There’s no point in voting for Nanook now as we’ll get further evidence on him, pro or con, soon.
I still feel we should keep Diggit in our pockets and hunt Undead. I agree with peekerpa that they might be found amongst the lurkers. Just to throw something out there and stimulate the discussion, I’m going to
vote hawkeyepop
I mean, seriously, did you guys even know he was playing? Is he under the radar or is he dead?
OK, given that Nanook has now posted, & given that Diggit may be telling the truth, and we will get info on that soon anyway, I am willing to prssure an active lurker (active in that they are getting their daily vote in).
**unvote Nanook
vote hawkeyepop**
So I’m curious here Nanook - What was the motivation for my investigation last night?
I had almost forgot that Hawkeyeop was playing. A little pressure on him seems like a decent play right now, at least while I continue to ruminate on Diggit’s claim and while we wait to hear Nanook’s “endgame” logic on the witch’s probing of Koldanar. Hopefully Nanook won’t make us wait as long for his follow up.
Vote Hawkeyeop
I don’t know why there were so few kills that Night, but I’m not completely surprised.
Like storyteller(?) said, the party with the most interest to get CatInASuit out of the way, if we lend credence to his claim, would be the wolves. And, if we believe ex-Dio’s claim that he wasn’t a wolf, the witches would be able to use their protecting power on the Cat, blocking that kill attempt.
And, again believing ex-Dio’s words, the (a?) vampire had missed his Nighttime duties. That would only leave a possible third kill (by the Vig? dunno). But, again, it isn’t unlikely that a Vig who’d killed one Night would skip the next, isn’t it?
Seriously? Do I have to explain this every single Day? It’s the exact same reason as every other investigation so far. It seems right now that you are unlikely to die in the near future, so therefore are very valuable as a confirmed townie in the end game. Just like every single other investigation so far. And this is the last time I’m answering this question, since it’s the same answer to the same question every time.
I’m not dead… just resting.
Sorry, I got behind early in this game, and have never really been able to catch up. I am having trouble figuring out everything that is going on here. If everyone would just stop talking for a week…
No? Oh well. I’ll get some (probably jumbled thoughts) in today.
Question first as I can’t access the rules from work. Is the Vig’s night kill mandatory?
no, that would b harsh as if they jit town they ave to suicide. Vig kill is completely discretional.
Are there seriously three lynch-the-lurker votes sitting on hawkeyeop right now? When I first looked at the page I assumed Nanook came back with a scum reading on hawk, because how else would he have piled up so many votes so quickly. Gah.
[color=blue]vote Cookies**
for being the third voter on hawkeyeop. And then,
[color=red]unvote Cookies**
Because the third vote is a silly reason to vote for someone.
Now to reread, and comment as I go.
(PS - like Nanook, I don’t post much, or at all, over the weekends. The fact that our Day begins on a Friday means that some of us are going to be less participatory for the first third or so of the Day. It seems like a bad idea to get hysterical about this every time it happens).
Uh, the above should be:
vote Cookies
for being the third voter on hawkeyeop. And then,
unvote Cookies
Because the third vote is a silly reason to vote for someone.
This strikes me as rather snippy/defensive from someone for whom we as yet have no concrete reason to trust.
He showed up and posted though, didn’t he?
Unvote Hawkeyeop
Well, we basically did quit talking for the last week with everything being tied up so neatly for us.
I’ve been a Werewolf; furthermore I was caught red-handed (red-handed? Red in tooth and claw, more like) by the Detective. I totally agree that the Werewolves want the Detective dead.
If Nanook is a Witch then it’s almost a foregone conclusion that the Witches are protecting him; if, on the other hand, Nanook is lying then I suppose the Witches protection could be anywhere. (Except maybe Nanook, since they’d know he was lying and why protect a liar?)
Firstly, even if we assume Dio was telling the truth about being a Vampire, that says nothing about the truth or falsity of other statements. He’d mix truth and falsehood, in ways that were absolutely uncheckable. For all we know he took a potshot at someone who turned out to be the Vicar, or the actual beneficiary of the Witch protection. We do not know, and cannot find out with any mechanism found in the rules, the truth or falsity of that particular statement. Of course, that doesn’t preclude a secret power doing so. I just doubt there is one. As I said, the only statement I accept at face value is the one where he said he wanted to confuse people.
Secondly, regarding the Vig suicide, the Vig player might not have understood what would happen until Day 2, and decided to freeze up Night 2 in the hope that someone would save them from their folly.
No kidding! Nanook, I thought you were a Witch, not a Bitch 
So it is certainly possible the Vig hasn’t killed at all yet.
I don’t find much reason to doubt Nanook’s claim. If he wasn’t a witch, I think the witches would have been able to take care of the problem some way on their own. Furthermore, it is a very dangerous claim to make, even for the cabal. He would have alerted the witches to his role, and still had two other factions after him. So I’m inclined to believe his claims.
Alternatively, I do not believe Roosh, as a Vig, would take out Santo day one. While, we have a history of trigger happy scums, killing Santo seems way to0 random to be from a pro-town motive. I would think that Roosh would have left some hint as to his motive if he was a Vig.
If we had a good alternate I’d be inclined to wait a day, but I don’t see one. So I’d rather have another day to gather information for our next lynch target, then have certainly regarding Diggit. I feel comfortable
**voting Diggit **
I also think think the town is focusing too much on what is the best scum to kill. While, killing some scum is better then killing others, it is rarely a good idea to avoid killing a certain scum in order to have a partial chance at killing a different scum. If we can completely take out one scum group early, it will certainly help our focus in the end game.
OK, re-read completed. Responses and quoting and all that good stuff will follow, but first, general impressions on our three major living claimants.
CatinaSuit: My suspicion of CiaS has been continual; if he is really the Detective I’m sure he will forgive me a little skepticism. His behavior yesterDay / last Night gave me another cause to worry. Specifically, his behavior precisely matched my own behavior in Cecilvania, when I was false-claiming Detective. In that game, there was the specter of a Detective being role-blocked by a Scum Role-Blocker (an Alchemist). When I false claimed, I made sure to mention the possible outcome that I’d receive no result - that I’d be role-blocked. I emphasized it carefully, just as CiaS emphasized the possibility that he might receive no result on Roosh.
Like CiaS, I received extra suspicion for that disclaimer; I was accused of setting up an alibi for myself, so I could claim to have received no result. That was intentional on my part. My hope was that everyone would get it worked up in their minds - “If he claims to have been blocked by the Alchemist, I’m voting for him” - so that when I came back with a Town result instead, those people were suddenly less inclined to vote for me even though my result was fake.
Compare to CiaS. He raised the specter of a result that would have been viewed as suspicious, then gave a real result. It’s not probitive, just suggestive.
But of course, I am undermined by his outing of Diggit as a killer, and Diggit’s confirmation of same. I think it’s all-but certain that Diggit killed Roosh, given the way this played out. But that doesn’t really give us much on the truth or falsity of Cat’s claim - Cat could still be a Wolf along with Diggit, scum who got spectacularly lucky, or even part of a scum faction with a hidden investigative power.
What is suggestive, though, is the absence of a Detective counterclaim. I’ve gone over this a bunch of times in my head, and I just don’t see how the inclusion of two Detectives could be fair to the Wolves no matter the configuration. If Cat is lying, then a real Detective is almost surely out there, and by now, you’d think he or she would have enough to report to make a counterclaim.
Thus, in the absence of a counter, I reluctantly accept Cat’s claim as true pending further reveals.
Which brings us to Diggit. I think it’s about 80% likely that Diggit is lying, and is scum. The confluence of events required for this to be so - notably, that a Vigilante Roosh decided to kill on Night One, and targeted an under-the-radar player on whom he couldn’t possibly have much information, and that Diggit decided to enchant Santo - is quite unlikely.
This is a great false claim for Diggit, because if he’s a Wolf, it buys him an extra Night. Sure, he’ll die toMorrow if Roosh isn’t a Vig - he might even die toNight, because if there’s a pro-Town Vig out there who is not Roosh, Diggit is surely a good target for you toNight - but if we don’t lynch him toDay, he can kill for the Wolves toNight either way, and thus confound our Detective toMorrow if the number of kills is small.
All the same, I don’t think we should lynch him toDay. 80% likely that he’s lying means 20% likely that he’s telling the truth, and since we will gain more information toMorrow about this, it’s not worth using our lynch here. We know where he is, and he’s not going anywhere.
Although: bear in mind that Diggit could be lying even if Roosh is revealed to be a Vigilante. The Scum could have happened upon Roosh’s alignment somehow, or Diggit could have made an educated guess.
Finally, Nanook. The side of Boozahol, which should be revealed at Dusk, will give us a nice head start on interpreting Nanook’s alignment. So I’m not going to speculate on Nanook just yet.
I will say this: I am increasingly suspicious of all those who are calling aggressively for Nanook to outline every detail of his (and, by extention, the Witches) thought process regarding who to investigate. If Nanook is lying, then that will out eventually, and we’ll lynch him. The sort of evidence that will eventually come out will be indisputable - a dead Witch that Nanook doesn’t name as such, a proven Witch who disputes his claim, or a demonstrably false investigation result - such that we’re never going to lynch him without that evidence, and we’re never going to NOT lynch him if it comes.
Accordingly, I don’t see any pro-Town value is dissecting his investigation choices. Sure, we might be able to spot places where his actions differ from the ones we’d have chosen, but those aren’t evidence of anything other than different thought processes. Per the above, if we get one of those definitive pieces of evidence, analysis of investigation choices won’t be of value anyway, because it’ll be an auto-lynch.
On the other hand, IF Nanook is telling the truth, discussion of the Witch investigative choices (beyond actually revealing what they are and what their results are) DOES benefit the scum, in two ways:
It provides insight into the Witch thinking process, which allows the scum manipulative opportunities; and
It provides opportunities for additional Witches, who understand the thought process behind their decisions, to expose themselves to entities who would like to see them dead.
So my next course of action is going to be to look very closely at those who are ruthlessly trying to ferret out reasoning behind investigative choices described by Nanook. Whether or not he turns out to be a Witch, those folks are behaving in a manner much more likely to benefit Scum than Town… and that’s of definite interest.
Still playing catchup on everything because of the start of my game offsite. That should calm down very soon though. In the mean time:
vote ShadowFacts
I have a few reasons, I will get to them as soon as I can. I don’t think we should be taking down Diggit right yet when we will have some sort of confirmation of his role (one way or the other) coming up very shortly.
More later as I finish getting really caught up and not faux caught up.
Well, things just got more complicated for me: I’ve found out that I’ll be on a business trip all of next week and some of the next. I expect to have internet access at the hotels I’ll be staying in, but my response to PMs and vote counting will be slow. We’ll keep the same fixed schedule, but the results of Dawn and Dusk may be delayed.
Carry on…
Rather than risk a mod kill, I’m going to go ahead and place a vote on diggit for now, and remove it. Why? I’m not sure we should just go for the easy target, with many other unknowns still out there. We still get RoOsh information shortly, as well as Nanook information. Two big things coming…if we get rid of Diggit now, the RoOsh info only tells us what we did a little early.
vote diggit
unvote diggit
I still do suspect him however, as the events that would actually mean he’s telling the truth seem to be a fairly complicated (though not impossible, admittedly) sequence of events. Occam’s razor and all that.