I’ll be flying back home tomorrow and will be more or less unavailable. Dusk reveal should be on schedule on Wednesday.
And now we have four doubled up town roles as well as an infestation of Masons. Yeeps. My power is now essentially useless other than being a warm body on the bench. Also, I am just not as good at this as a lot of the rest of you folks. Why not 50/50 between me and Pollux? I don’t believe that there are two Vicars. Let’s put one of us in the ground and at least take one data point off the map.
I think that PO’s late claim is feeble. We should have suspected a while back when the zombies ceased showing up that the Nec was toast. Added benefit. Whichever one of us doesn’t get stretched is not going to survive the night. So if you stretch me and pollux survives the night he is either the last vamp or one of a dwindling population of wolf or cabal.
Also it gives time for Terminex to get to the frat house and figure out what is going on.
“Ask not what the town can do for you, but rather what you can do for the town”
“Mr. Gorbachev, this wall must come down”
“Mmmmm, beer”
I honestly think it was a complete coincidence that I was dumb once and out of range once. I’m grateful to be spared but by no means expected it. I think I’d have been informed if that was my power being used, and also I would have been revealed. I wouldn’t metagame my incredible resistence to lightening.
And cookie already pointed out the flaw in my reasoning.
Maybe your personality is not as electrifying as nook’s.
Lame but what the hey. Daughter doing even better today so all is right with the world from my stand point.
Hey Peeker,
First, I am really glad that your daughter is doing well after her surgery. My mom had a similar surgery a few years ago and I remember just how scary that sort of thing can be.
Second, I think you are working under a false premise here. I don’t see why there couldn’t be two vicars. Is it likely…I don’t know, I haven’t run any numbers, but it instinctually seems possible to me. Same thing with me and story. It’s why I didn’t say boo when story claimed, I really do believe that story and I have the same role. I find is much less likely that there would be two vigs and even less likely than that for the to be two scottsmen. But again, I haven’t run any numbers.
I can run some numbers in the morning if you like, but I think people like Story or Mhaye who are a bit more into that sort of thing could run their own numbers and probably come to the same conclusion as me on how likely each role is to be doubled up. But on a gut level I find it almost impossible to believe that there are multiple scotsmen in the game. And after saying all that, I think I have decided what to do with my vote. I think I will leave my vote where it is. I can still test the other scotsman role toNight.
I know what my role is, but even if I didn’t, considering what happened to Redwing and the probability that the same fate might befall anyone else playing a Vig role, I just don’t think it is a stretch for there to be two Vigs in this game.
Sorry, I’d forgotten about that post.
I’m going to
vote Zsofia
If you’re lying then good riddance, if not then you don’t permanently die, and whilst you may be targeted for night death by scum, that would still leave us only one town down, rather than two. I chose you over Omi because of the secret power claim.
OK. NAF raises an interesting question: what of the doubling of pro-Town roles? I was thinking about this all night long - enough so that it actually disrupted my sleep, so how’s that for too into a game? - and here’s where I stand. I very much welcome comments, particularly on assumptions.
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We have four claimed Freemasons and one dead one. Assumption the First: There were at least three Freemasons at the start of the game, which means no more than two, and as many as three (I don’t think we had five Freemasons to start) of our current claimants is scum.
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We have seen the deaths of three Caballeros, five wolves, and two undead (is that correct?). Assumption the Second: There are probably 3-5 scum remaining, including 1-2 wolves, 1 undead, and 1-2 Caballeros.
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I know myself to be telling the truth. Assumption the Third: I accept mhaye’s and Koldanar’s claims without hesitation.
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That leaves two paired claimants (peeker/Pollux and Omi/Zsofia) and two lone claimants whose roles definitely already exist (Cookies and NAF).
So:
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It is distantly possible, but very distantly, that all of the non-Freemason claims are true (ie, there are currently one of each scum group remaining, and all have claimed Freemason). I dismiss this possibility, not because it’s impossible but because if it’s the case, we’re going to cruise to the endgame here almost whatever we do.
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Here is something that IS a possibility: the game really is as simple in design as I have suggested it might be in the past. Drainbead is lying, and the rest of the three claimants are Masons. NAF is lying scum; Cookies is lying scum. One each of the Vicar and Scotsman pairings is truthful, one each is scum. That leaves us with a set-up that would be balanced, and in which every single pro-Town role (other than Witches or Freemasons) appears a single time.
Now, for options in the middle. I don’t think there are three scum left total. I think there are at least four, and possibly five. I also don’t think that any more than two of the current Freemason claimants are lying (per the above). Thus, I consider it a cold stone certainty that at least two of the non-Freemason, non-cleared-by-me-at-least claimants are lying. Three might be. FOUR might be.
Which ones?
Two Scotsmen and two Magicians, in my opinion, would be grossly unbalanced come endgame. Remember, Scotsmen cannot be Night killed, at least, not without wasting one first. The existence of two Scotsmen, in and of itself, would dramatically increase the burden on the scum groups to achieve a win. Now throw in two Magicians, who similarly can’t be Night killed on the first try. This is an absolutely unsustainable challenge for the scum. Since I know that I’m not lying, I posit as CONCLUSION #1 -
At least one of the trio NAF, Zsofia, and Omi No Kami is lying.
Two Vicars make, let’s call it a little bit of sense. I guess. Wait, no, screw it, no they don’t. I realize that’s the Town consensus, but just wait a cotton picking minute. You set up an Undead team with three players. Unlike the other Scum groups, they don’t know one another, and thus could easily crossfire their own team into nonexistence. Two of them are killers. One player has a chance to create enough zombies for the Undead to snatch an early victory, and you’re going to further hose this team by increasing the chances that a zombification will fail by a factor of [something less than two because the putative two Vicars could overlap]. Nope. Bullshit.
CONCLUSION 2 - Either peeker or Pollux is lying.
Finally, Cookies. Two Vigilantes is entirely possible. The game was obviously designed such that lynching perfectly would not win the game for the Town. Forcing the Town to rely purely on crosskills would have been unfair; from a Town perspective, the game would have really gone on autopilot at that point, with no chance of winning beyond blind luck. Vigs are a hedge against this, but with the suicide chance and the chance of death, why not two Vigs? Of course, the setup doesn’t demand it, but still:
CONCLUSION #3 - I have no current opinion on the truth value of Cookies’ claim.
The current prevailing opinion is “let’s lynch a Scotsman candidate,” and I not only disagree with this course of action, I consider it a likely Wolf or Vampire strategy, assuming that Wolf or Vampire, respectively, is not a false Scotsman. Think about it: everyone is talking about how, if we lynch a Scotsman and we’re wrong, hey, no harm done, but harm is done. The existence of a Scotsman toward endgame is HUGELY problematic for the kiling factions, because THEY CAN’T KILL HIM ON THE FIRST TRY. And if they make that first try, he gets confirmed. Once we lynch a Scotsman, he/she can be Night killed, and eliminated as a threat.
So I turn my attention toward Pollux, peeker, and NAF. Others may wish to do the same, but include me in the calculus. In any case, I do not agree that lynching a claimed Scotsman is the best course of action for the Town toDay.
Story,
I agree with your entire post. The only thing that I don’t know what to do about is your problem with the lynch the scotsman theory. What would you have us do? I do understand that this is a decent wolf or vamp strategy, but that doesn’t make it not a decent town strategy too. Here is my problem with lynching anyone BUT one of the claimed scottsmen. I think it is stupid to lynch a claimed mason at this point. People who aren’t masons who claimed to be will get outed by the real masons soon enough. That is a risk with very little reward at the moment because of the delayed reveal. If I am missing something here let me know, but I don’t think I am.
We certainly aren’t going to lynch on of the mostly confirmeds. So that leaves us with one of the claimed vicars, one of the claimed scotsmen, one of the magicians (probably me since I think everyone agrees that you are a magician) or cookies. Cookies and myself will be verified after toNight, and that is much more quick and efficient than lynching either of us. So that leaves the Scotmen or the Vicars. If we lynch one of the vicars it is a 50-50 shot at best. I don’t see Pollux or Peeker looking any more scummy than the other (though if someone has a good case against one of them I am all ears.). The option with the smallest downside seems to be lynching a Scot. Am I wrong? What do you think the better choice is? What am I not seeing?
Agreed. Not to mention that because I believe Koldanar’s claim, then our most likely target among the Freemasons - Drain Bead - is likely to be a Wolf, and I’m not inclined toward hunting fuzzies toDay. So no, I’d take voting for the Freemasons off the table altogether.
Ah, no, I’m afraid not. No matter what happens toNight, neither you nor Cookies will be anything like confirmed. If Cookies purports to be attacking you, and you purport to be redirecting the kill toward (say) Omi No Kami, and Omi is indeed attacked and survives (and assuming you offer confirmation that Cookies attacked you and you redirected and she confirms the same), that proves virtually nothing. You could both be Wolves, using your regular Night kill on Omi. You (NAF) could be telling the gospel truth, and Cookies could be our Vamp. About the only thing not possible there is that Cookies is being truthful and you’re not. So executing this little plan, ultimately, won’t hurt us excessively, but it won’t confirm jack.
And that leaves aside the possibility that the Cabal will block Cookies, or that she’ll claim to have been blocked if she’s scum. Or that the Cabal will block you (NAF), leading, I think, to your death.
The more I examine it, the less this plan seems like a good one.
A 50-50 shot “at best?” Jeez, I hope not. It should be a 50-50 shot if we flip a coin. If we actually, you know, spend some time looking at how Pollux and Peeker have behaved during this game, one would think our chances could only improve.
Here’s where I stand. I want to look at the post histories of NAF, Pollux, and Peeker. I very well may vote for one of them.
I also revise my previous opinion, and put Cookies back on the table. I have a question for her, for starters:
Cookies, why didn’t you target Drain Bead last Night? You were willing to climb out on a substantial limb to shoot at a pure lurker in fluiddruid, but we had what seemed like fair evidence that Drain Bead might be scummy. Her death last Night would have led to an even quicker resolution of the Freemason questions. Why were you cautious in this case?
Maybe I am just jaded at this point. I trust my ability to farret out scum, but not my ability to convice anyone that I am right. (I haven’t ever been succesful so far in any game I have played) I frankly do trust a couple of other people’s abilities as well…but on the whole we as a town have never been able to do the whole co-opperate and come to a decent conclusion about who and what is scummy.
HONESTLY, my gut is saying that if either peeker or pollux is lying that pollux is the more likely liar…but I don’t really know that I can prove it one way or the other. Day ends tomorrow, and I really shouldn’t be this lazy this far into the game so let me see what I can do in the way of presenting a case. If I can come up with something compelling in favor of lynching either of them I have no problem moving my vote.
Re-read Pollux Oil. It took just no time at all, primarily because he’s posted very little, on a relative scale, and never anything controversial or especially substantive. I’ve long since stopped thinking of lurking as a tell of any kind in and of itself, but the bottom line is he has made it difficult to assess his play via post analysis.
NAF next.
Well damned if I am not a lazy fuckin’ asshole.
Everyone, I don’t have time to do the whole copy paste thing, but try this for me.
Do a search on Pollux Oil’s full name between pages 5 and 15. It shouldn’t take you too long. Look at how Shadow defends Pollux in those pages and notice Drain Bead’s contribution.
I am down to switch.
unvote Zsofia
vote Pollux Oil
NETA:
I am asking you too read what Pollux has to say, what Oredigger has to say, and how quickly and strongly DB and Shadow jumped him to save him. I find this to be equally damning for DB as it is for Pollux based solely on the fact that we know Shadow was a wolf and would be willing to vote for her instead if that is the way town is leaning.
NAF - if the suggestion here is that Pollux is a Wolf, why then would we vote for him instead of Drain Bead?
Time to review the claims.
When dealing with the Freemason claims, it’s worth reviewing the evolution of the current status, keeping in mind the known powers of Freemasons, and specifically that the power is used in the Day.
The first claim was by Drain Bead in Day 5, after Koldanar made his Seer claim and asserted that DB was a Freemason. As was recognised at the time, this was ambiguous, because of the Omega Wolf’s power to appear as a Freemason (except to other Masons). This went uncontested that whole Day.
Once Night 5 had fallen, OAOW claimed Freemason in post [post=10054009]1938[/post]. He contradicted DB’s claim, saying he had investigated and she was not a Freemason.
Hawkeyeop claimed in post [post=10059866]1995[/post], but said he had not investigated either of the claimants. Neither did he give a list of claimants. cckerberos asked for the list, and why he did not check DB out, in post [post=10059932]1997[/post]. Hawkeyeop responded to this in post [post=10062066]2027[/post] and (as you can see) completely ignored the request for a list of investigatees. The question might have been overlooked, or it might be because he hadn’t invented a plausible list.
cckerberos claimed Mason in post[post=10060296]2004[/post], and listed his investigatees. He supports OAOW’s claim that DB is not a Freemason.
From this evolution of claims, I would suggest that the balance of evidence is that Drain Bead is the Omega Wolf and Hawkeyeop may well be a non-Townsperson of another colour.
Since my lynch priority is Vampire before Cabal before Werewolf right now, that moves Hawkeyeop to the top of my lynch list. This is not a final decision, as there are a couple of players I want to review first.
Why not? My suggestion is they are both wolves.
Well, I’m not confident about a lot, but I’m comparatively confident that Drain Bead is the Omega Wolf. If she’s not, then two scum are outed (Wanderers and cckerberos) and Hawkeyeop is all-but confirmed. That’s a dangerous game to be playing for the scum just to bring about one lousy mislynch.
Given that, the ONLY argument against voting Drain Bead would be that we’re better off hunting Vampire or Cabal at this stage of the game, and leaving the Wolf in hand until later.
Why bother lynching someone who might be a Wolf, versus someone who is almost surely a Wolf?
I don’t know if I’m asking this properly.
NETA:
Here is my working theory story, so my thought process is totally transparent.
Omi or Zsofia is Cabal
Pollux is a wolf
DB is a wolf
Cookies is a Vamp.
Everyone else is town.
There may actually be one more cabal left, but I don’t know that we care right now do we? I would think wolf or vamp is the best possibility for lynch and I just don’t see anyone wanting to lynch cookies right now. Would I be able to convince you to do that?
Didn’t think so.