:mad: It was a disaster. What with claim after claim. :mad:
Especially the one I inadvertently made. 
Vote Darth Sensitive
Nightkill Millit
Exactly my first thought when I read it!
I still don’t understand the explanation for not protecting Pede.
First we have:
Then:
This tells us you thought scum might target someone else. Then why not protect them? It wasn’t as if it was a choice between protecting Pede or protecting noone.
There are good reasons to be suspicious of MHaye. Without any corroborating evidence (such as a night with no kills, or a shotgunned scum), the only strong argument in his favour is the PM. It looks pretty good. It’s got the genre references, the humour, the style. But if he is scum, then he either faked it from scratch, or he edited his real one.
I find it unlikely that anyone would try to write a fake PM from scratch. As well as the problem of imitating story’s style, it would require a fair bit of imagination to come up with a genre suitable role and a plausible suite of powers. So if MHaye is scum, it’s likely that we’re looking at an edited PM. Textual analysis is never going to give definitive proof of course, but nevertheless:
I don’t like the use of the word “film” in MHaye’s PM. (“the kids who are the heroes of the story encounter you early in the film”) It’s a Briticism. Americans say “movie”. As indeed, Story did in the vanilla PMs, NAF’sand Cookies. Coupled with the fact that it took 18 minutes for MHaye to “go and get his PM” (open PM>Copy>Paste>Post) I’m a little suspicious about the PM.
As I say, however, the PM is really the only thing MHaye’s got going for him. Counting against him are:
- Failure to protect NAF and
- Equivocation over pede.
To start with the second, one of the clearest signs that someone is lying is when they make up multiple excuses. (“Sorry I’m late, there was terrible traffic. And my mother rang just as I was leaving the house. And I thought we said 3.30. And my babysitter cancelled.”) So far, MHaye’s justifications for not protecting pede on Night One are:
- I thought the doc would do it
- I thought a Vig might attack him
It’s one excuse too many. Even if it made sense to be worried about a Vig attacking a mason, which it doesn’t, one reason would be enough.
The failure to protect NAF is also interesting. Apparently, a town power role even more important than NAF has outed themselves (at least to MHaye), but he’s not saying who. If you’re town, MHaye, all I can say to that is: now that you’ve told scum there’s something to look for, there’s a good chance that the group working together will spot what you did, even if they haven’t already. So if things are looking bad for you towards Dusk, you’d better spill so the doc can protect Mr or Ms X. On the other hand, this is exactly what a false-claiming scum would have to say. There’s no better known candidate for protection than NAF, who blatantly wasn’t protected. So what better strategy than to claim a magic-bag piece of knowledge as your justification, and avoid the necessity for making sense by cloaking your motives in pro-town secrecy?
It just doesn’t hang together:
unvote brewha
vote MHaye
I might have taken him out too, though I would probably have taken you out first. 
That said the suspicious part isn’t that he chose to protect Naf Day 2. Rather it is his not protecting Naf Day 4. Mhaye once Day 6 starts I’m going want to know exactly who you protected Day 4 and why.
We need to work on this voting as a block thing. It kind of fell apart at the end there. I would like to see the block decide who to vote for with at least 24 hours left in the Day, and then not change votes without a group decision.
Ped, to be fair, we have seen that the Vig doesn’t always make the best choices in the world. (Hi pleo! :p) That said, not protecting Naf last Night doesn’t make any sense, Mhaye’s magic bag of some other super secret hidden role notwithstanding. At this stage of the game, I can’t imagine a more important role than a pseudo-cop that can confirm Townies, since they’re the most important thing in the end game.
Amrussell, I’m not sure I agree with your analysis of the PM. If you posit that it’s an edited one, are you assuming he faked the powers or do you feel that they are real? I can’t imagine a scum being given those powers. They just don’t fit with a scum role in any way. Why would a scum want to scare off an attacker at Night? Yes, I realize we had 2 SKs, but SKs are generally more pro-scum than pro-town, since by odds alone they’re more likely to kill Town than scum. I agree with you in a sense that I feel he edited his real PM, but I just don’t think that the points you bring up are things we should be focusing on.
In the end, I think he is more likely to be scum than not, and that is where I shall be voting for the time being.
vote Mhaye
The only note I want to place here is that the other doctor also didn’t choose to protect NAF last Night. There is a chance that there isn’t another doctor and Blaster Master lied, but I doubt that.
I agree with this (though I assume you meant protected Night Four) and bolded the part the make sure MHaye waits until the Night is over (if MHaye is telling the truth he (most likely) can’t be Night killed and he’ll be protecting this critical person Tonignt again).
His reasoning about his initial alleged protection of NAF is suspicious to me too.
Oh, I’m sure the powers are faked or at least tweaked. But make no mistake, this is the toughest aspect of the case against MHaye - what don’t we believe about his PM? The easiest fake is just to change your side to Town, but I’d be amazed if that didn’t leave the colour and powers as incongruous. So MHaye has either invented a whole new PM, complete with convincing colour and powers; or he’s edited the colour and kept the powers more or less intact; or he’s edited the colour and changed the powers significantly/entirely.
Could the scum have their own protector? With two known SK and a possible Vig it would make a certain amount of sense but I don’t know enough about game design to have an informed opinion on that. If not, then we’re left with MHaye making up powers from whole cloth.
Like I say, I think he’s scum. But I’d be more certain of that if I could nail down what’s wrong with his PM.
This logic bugs me, because it is wrong . Just because there are more townies than scum doesn’t mean a random death is worse for the town. Let us say there were 15 townies, 5 scum, and 1 SK So there would be a 75% chance of a townie death, and a 25% chance of a scum death. However, a town death would only represent 6.67% of the remaining townies, while a scum death would represent 20% of remaining scum. Clearly a scum death would be much more devastating to their respective side.
Let us look at another way. A vanilla townie is worth 1 is JSexton’s system. A vanilla scum is worth 4.5. An average townie is maybe worth 2. An average scum is perhaps worth 6. The are just guesses, no way to know how much power Story added to this game.
So if everyone was vanilla
.75 *1 vs .25 * 4.5
.75 vs 1.125
A scum death would be more harmful than a town death.
For my estimates averages
75 * 2 vs .25 * 6
1.5 vs 1.5
They would be equal. Given a balanced game this equation should always come out at about equal for the beginning the game. After that it depends on which side lost the more powerful roles. How many are left of each side should have little bearing on this answer.
Except there is one additional factor. Serial Killers will probably not take out confirmed townies. Partially, because they don’t want to double up with scum, but mostly they want to be able to claim Vig if they are under suspicion. At least not until towards the end of the game when the lack of unknowns becomes a problem. Thus, the equation tilts more towards town than the equations above would indicate. Serial killers are at least as damaging to scum as town, and probably more so.
The key here is to remember that scum and town deaths aren’t equal. Even the most powerful townie is probably less important to town than a vanilla scum is to scum. One for one sacrifices are almost always good for town, and bad for scum. So if one can take out a scum, even if it results in their death, one should likely take that opportunity.
I’m much more comfortable with the scrutiny being applied to Mhaye now, so I’m going to beat the bushes for a bit.
JSexton has dropped off the face of the game toDay, by my reckoning.
amrussel kinda looks like he’s fishing for clues as to “how to write a better fake PM than Mhaye”.
And I still think some of brewha’s statements around the end of the Day yesterday are quite fishy.
And where the hell is Rapier?
Boldings mine
First you seem to believe we have a doc in the game - and therefore you would like MHaye to show us what’s in his magic bag.
But then you point out that NAF wasn’t protected. So why do you think we have a doc and why do you think this doc didn’t protect NAF?
Since it didn’t work that well last time 
Let’s try it this way!
Also Pede you said you can steal someone else’s vote right? Let’s add it to the block.
I don’t remember seeing anything about vote-stealing…
I think we have a doc because **Blaster **tried to kill **pede **on Night One and failed, due to some sort of protective force. Even if we believe MHaye, he admits it wasn’t him.
I don’t know why the doc didn’t protect NAF. Maybe you’re right, and we no longer have that protection for some reason. Maybe it was Diggit or Thing Fish, or a one-time power.
But if it’s possible for MHaye to read the game posts and deduce the existence and identity of a town power role more vital to our interests than NAF’s, then it’s possible for a group of scum to do the same. In which case, then it’s in town’s interests for any protective role we do have to know who to protect. Relying on three motivated scum to be collectively dumber than MHaye isn’t (IMHO) the smart move.
But my point is really that I don’t believe MHaye’s claimed percipience. I would be astonished if he were able to say “X has this power” and be right. I think it’s much more likely that he’s making up a poor excuse for not apparently protecting NAF the night he died.
Pede, as sorority Secretary, can manipulate the paperwork to steal (a) vote(s).
We don’t know that at all. We know Blam claimed that he was blocked tht Night, but we don’t know if he was telling the truth, nor do we know why he was blocked if he was. Maybe he had a restriction on his role that caused it to fail. Maybe he was blocked by someone. There’s no reason to assume it was caused by a protective role, and at this point plenty of reason to assume it was caused by something else altogether(specifically, the fact that NAF wasn’t protected.)