Too many Days in a row where the lynch was a foregone conclusion. There just isn’t any record to examine at this point. I have time again now that the offboard game is running, I just don’t have any ideas.
I want to update my thinking of yesterday with the new information we have today.
Firstly, the relative threat posed by the three anti-Town factions. I looked at this Yesterday in [post=10021224]post 1683[/post]. Things have changed a bit since then.
- Werewolves.
The Werewolves have lost one player that we know of (pedescribe) and are on their way to losing another (Hal – yes, I know he denies it, but then he would, wouldn’t he?) Additionally, looking at the accusations and speculations, it is possible that two more Werewolves are among the unidentified dead; Diggitcamara and Fluiddriud. If they are both Werewolves (which we’ll find out fairly soon) then the Wolves have been hard hit. They may possibly be down to one or two players.
(NB. Fluiddruid has been fingered as the Alpha Wolf. It’s worth remembering, though, that this is a role that van be passed on; in the event of the Alpha Wolf’s death, the most senior of the remaining Wolves assumes the role. In the last game, that would have included the secret power, if it had not already been used. So we can’t afford to assume that the Werewolves have lost the use of their secret power just because the Alpha Wolf has turned up dead.)
The Werewolves can be in any sort of state from reeling to fairly solid, depending on the factions of the unrevealed Dead.
-
Undead
We know that two Undead are dead; BS PI and Dotchan. Since the Undead are a very small faction, probably three in number, they are crippled. It’s very likely that BS PI was a Vampire, since there must have been a Necromancer been alive on Night Three to zombify him. Dotchan’s role is less certain; such pointers as we have suggest that she was the Necromancer. (Vampires are resistant to Nightkills, thus if Dotchan was a Vampire, the existence of a Vig is demonstrated, there was no zombie made on Night 4, and four deaths.) It’s certainly possible that the necromancer is still in game, but not likely. Personally I’m working on the assumption that the last remaining Undead is a vampire for now. We should know by the dawn of Day Six. -
Cabal
Nanook has claimed that he was the last Cabalist, that the Cabal’s secret power has been practically unusable since the death of NaturalBornChap back on Day 1, and that the Cabal are essentially finished.
Does anybody actually believe this?
The biggest problem with the Cabal in game 1 was its lack of resilience. The faction was small enough that it needed to retain its members – a problem with two groups of hungry monsters running around killing at Night. An extra player, or even two, would give it the sort of depth it needed to recover from the sort of early hit Storyteller inflicted on them.
Additionally, Nanook claimed the secret power required the agreement of two living Cabalists. I don’t see Pleo giving the Cabal such a restriction on the power without increasing the faction size to ensure it gets a chance to use it.
Sorry, I don’t buy either statement. I reckon that there are one or two more Cabalists hiding out in the living populace,waiting their chance to strike.
Question for discussion. Is it now the right time to ask all the players who haven’t yet roleclaimed to do so?
And I agree with MHaye.
I find that the idea of the Cabal being so undergunned is not consistent with the even chances that were supposedly part of this game’s set up.
Additionally, the abscence of a zombie sure makes it feel that the Nec bit it. I know in my blessing I asked for a hard six but just don’t think I could be that lucky. Stranger things have happened, however.
And I’ll go out on a limb with the role claim idea, as well.
Back in a sec.
And the second is going to be a while.
The missus just called and said peekercpadaughternumberthree To be eventually known as the second coming of Mia Hamm in a couple more years wants dinner out.
Oh well, I’ll try to get my other thoughts in before bed time or in the middle of the night performing the prostrate weekened middle of the night bathroom visit.
And I would say that I am sorry, but am not. Great dinner with family and ran across some friends that I had literally not seen in ten plus years.
I’ve been pushing for a non conventional lynch for a couple of days. I understand that cruise control is a very safe zone. I also believe that in the absence of cross kills during the night that no matter how good town is during the Day that we would still lose. I am going to support a Hal lynch because I believe that there was some crossfire recently.
However, at some point unless or detecs keep picking up appropriate targets and the scum factions help us out then eventually we are going to go after an unknown.
And I believe that a mass role claim would establish a base line when this eventuallity occurs.
Meh, my two cents.
And one other point. I still am not adverse to a lynch/prod the lurker strategy. In the off board game I got tooled because I posted a lot and really did not have a clue what was going on. Just merely tried to stimulate any type of discussion. Course the fact that a Mod actually voted for me probably was not helpful. Guess I should just keep my mouth shut and let scum girls and boys fly under the radar.
Ok, there’s a dime.
I’m fine with a mass claim from those of us who have not done so yet, but I have my doubts as to whether or not we’ll get consensus to do so toDay, and I’d rather not wander out on that limb unless the others are all toeing the same line.
So here’s a quick point:
The above is about the twentieth time you’ve made a post with pre-emptive comments assuming criticism of your ideas. “I’m sure I’ll be lynched for this,” you say. “Guess I should just keep my mouth shut,” you say. “Oh why oh why will no one listen to my wisdom, I’m wasting my time,” you say.
Here’s the thing:
That’s the sort of thing I did all the time as scum. It’s really slick to anticipate the criticism that way. When you say, “I know I’m going to get lynched for this,” it takes the wind out of the sails of anyone who might actually look closely at you. It puts anyone who’d look at what you’re saying and doing automatically on the defensive, feeling like they’re being predictable and stupid.
It may not mean much, or anything at all. It may not be something you’re doing intentionally. But it’s something you’ve been doing so consistently, throughout the game, that it’s put my eye on you - and not for your controversial ideas, either.
For the record, I don’t see much advantage accruing from mass claim at this time. One Witch is dead, another is probably revealed; revealing the third means our Witches’ ability to provide value will be short-lived. When and if we run into a situation where a lynch is not self-evident, though, I’m happy to revisit the question.
Vote Hal Briston
Don’t really have much else to add. Heh.
we seem to have hit all the scum factions. That being the case, why role claim today? we have a solid lynch set up, so all we would be doing is setting up night targets to be killed. Let’s see where we stand tomorrow.
It looks like I’ll be on a plane when Dusk comes. Night begins on schedule, even if I don’t post, so feel free to carry on. I’ll post results when I get a chance.
There’s still a few who haven’t voted. Avoid the mod-kill!
Oh, right! I forgot to register my vote:
Vote Hal Briston
Crap…I SWORE in my last post I did this.
vote Hal.
This is random, but worth noting out loud.
If every pro-Town role other than Witches and Freemasons is in the game exactly once…
And if there are exactly three Witches…
And exactly three Freemasons…
And if there are three Undead…
Eight Wolves…
And Five Cabalists…
That would be 31 players, unless I have miscounted. Interesting point, I think, and one worth considering as we go forward.
I’m not sure there is a reason to assume the freemason, wolf or cabal count is 3, 8 or 5. Those 16 players could be scrambled a couple of different way to still get to 31. This is still assuming that every role is only there once and where it would be equally likely that some of the lower profile roles like Scotsman could easily be a multiple with out throwing out game balance.
Thanks for trying to stimulate conversation, we surely need it, but I don’t think we can make any reliable assumptions about the game make up at this point.
I personally think it’s likely that the Town is still the single largest faction; thus I’d speculate on at least four Masons (which, after all, Conspiracy 1 did have). Dock one from the Werewolves. Then you have a 16/15 split.
This sort of consideration needs to go alongside the state-of-the-factions analysis I did in [post=10048526[/post]. I do have my own speculations, which differ slightly from yours.
I’m just a little worried about another modkill, as Zsofia hadn’t been online since before the weekend.
Le sigh.
The link in my last post should be to [post=10048526]post 1902[/post].
Sorry.
Three minutes left, correct? Perfect…not nearly enough time to change your collective mistake. Thanks for playing along, suckers. <evil smiley>
Team, a careful reread of the day shows some power roles who have inadvertently made themselves out quite clearly for what they are. Chow time.
<chuckle>
Man, I love all these “you’re playing right into our hands” posts. I’m absolutely sure getting yourself whacked was part of the master plan all along, but we’ll muddle through somehow.
Well at least we don’t need to wait for his side to be revealed to know he is a wolf after all.
Well, I’m pretty certain that I won’t make it through tonight. Zombie Squid, your finest, without the brains, please! And keep them coming.