += 5;		// cardinal_fang cast 5 votes
/* Count number of buses-- Only counting final votes */
    if(players[0] && players[3]) buses++;	// Telcontar voted for Fiend 
    if(players[3] && players[9]) buses++;	// Fiend voted for ShadowFacts 
    if(players[4] && players[5]) buses++;	// Meeko voted for BillMC/USCDiver 
    if(players[4] && players[12]) buses++;	// Meeko voted for cardinal_fang 
    if(players[5] && players[4]) buses++;	// USCDiver voted for Meeko
    if(players[5] && players[2]) buses++;	// USCDiver voted for Chronos 
    if(players[6] && players[3]) buses++;	// pede voted for Fiend 
    if(players[8] && players[1]) buses++;	// Zeriel voted for AllWalker 
    if(players[9] && players[7]) buses++;	// ShadowFacts voted for Scuba_Ben 
    if(players[10] && players[6]) buses++;	// Jimmy Chitwood voted for pede 
    if(players[10] && players[2]) buses++;	// Jimmy Chitwood voted for Chronos 
    if(players[12] && players[3]) buses++;	// cardinal_fang voted for Fiend 
    if(players[12] && players[2]) buses++;	// cardinal_fang voted for Chronos 

    if(players[0] && players[6]) buses++;	// Telcontar voted for pede
    if(players[1] && players[7]) buses++;	// AllWalker voted for Scuba
    if(players[5] && players[2]) buses++;	// USCDiver voted for Chronos
    if(players[8] && players[2]) buses++;	// Zeriel voted for Chronos
    if(players[10] && players[2]) buses++;	// Jimmy voted for Chronos
    if(players[12] && players[2]) buses++;	// cardinal_fang voted for Chronos

    if(players[0] && players[8]) buses++;	// Telcontar voted Zeriel
    if(players[2] && players[8]) buses++;	// Chronos voted Zeriel
    if(players[4] && players[8]) buses++;	// Meeko voted Zeriel
    if(players[5] && players[8]) buses++;	// USCDiver voted Zeriel
    if(players[7] && players[5]) buses++;	// Scuba voted USCDiver
    if(players[8] && players[5]) buses++;	// Zeriel voted USCDiver
    if(players[10] && players[8]) buses++;	// Jimmy voted Zeriel
    if(players[11] && players[5]) buses++;	// storyteller voted USCDiver
    if(players[12] && players[5]) buses++;	// cardinal_fang voted USCDiver
/* Count number of attacks-- End of day */

    if(!players[0] && players[3]) attacks++;	// Telcontar voted for Fiend 
    if(!players[3] && players[9]) attacks++;	// Fiend voted for ShadowFacts 
    if(!players[4] && players[5]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted for BillMC/USCDiver 
    if(!players[4] && players[12]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted for cardinal_fang 
    if(!players[5] && players[4]) attacks++;	// USCDiver voted for Meeko
    if(!players[5] && players[2]) attacks++;	// USCDiver voted for Chronos 
    if(!players[6] && players[3]) attacks++;	// pede voted for Fiend 
    if(!players[8] && players[1]) attacks++;	// Zeriel voted for AllWalker 
    if(!players[9] && players[7]) attacks++;	// ShadowFacts voted for Scuba_Ben 
    if(!players[10] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Jimmy Chitwood voted for pede 
    if(!players[10] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Jimmy Chitwood voted for Chronos 
    if(!players[12] && players[3]) attacks++;	// cardinal_fang voted for Fiend 
    if(!players[12] && players[2]) attacks++;	// cardinal_fang voted for Chronos 

    if(players[3]) attacks += 2;		// Tom Scud and Nanook (known Town) voted Fiend
    if(players[11]) attacks++;			// Ichini (known Town) voted storyteller
    if(players[2]) attacks++;			// Oredigger (known Town) voted Chronos

    if(!players[0] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Telcontar voted for pede
    if(!players[1] && players[7]) attacks++;	// AllWalker voted for Scuba
    if(!players[5] && players[2]) attacks++;	// USCDiver voted for Chronos
    if(!players[8] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Zeriel voted for Chronos
    if(!players[10] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Jimmy voted for Chronos
    if(!players[12] && players[2]) attacks++;	// cardinal_fang voted for Chronos

    if(!players[0] && players[8]) attacks++;	// Telcontar voted Zeriel
    if(!players[2] && players[8]) attacks++;	// Chronos voted Zeriel
    if(!players[4] && players[8]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted Zeriel
    if(!players[5] && players[8]) attacks++;	// USCDiver voted Zeriel
    if(!players[7] && players[5]) attacks++;	// Scuba voted USCDiver
    if(!players[8] && players[5]) attacks++;	// Zeriel voted USCDiver
    if(!players[10] && players[8]) attacks++;	// Jimmy voted Zeriel
    if(!players[11] && players[5]) attacks++;	// storyteller voted USCDiver
    if(!players[12] && players[5]) attacks++;	// cardinal_fang voted USCDiver
/* Count number of buses-- Withdrawn votes */
/*    if(players[0] && players[6]) buses++;	// Telcontar voted for pede 
    if(players[1] && players[4]) buses++;	// AllWalker voted for Meeko 
    if(players[2] && players[3]) buses++;	// Chronos voted for Fiend 
    if(players[4] && players[6]) buses++;	// Meeko voted for pede 
    if(players[4] && players[10]) buses++;	// Meeko voted for Jimmy 
    if(players[4] && players[3]) buses++;	// Meeko voted for Fiend 
    if(players[5] && players[1]) buses++;	// USCDiver voted for AllWalker 
    if(players[6] && players[2]) buses++;	// pede voted for Chronos 
    if(players[6] && players[4]) buses++;	// pede voted for Meeko
    if(players[7] && players[9]) buses++;	// Scuba voted for Shadowfacts 
    if(players[7] && players[8]) buses++;	// Scuba voted for Zeriel 
    if(players[9] && players[0]) buses++;	// Shadow voted for Telcontar 
    if(players[10] && players[3]) buses++;	// Jimmy voted for Fiend 
    if(players[11] && players[2]) buses++;	// storyteller voted for Chronos 
    if(players[12] && players[6]) buses++;	// cardinal_fang voted for pede 

    if(players[0] && players[11]) buses++;	// Telcontar voted for storyteller
    if(players[2] && players[11]) buses++;	// Chronos voted for storyteller
    if(players[4] && players[5]) buses++;	// Meeko voted for USCDiver
    if(players[4] && players[7]) buses++;	// Meeko voted for Scuba
    if(players[7] && players[2]) buses++;	// Scuba voted for Chronos
    if(players[7] && players[11]) buses++;	// Scuba voted for storyteller
    if(players[9] && players[7]) buses++;	// Shadow voted for Scuba

*/
/* Count number of attacks-- Withdrawn votes */
    if(!players[0] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Telcontar voted for pede 
    if(!players[1] && players[4]) attacks++;	// AllWalker voted for Meeko 
    if(!players[2] && players[3]) attacks++;	// Chronos voted for Fiend 
    if(!players[4] && players[6]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted for pede 
    if(!players[4] && players[10]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted for Jimmy 
    if(!players[4] && players[3]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted for Fiend 
    if(!players[5] && players[1]) attacks++;	// USCDiver voted for AllWalker 
    if(!players[6] && players[2]) attacks++;	// pede voted for Chronos 
    if(!players[6] && players[4]) attacks++;	// pede voted for Meeko
    if(!players[7] && players[9]) attacks++;	// Scuba voted for Shadowfacts 
    if(!players[7] && players[8]) attacks++;	// Scuba voted for Zeriel 
    if(!players[9] && players[0]) attacks++;	// Shadow voted for Telcontar 
    if(!players[10] && players[3]) attacks++;	// Jimmy voted for Fiend 
    if(!players[11] && players[2]) attacks++;	// storyteller voted for Chronos 
    if(!players[12] && players[6]) attacks++;	// cardinal_fang voted for pede 

    if(players[4]) attacks += 2;		// Tom Scud and Oredigger (known Town) voted Meeko

    if(!players[0] && players[11]) attacks++;	// Telcontar voted for storyteller
    if(!players[2] && players[11]) attacks++;	// Chronos voted for storyteller
    if(!players[4] && players[5]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted for USCDiver
    if(!players[4] && players[7]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted for Scuba
    if(!players[7] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Scuba voted for Chronos
    if(!players[7] && players[11]) attacks++;	// Scuba voted for storyteller
    if(!players[9] && players[7]) attacks++;	// Shadow voted for Scuba

    if(!players[0] && players[5]) attacks++;	// Telcontar voted USCDiver
    if(!players[0] && players[7]) attacks++;	// Telcontar voted Scuba
    if(!players[2] && players[10]) attacks++;	// Chronos voted Jimmy
    if(!players[4] && players[2]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted Chronos
    if(!players[4] && players[5]) attacks++;	// Meeko voted USCDiver
    if(!players[8] && players[10]) attacks++;	// Zeriel voted Jimmy

    if((min_scum<=n_scum) && (n_scum<=max_scum))	/* Throw out cases with wrong number of Scum */
    if((attacks)*scum_votes > (buses)*town_votes)		/* Throw out cases with Scum not voting Scummily */

/* Add other assumptions (delete or add any considered appropriate) */
    if(players[2] == 0) 		/* Assume Chronos Town */
    if(players[4] == 0) 		/* Assume Meeko Town */
    if(players[3] == 0)			/* Fiend was Town */
    if(players[1] == 0)			/* AllWalker was Town */
    if(players[11] == 0)		/* AllWalker breadcrumbed storyteller */
    if(players[6] == 0)			/* pede was Jack */
    if(players[9] == 1)			/* Shadow was Scum */
    if(players[8] == 1)			/* What if? */
			{
      total_scenarios++;

/* Output all scenarios */
      for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) {
        if(players* == 0) printf("%s ",names*);
        if(players* == 1) { 
          printf("%s ",names*);
          score*++;
        }
      }
      printf("
");
    }
  }
  
/* Output scores */
  fprintf(stderr,"Total number of possibilities:  %d
",total_scenarios);
  for(i=0;i<n_players;i++) fprintf(stderr,"%s	%d
",names*,score*);

  return(0);
}[/noparse]

[/spoiler]

1774

How wildly does it change the outputs if you take one or more of your three assumed-towns and unassume them (or them)? Otherwise, the game’s over.

And I understand that this only works from my perspective, but if what you’ve posted is correct, then I already know definitively who the scum are. And that’s a little hard to believe.

1775

Sorry, misread what you had posted.

So I don’t know definitively, I just know that it’s one of two scenarios.

1776

If I un-assume Meeko, then there are four additional possibilities: Meeko and one of Telcontar, Scuba, Jimmy, or cardinal_fang.
If I un-assume storyteller, then there are five additional possibilities: storyteller and one of Telcontar, USCDiver, Scuba, Jimmy, or cardinal_fang.
If I un-assume myself, then there are two additional possibilities: Myself and either Telcontar or Scuba.

1777

Wait, this isn’t quite right. If, say, cardinal_fang turns out to be Town, that would mean that Jimmy Chitwood is Scum, but wouldn’t tell us whether the last Scum is USCDiver or Scuba_Ben. Likewise, if Jimmy Chitwood turns out to be Town, then cardinal_fang would be Scum, but we wouldn’t know whether the last Scum was Scuba or Telcontar. It’s still an 80% chance, though, even without taking other information into account.

1778

Right, that’s the same mistake I made. So relying on the program exclusively isn’t an instant win button (even barring conspiracy theories regarding malicious coding, etc.).

I think it’s fair to rely on it as a sort of roadmap, though, as long as the assumptions are out in the open and we can test them. For instance, we could decide who we want to lynch next day independent of those results, and then the program logic shows us where to start once we get a result from that.

1779

:smack:

Here I Was about to vote. It’s still night, correct?

Did we decide on changing Night duration?

1780

**Night ends on Thursday instead of Friday this week. **