Given that the game is supposed to be split 4 ways, why would they now be our biggest concern? As far as the town is concerned, all three scum factions are a threat (assuming they exist), are balanced and capable of winning.
They were very unlucky but not necessarily underpowered.
So Hawkeyeop, why do you think the Cabal has a Kill at all?
I neither played in nor followed Conspiracy 1, which seems to equal out in pros and cons. The intricate weaving of balance and potential role interactions of this particular set up is new to me, but I don’t have to unlearn anything from last time.
I’ve proven to be previously god-awful at spotting individual contributor power role tells, even when they are bread–crumbed on purpose. I tend to key in on trying to spot the long cons, where scum try to move the town towards the cliffs in a coordinatedly uncoordinated fashion.
I have no earthly idea how this set up will end up interacting with my habits and tendencies.
As Hawkeyeop said, if Pleonast felt that the Cabal was eliminated last game due more to their lack of power than to their luck, then they may quite well be overpowered this game, and therefore our greatest threat. IMHO, either they were underpowered last game and have now been brought up to the 25% threshold, or were actually at 25% last game and are now overpowered.
The Cabal secret powers in the first Conspiracy game were:
They didn’t get a chance to use them. Will Pleonast feel the powers, given a chance, are powerful enough?
I definitley, definitley don’t see this. This would make the cabal much more powerful, and we would lose one of our strongest power roles. That would probably pretty much doom us.
I don’t know if I’d go quite that far, but I do think that having both the Witches and the Seer together would be too powerful. That kinda pushes me towards thinking that there is no Seer.
I’ll personally be assuming we have at least a representative sample of all possible pieces on the game board. We’re playing with the highest number players that the setup was designed to support +1.
So my first subtle ping of foreboding is coming from the general direction of anyone trying to rationalize why/how any of the potential roles might not be present, which was followed quickly by wondering how wise it is to cite much of anything with respect to the role mechanics of Conspiracy 1. This is not Conspiracy 1.
My eyebrows are arched at Dio and Zsofia’s at this point.
Well, I hadn’t read Conspiracy 1 or known much about the mechanics, so I’m just trying to get a handle on what strategy could be. I’ve only played simpler games. So in this one, scum has nothing like the semi-perfect information they have in the games I’ve played, but town doesn’t have the numbers either. On the other hand, scum will hopefully kill each other to some extent, because they don’t know all that much themselves. I’m just trying to figure out what the tells for any of these roles might be, and what our strategy should be.
Although it’s true that this isn’t Conspiracy 1, the game was made by the same creator, who has the same general thoughts, ideals, and beliefs about gameplay and strategy as he did when he designed the first game. The game was made on the same basic template, as is evidenced by the similarity of the described roles (they even share a name, for cryin’ out loud). I understand they’re not identical, and you’re right in that we have to be careful about that, but I don’t think speculation comparing what happened last game, combined with comments that were publicly posted at the end of the last game describing aspects players felt needed tweaking, is out of line.
As **Santo ** stated, the Cabal had X chance to win last game. They did not come close to winning. I’d venture to guess that their chance of winning was less than 25%. I’d also say it is likely that Pleo made them more powerful than last time. Pleo only has one previous game to go on. If he determines from that the cabal need a major power boost, and in actuality they only needed a minor one and better luck, the Cabal could be very dangerous. Say the previous Cabal had a 20% chance of winning, and Pleo gave them another 10% (of 100 not 20) chance. They would now be at 30% and probably the most dangerous scum group. I’m sure Pleo made the game as balanced as he could, but there is a natural tendency to allow the most recent evidence to have disproportionally large affect on one’s analysis.
As for them having the ability to kill, Pleo said this game will be very bloody. I don’t recall the first game being that bloody. Thus, I think there are likely more killers this time around, and the cabal seem like the most logical group to have an added kill ability.
Just to be clear this is all speculation, and I have no inside information to go on.
RoOsh, Dio, any thoughts on what happens when a mod says a game will be very bloody? 
I agree. Although the roles and set up are identical, on my read through, there are a heck of a lot more participants in this go round. 22 (as noted above - don’t hang me on this technicality if it ain’t right) to 31, 40 percent more - right Blam, merely referenced in a consultive manner.
It’s been a while and I only skimmed the original but I seem to remember a sense that the Undead were the biggest threat to the town. At least at end game.
If there are multiple Vamps, as well as other killing roles the friggin corpses will be stacked up against the wall like kindling. Freakin Nec could have a field day.
Idea for a future role: The Diabetic. Can prick the fingers of other layers with his/her blood glucose meter each Night and slowly bleed everyone else on the road to artificially sweet victory. 
It’s Night One, for gak’s sake. What the heck else do we have to talk about besides the possible game set-up?
And why is your eyebrow only raised at **Dio **and Zsofia? dotchan started this train of thought going and CatInASuit had a pretty decent set-up speculation IIRC, among others. What was different about **Dio’s **and **Zsofia’s **speculation?
I agree with Santo that, while we need to keep in mind this is not the same set-up as Conspiracy 1, there is some useful discussion to be had. Posts like yours are going to make people wary of discussion, and that’s the last thing we need!
Why am I trying to rationalize these things? Because we don’t have anything else to do right now other than talk about the set-up, Cookies. And while this is not Conspiracy 1, it is a game modded by roughly the same ruleset as Con1, and modded by the same guy as Con1. A Moderator who made some public discussion of his thoughts on ‘rebalancing’ the game after the end of that game.
I’m pretty sure you’ve figured this out by now: more information helps the town. Figuring out what we’re dealing with benefits us: the scum (well, the Wolves and Undead, at least, the Cabal less so) already know what they have to do this game.
What’s wrong with trying to use every scrap of information possible (given that we don’t take it as gospel)?
:mad:
It means that a certain Rugger is going to get the Leonardo da Vinci role next game of mine he plays…
Gratuitous snipping to prove a point. To paraphrase, “anybody who disagrees with what I think is scum”. I must first disclose that I’ve attacked Cookies the last three (?) times we’ve both been Town on Day 1 for posts that rub me the wrong way, as this one does more and more as I keep thinking about it.
Over in Cecilvania, the Town has simply accused people of being scum for a single reason, and pursued them until they were lynched. Nobody is asking why the scum would do that, and what their motivations are. So, I feel compelled to ask, Cookies, why would Dio and Zsofia, as scum, suggest that certain roles might not exist?
Although it’s bad form to talk about current games, I think this was obvious enough to anybody following it that the previous paragraph is not out of line. Also, I say “the Town” because I’m talking about the game from an outside perspective, so don’t anybody get any bright ideas.
But I don’t know Italian!
You don’t need to know Italian. Knowing a bit of nailatI might help, though.
It seems like it would be pretty amateurish to think I could, were I a particular kind of scum, escape detection by convincing 30 people that there was no such thing as me.
And at any rate, I just quoted what the special powers were for one group in the previous game - I wasn’t even really arguing for anybody’s existence or lack thereof, except that the mod said the game would be “bloody” which to me would argue as many as possible groups and a lot of night kills.