[QUOTE=peekercpa]
Never said anything about getting rid of ideas.
[/QUOTE]
So when you said “I know that bad ideas are not necessarily scum ideas but at this point what’s a poor townie to do but get rid of bad ideas,” you were not talking about getting rid of ideas? Do you even pay attention to what you’re saying?
[QUOTE=peekercpa]
And I have not said that when it comes down to the end that if there is not a better target that I won’t vote for DC.
[/QUOTE]
And I said in my vote post that if a better target arises that my vote could always be subject to change, but I just wanted to get it in on the record. You and I are doing the exact same thing here, only I’m 99% sure I’m voting for a scum, and 100% sure you are not. It seems remarkably inconsistent to call me on things that you are doing yourself.
What should our priorities be right now?
The Townspeople should always be aiming to lynch a nonTown faction. The question is, which target?
The fact that we can’t rely on the Vig every night means that we have to lynch Werewolves fairly regularly.
At present there are 22 players left in the game.
Assuming there are two Vampires still playing, that the Vampires and Wolves attack and kill different players each Night, that the Vigilante (if any) remains inactive and that the Necromancer raises a zombie each Night, the Undead win on Night 6. This is pretty improbable, frankly. We’ll have more time than that to track down and destroy their undead hides.
Killing Vampires slows down the loss of players, meaning that we’ll have more time to identify and lynch the remainder. Killing the Necromancer removes the threat of Undead until the late game.
The Wolves can’t help with Vampires, but if we can ID the Necromancer it might be in their interests to kill that player if the game would be lost at Night. The Cabal want the Undead out to help their win condition. They might want to block the Necromancer if they have no other way of slowing the Undead down, and can’t get the info out to the players without blowing their chance of winning.
Of the three, then, the Undead are the ones who could win quickest; thus, given a choice we should lynch one. But the game is not at a point where we lose if we don’t lynch Undead. We could take a lynch of any flavour of non-Town player Today without risking endgame in the near- to mid- future.
This assessment needs to be revisited as more information is revealed, obviously.
As I understand it there are two competing theories for toDay one of which is to test our detective’s claim or we can ignore that claim and hunt through the list that have no claims on the table to find an undead.
Both of these ideas have problems and benefits. If we lynch Digit then we either confirm CAIS or lynch him the next Day either way we have garunteed scum but this will kill discussion like the last couple of Days andhas the down side that has been pointed out of keeping us focused on wolfs. If the plan to find an undead works we will have eliminated scum from every group but this is not necessarily going to happen we could lynch town and even if we do find undead we won’t be able to link them to other scum.
I think the best plan is to confirm as many town as possible to this extent I’m going to
Vote Digit
that way in the next two Days we could have two confirmed town and we can potentially use the witches investigations to find the undead with out the possibilty of accidently lynching town.
I know Dran Bead already commented on this, but I can’t let it go by:
[QUOTE=peekercpa]
I know that bad ideas are not necessarily scum ideas but at this point what’s a poor townie to do but get rid of bad ideas.
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=Drain Bead]
The difference between you and me is that you want to get rid of ideas, and I want to get rid of scum.
[/QUOTE]
[QUOTE=peekercpa]
Never said anything about getting rid of ideas. Liar liar pants on fire.
[/QUOTE]
(bolding mine)
peeker, I really have no problem with your plan to hunt down Undead. They are absolutely a threat to the Town. But flailing around and contradicting yourself is not the way to go about it. You just accused someone of lying (and voted for them) when you are the one who seems to be lying. Not good.
FOS peekercpa
[QUOTE=peekercpa]
P.s. I did appreciate your help in the first game but in this game you are as unconfirmed as they come. Sorry dude, just the way Mafia goes I guess.
[/QUOTE]
Back at you, my man. 
[QUOTE=CatInASuit]
Ok, let’s put down all the assumptions we need to have for this situationto be true and see how it looks.
Problems with this:
a) This means the Vigilante did decide to kill on Night 1 with very little information and given that Roosh didn’t really start the game on Day 1, I really doubt this. After all, his vote at the end of Day 1 was still on Dotchan.
b) Both of you targeted Santo Rugger on Night 1. That in itself is unlikely, although stranger things have happened.
c) There were no Night Kills on Night 2. This is getting really unbelievable now.
Or
DiggitCamara is a likely Wolf who killed Roosh on Night 2.
[/QUOTE]
I’ve been pondering this and I’m beginning to run into a bit of a WIFOM issue. What I’m wondering is, given the convoluted chain of events above, why would Diggit claim this way? Why not just claim Vig and say “I killed Roosh because of X”? Half of me thinks the claim is slightly more believable due to its complexity. Of course, the other half of me thinks the first half is being an idiot.
Let’s do a pro/con thing - please feel free to help me out:
PROS OF KILLING DIGGIT
He’s been identified as a killer (probably Wolf)
His Side reveal will go a long way to confirm CIAS
CONS OF KILLING DIGGIT
There is a chance he really is a Warlock
He’s probably not Undead, which would be more beneficial to lynch
We will know if he’s lying anyway at Dawn toMorrow when **Roosh’s **role is revealed
Any other pros/cons?
[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
I’ve been pondering this and I’m beginning to run into a bit of a WIFOM issue. What I’m wondering is, given the convoluted chain of events above, why would Diggit claim this way? Why not just claim Vig and say “I killed Roosh because of X”? Half of me thinks the claim is slightly more believable due to its complexity. Of course, the other half of me thinks the first half is being an idiot.
[/QUOTE]
If **DiggitCamara ** is a Wolf and **Roosh ** had come up scum, I bet that would have been his call. He gets a scum kill, I confirm his Night Kill ability and he can be semi confirmed and out of the town’s main suspicion.
However, as **Roosh ** comes up Town, to claim Vigilante means that if he does not die tomorrow Night, he gets lynched.
Better to try and claim something that will let him survive as semi confirmed for a few Nights longer and get a few of the other wolves to suggest that we should be searching for the Necromancer instead of lynching him. Once someone survives a full Day/Night as an outed role, people seem to find it very difficult to want to lynch them.
The good news is that, it is very unlikely that **Diggit ** killed again last Night as it would blow his cover if I named him as a Killer again. Which likely means that one of the remaining Wolves killed again. I wonder which one it is and who they killed?
**Hockey Monkey ** or dotchan, probably one Wolf kill and one Vampire Kill. So peekercpa, which do you think is which?
[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
I know Dran Bead already commented on this, but I can’t let it go by:
(bolding mine)
peeker, I really have no problem with your plan to hunt down Undead. They are absolutely a threat to the Town. But flailing around and contradicting yourself is not the way to go about it. You just accused someone of lying (and voted for them) when you are the one who seems to be lying. Not good.
FOS peekercpa
Back at you, my man.
[/QUOTE]
Badda Bing.
Poorly worded on my behalf, agreed.
I am merely trying to catch scum. If you gals/guys think that a DC stretch is in the town’s best interest, Meh.
I don’t personally think that a DC lynch is the best thing to do and will go down swinging the entire way. And this is in no way taking away from DC’s potential wolfitude.
Just want to create a little chatter and damn the consequences.
At least I am trying, FCS.
Considering moving my vote back to Hal since DB is now apparently engaged.
It takes a vote to get some participation???
Come on SF vote me and let’s truly let the scum daddys coast under the radar for another fucking cycle.
Sheep doodle, we are well and truly doomed if we think that confirmed scum day lynches are going to save our ass.
I’ve been thinking over the last couple of days, on and off, about the progress of the kills in this game.
Night 1
We had three kills; Brewha, NaturalBlondChap and Santo Rugger.
Broadly speaking there were three hypotheses advanced to explain the deaths.
There were two Vampires.
The Cabal had a bonus Nightkill, and used it.
A Vig got trigger-happy.
All three have (to my mind) flaws. Two Vampires raises the spectre of one of them putting the Necromancer to the tooth, or attacking each other; the Cabal need to kill the Witches (or two of them anyway), and should hold it until they have ID’d a Witch with fair certainty that he’s unprotected; and a trigger-happy Vig has a good chance on suiciding Night 3.
If, on the other hand, the Werewolves had the Tough Guy power instead of the Cabal, they might well use it Night 1, and shouldn’t be too worried about not hitting a vital target, because every player down that isn’t one of them is a step towards their win condition.
Developments.
Evidence appeared in Day 2 that the killer of NBC was pedescribe (later revealed to be a Werewolf). Whether Storyteller0910 was telling the truth about being attacked and using his Magician’s powers to deflect the attack, or whether Storyteller is using his famous MO of bussing a fellow scum for townie cred, pedescribe killed NBC. (That this was a setup was hypothesised on Day 2. It assumes Storyteller is the Omega Wolf. Having Wolf-pede kill NBC makes sense if it’s a setup because it ensures a Detective investigating NBC’s death finds information consistent with Storyteller’s claim.)
Nanook of the North Shore has claimed Witch, and alleges Storyteller is Town-aligned.
CIAS claims that Brewha was killed by a Vampire. In Day 3, Boozahol Squid P.I. claimed to be that Vampire, after Nanook accused BS PI of being a Werewolf. BS PI has already been caught out in one lie – he falsely claimed he knew pedescribe was a Vampire, and pede has been revealed as a Wolf. That doesn’t tell us much; we expect non-Townies to lie, and if he was a Townsman sacrificing himself his goal would be to ensure he was lynched.
BS PI claimed he was motivated by sowing confusion among his faction’s enemies with his farewell claim. I find that a fairly reasonable motive. His death will give us a chance to test the investigative claim Nanook has made, so I’m content to put it aside for Today.
This post has grown too long; it’s over 1½ pages of A4 right now. So in the interests of comprehension, I’m going to break it into two. More in my next post.
This post is a continuation of the discussion in the last post. Having just finished discussing Night 1, we take up with the deaths of Night 2.
Night 2
Here we have a single death. Some possible reasons for only one kill have been advanced.
Roleblocking. (It’s the Cabal’s schtick).
A Vampire forgetting to send in the hit by the deadline.
A Vampire attacking a Vicar.
Werewolves arguing among themselves and the Alpha Wolf not making a decision.
One killer hitting the Witch-protected player.
Two (or more) killers hitting Roosh.
This argues against three independent killers, since two of these have to happen at once if there are three killing roles. Still, stranger things have happened so we can’t rule it out. (Hal Briston’s experience in Night One of Firefly Mafia comes to mind.)
Developments.
DiggitCamara was accused of being Roosh’s killer by CatInASuit. Diggit admitted responsibility but claimed the death arose from his Warlock’s curse. This implies that Roosh was a Vigilante who killed on Night 1.
Lynching DiggitCamara Tonight won’t tell us anything about CatInASuit, unfortunately. CIAS’s claimed role is that he finds out the name of the player who killed a specific dead player; and Diggit does not deny he killed Roosh. He just claims to be Town aligned, and CIAS can’t tell us anything about faction allegiance on the part of the killer.
Instead we have to look at the likelihood of the claim. For this to be the only kill of the Night, the Werewolves and Vampires would all have had to fail of their kill. This is, if correct, yet another argument against there being three regular killers.
Further, I suspect that if any killing role targeted Roosh then they, and not the Warlock, would have carried out the kill (since Pleo’s tie-break rules is “the last submitted instruction carries out the kill.”)
The hypothesis that Diggit is a Werewolf (and the designated Night Two killer) is a lot simpler and easier to believe.
= = = = =
Night 3
The two kills could have been Wolf and Vampire action. Alternatives include a Vigilante action (including the possibility of a Vig suicide after discovering their Night 1 kill was Town-aligned) or a Toughguy power employed to cause us confusion. Any other hypotheses?
At this point, I’m inclining towards not believing Diggit’s claim, and have him marked as a probable Werewolf. Given that, and given my earlier conclusion that Werewolves make a reasonable lynch Today, a vote is correct.
Vote DiggitCamara.
If an Undead is exposed, I’ll switch my vote.
[QUOTE=CatInASuit]
If **DiggitCamara ** is a Wolf and **Roosh ** had come up scum, I bet that would have been his call. He gets a scum kill, I confirm his Night Kill ability and he can be semi confirmed and out of the town’s main suspicion.
However, as **Roosh ** comes up Town, to claim Vigilante means that if he does not die tomorrow Night, he gets lynched.
Better to try and claim something that will let him survive as semi confirmed for a few Nights longer and get a few of the other wolves to suggest that we should be searching for the Necromancer instead of lynching him. Once someone survives a full Day/Night as an outed role, people seem to find it very difficult to want to lynch them.
[/QUOTE]
But what I keep coming back to is that at Dawn toMorrow, we’ll get Roosh’s Role and know whether he was the Vig or not, so this claim gets a Scum Diggit even less time than if he claimed Vig, right?
[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
But what I keep coming back to is that at Dawn toMorrow, we’ll get Roosh’s Role and know whether he was the Vig or not, so this claim gets a Scum Diggit even less time than if he claimed Vig, right?
[/QUOTE]
By my reckoning, we’d lynch him on Day 5 either way.
With this claim he doesn’t have to explain away why he’s still alive. He’d have to invoke either Witch protection or being roleblocked by the Cabal (in the latter case the claim would be they done it to provoke the Town into spending a lynch on a Townie) to explain surviving the Night.
Would either sound really believable?
And MHaye your logic was spot on. I don’t like your conclusion but what the hey since I am already on record for voting DC if we as a group can’t decide on an alternative.
I still think that our Nec is someone under the radar and we know it can’t be DC. Therefore I humbly suggest that we go for someone else. All the while keeping DC in our back pocket. He can’t be a vamp, if he’s vig then he’s toast and if he’s fur ladened then that group will be there manana anyways.
[QUOTE=MHaye]
By my reckoning, we’d lynch him on Day 5 either way.
With this claim he doesn’t have to explain away why he’s still alive. He’d have to invoke either Witch protection or being roleblocked by the Cabal (in the latter case the claim would be they done it to provoke the Town into spending a lynch on a Townie) to explain surviving the Night.
Would either sound really believable?
[/QUOTE]
What?!?
C’mon, by toMorrow you all will know Roosh was the Vig… and you still plan to lynch me even by toMorrow?
There is Nanook’s supposed “Witch” status, which was put into question by Dio. Why hasn’t anybody looked at his current absence?
Right now, I had been waiting for his reappearance and/or announcement.
Since he has vanished:
vote Nanook
I agree that Nanook needs to get themself in here pronto. If thy really are a witch we need the info, and they need to place a vote.
Right, pending further results and to prevent modkill
vote DiggitCamara
Until he shows up to giv more info, and to make sure I am not mod killed
vote Nanook
Because I’m more suspicious of him than of Nanook, and to duck modkill:
Vote DiggitCamara
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
What?!?
C’mon, by toMorrow you all will know Roosh was the Vig… and you still plan to lynch me even by toMorrow?
[/quote]
Sorry I was a bit opaque there. I switched tracks in the middle of the paragraph.
The first sentence of the paragraph is talking about you having claimed Warlock instead of Vig. The rest of the paragraph is about the consequences to you if you had claimed Vig.
If you had claimed the latter and then turned up living on Day 5 that would be prima facie evidence that you had falsely claimed. You would need to explain why you survived your attempted suicide for killing someone revealed by the Mod as a Townsperson. You don’t have that explanation to make if you are a Warlock.
My vote was placed, primarily, because I find it difficult to believe that on Night 2 the Wolves didn’t kill and the Vampire(s) didn’t kill. I’ve suggested some possible reasons why kills were missed, but none of them are very likely individually, so requring two or three to happen is extremely unlikely. It’s so much easier to believe that you are a Werewolf than that all the killing roles failed to kill; especially if the two Vampire hypothesis is correct.
(Post bleached for avoidance of confusion)
I haven’t looked into his absence because I wasn’t worried by a weekend absence. American players tend to post from work more than from home.
Nanook alleges BS PI was a Werewolf. BS PI claimed Vampire. So, when his role is revealed at Dusk, we’ll have evidence either backing or disproving Nanook’s claim.
If Nanook is right, then BS PI will lie about anything. If, on the other hand, BS PI was telling the truth about his faction, we can’t put much stock in his Vampire claim. Personally, the only statement he made that I trust is that he was motivated by sowing chaos - because I’d try the same thing.
If Nanook is wrong about BS PIs allegiance, though, who would know? Boozy himself, the real Witches (because the only possible false reading the Witches can get is on the Omega Wolf, who doesn’t read “Werewolf,”) and the Werewolves.
Voting for the Witch because I didn’t post over the weekend? Jeez people, one would think you’d notice by now that I almost never post weekends.
Continuing the theme of attempting to set up the end game, Koldanar was investigated. He came back town.
Diggit claims Warlock eh? My first intinct is to say duh, of course you’d claim something like that. On the other hand, your claim requires that Roosh be a Vig, which we will find out Tomorrow. If he’s not a Vig, then you’re lying and are clearly a Wolf. In that situation, we can lynch you just as easily Tomorrow as Today. The only consideration is whether or not the Day delay will make a difference. Since Wolves are, for the most part, interchangable, I don’t see how it would. If Roosh comes up Vig, it doesn’t mean you are telling the truth, the claim would have to be re-evaluated with that in mind. On the third hand, you were the first to freak out and vote for me for “vanishing”, which certainly strikes me as a desperate attempt by a Wolf to try and drive the discussion away from their own furry self.
I’ll have to think on this a little more and will be back later with a vote.