[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
I was one of those who said he was likely to be night-killed if he’s lying, and I can see now why you might find that confusing. What I meant was: he’s likely to be targeted by a scum faction (or factions) who want to kill a Witch. If he’s NOT a Witch, he’s not going to be protected by the real witches, so unless someone else protects him, he’s toast.
So, to sum up: I expect that scum may target him in the hopes of offing a Witch. If he’s really a Witch, his sisters will protect him. If he’s lying, he’s likely to be dead. Does that make sense?
[/QUOTE]
Which faction is going to kill him?
Let’s assume (for the purposes of this post) that Nanook is in fact lying. We have four possible “true roles” - Cabal, Werewolf, Undead or Townie with a “safe” claim - that is, one which you can’t easily prove.
If he’s a Cabalist, he’s at risk from either faction. Why did he claim? Apart from the fact that his neck is on the block and this claim buys him a Day or two, he’d like nothing better than to provoke a counterclaim. They have to eliminate two Witches, as well as the other two anti-Town factions, to win.
If he’s a Werewolf, then he’s at risk from the Vampire, but not from the Cabal. Because the Cabal can’t kill. There is a possibility that the Cabal’s secret power gives them the capability to Nightkill - I wouldn’t be surprised if they did in fact have that capability (possibly similar in flavour to the Magician’s redirection).
Finally, the Undead. If he’s a Vampire, then he’s self-protecting. The only role who can kill him is the Vigilante, and no self-respecting Vig is going to kill a claimed Witch on Night 1, because if he finds he is wrong, then he’ll have to kill himself (on Night 3). If, on the other hand, he is the Necromancer, he’s just set himself up as a juicy target to both the Werewolves and the Vampire with no protection and no goal beyond short-term survival.
Finally, of course, he could be a Townie with a “safe” role - that is, one which he can’t substantiate with the results of actions - and have made a judgement that he’s more likely to survive if he false-claims. If that’s the case then he’s at risk from both the Werewolves and the Vampire.
The other question that impinges on this is what is the nature of Nanook’s secret power? If it’s some sort of investigative power, then this false claim suddenly becomes a lot more viable.
In summary; if Nanook is not a Witch, then the level of risk from being targeted by other factions varies, depending on what role he actually holds. We can’t assume that if he survives the Night his claim is true. The chance of it being true goes up a great deal, but he could still be a Vampire.
