The Parting Thoughts of John Locke
In about 90 minutes, I won’t be in this game anymore. Figure I’d best get everything I can out before then, even though I lack a huge amount of time right now. First, a disclaimer: when I’m dead, there will be a tendency to attach significance to my final thoughts not attached to the rest of my posts because I’ll be a dead, confirmed Town Detective. Please do not do this. I know no more than I did before, and I have never received a reading on anyone.
Now, then. Gamestate. The following are the players that will be alive come Dawn, and their role claims:
Meeko - James “Sawyer” Ford - VIGILANTE
Chronos - Michael Dawson - VANILLA
Telecontar - Ana Lucia Cortez - VANILLA
Scuba_Ben - Charlie Pace - VANILLA
Jimmy Chitwood - Rose Nadler - VANILLA
USCDiver - Daniel Faraday - VANILLA (changed role PM)
cardinal_fang - Claire Littleton - VANILLA
Seven players, most likely 5-2 in favor of Scum. If you mislynch toMorrow, it goes to 4-2. Meeko is killed that Night (3-2), and the last three Townies will have to root out the last remaining Scum on the subsequent Day. You will have one, and only one, mislynch to burn.
Observations:
- I am extremely suspicious of USC Diver and think he should be lynched. I have reviewed some of my reasons previously: notably, he is the only unknown player to have voted for Meeko Day One (all of the others are Town). The action of yesterDay suggests at least the possibility of two Scum on the block (if Diver is Scum, by the way, the odds that Telecontar drew attention to himself by pinballing around to get one Scum lynched over another go way down). One more observation about Diver, related to the name claims, of all things.
We have caught two Scum. Of them, one has had a cover role from the Fuselage Survivors (Boone Carlyle) and one from the Tail Section Survivors (Mister Eko). We have one dead Townie whose role was neither of the above; this Townie was a Frieghter-rider (Miles Straume).
Of all the players who have claimed or died, only a total of two have claimed Tail Section names (Ana-Lucia [Telecontar] and Mister Eko [lying Zeriel]). A total of two have claimed Frieghter names (Miles [AllWalker] and Daniel [USCDiver]). Every other player has claimed a Fuselage survivor name.
Consider the way the game was likely developed, and the late addition of cover roles to the Scum. We can’t have certainty, but here’s what seems most plausible to me: Mahaloth initially designed the game with pro-Town roles drawn from all areas (from all seasons, he said explicitly). This would have included many Fuselage Survivors, and then at least one Tailie and at least one Frieghter-person. Then he was called upon to give cover roles to the Scum. My guess is that he assigned cover roles representative of the canon in roughly the same way that the real Town roles were. That is, at least one Scum cover from among the Tailies, and at least one from among the Frieghter folk.
If I am right about this, then Telecontar is Town (because Ana-Lucia is the only Tailie left claimed who wasn’t lying about it). The alternative is that the only two Tail Section survivors inserted into the game were both Scum. Possible? Certainly. Likely, probably not.
If I am right, then USC Diver is Scum. Miles was the real pro-Town Frieghter-person, Daniel is the cover. It’s an elegant design, one that makes sense. Also, again remember that of all the possible pairs of players who knew one another off-island, NONE were included in this game… other than Miles and “Daniel.”
This is all incredibly speculative. I find it compelling, and if I were going to be alive my vote would be on Diver within minutes of Dawn.
Two more points, to come under separate cover.
