Mafia: Evil Dead - DAY/NIGHT TWO

That’s one cool role.

Although we obviously shouldn’t trust NAF 100% I’m a bit concerned potentially lynching him is being discussed already. If he’s lying we’ll no doubt find out soon enough after all though it just sounds true to me right now.

That said

unvote hawkeyeop

I will try and make a vote before Night ends but I’m really not feeling anything major right now :frowning:

The Millit quote comes from 1.17. pedescribe made a true/false claim here, but since he claimed later that Day, it’s no use. Point six in this post from JSexton is just funny in relation to the claim :D.
Anyway, I didn’t find better statements to be tested on a quick skim of Day one.

NAF started to ask questions when both Hawk and Cookies had two votes. So it doesn’t like NAF is scum and trying to protect scum Hawk. I think if peeker hadn’t claimed, Hawk would have be lynched. But no way to be sure of that now or at the time when NAF started to ask his questions in 2.83.
Of course, if NAF is scum and Hawk is town, he could intend us to lynch town and buying him credit at the same time.

This is the dubious part of the claim:
Like Millit said, we already have a dead cop and because he’s telling what power roles should do.
If NAF is lying, in one swoop he removes the (probable) protection of the only confirmed town so far, but even if the doctor doesn’t listen, scum gets other confirmed townies to take out.
There are currently 22 players left and NAF isn’t confirmed yet (thus Hawk isn’t either). That means the confirmed group is still just the masons. Even if NAF is truthful, masons shouldn’t claim yet imo. The doctor (if any) should decide himself and leave the scum in the dark who he protects.

Danger, Will Robinson. As has already been said, at this point the only way we’ll know if he’s lying or not is if he dies, which is why people are talking about lynching him as a source of information. Forgive me if your assertion that it “just sounds true to me” doesn’t fill me with warm fuzzy comfort.

That should have been: ‘Like Millit said, we already have a dead cop and NAF thinks there is a third.’ Seems very unlikely to me and could be read as a challenge to that investigator to investigate and claim as well (and to be truly paranoid: Naf could be a scum godfather, so he would get confirmed).

I agree with you that the Vig - if (s)he so chooses - can take the vote count into consideration.
But I don’t agree that the Vig can be sure to follow the town’s will - just by following the way votes are cast. My point is that the scum are also voting and therefore the votes represent a mixture of town’s and scum’s will. That’s all.

@ NAFs claim:
Wow - just wow. I’m not sure if that the role could be a scum-role??
With Story writing the PMs I think faking one will take quite some writing skills. I’m sure NAF is a great writer - but faking Story’s way of putting words along with the subtle humor and the ironic understanding of the horror-genre. I believe a least a big part of the PM was made by Story.

Hm… I don’t really know whether or not to trust the role claim, but for all that’s good and holy, masons should not claim. Even if NAF is telling the truth, I’d rather have him waste an investigation than out the masons so soon. And if NAF isn’t telling the truth, obviously masons shouldn’t claim either.

That being said, as his role is at least semi confirmable, I can’t support a NAF lynch.

I believe Story did the roles but only one role thing in marvel too. It is an attempt to keep things consistent.

Naf, here let me help you out.

Brewha is town.
Mhaye is town.
Blaster Master is town.
Diggitcamara is town.
pedescribe is town.
Nanook of the North Shore is town.
Hockey Monkey is town.
JSexton is town.
Millit the Frail is town.
Zeriel is town.
Hal Briston is town.
Almost Human is town.
Amrussell is town.
Total Lost is town.
Rapier42 is town.
Natlaw is town.
Dotchem is town.
CometotheDarkSideWeHaveCookies is town.
special ed is town.
Chucara is town.

Hello, all -

It has come to moderatorial attention that the moderator is a dimwit. Please be advised that the win condition listed in the official, public vanilla Town PM is the complete, correct, and only Town win condition. If you have access to any information suggesting otherwise, then that information was a moderatorial mistake, borne of too much cutting and pasting and not enough sleep. Please forgive this intrusion.

At this point I have done all I can. Lynching me means you don’t get the results of my future Nights investigations, so I think it’s a mistake.

I also have a general philosophy that masons should claim as soon as their claiming causes the number of confirmed townies to outnumber scum, I have said this in other games. If the masons want to wait until one of my investigatees turns up scum (my guess is that either AH or Cookies will. Note how Cookies instantly reacted against me when I claimed) so they can be safe, do what you have to.

I do think that we are dealing with 6 scum, so we either have several doctors (something I don’t think to be likely because of Story’s pre game chatter) or we have multiple investigators. I don’t think any of us are full cops, but I do think that there is likely one other cop out there. That being said, I do think now was the right time to claim for a variety of reasons.

My vote is still on Chucara, but might move to Cookies.

NETA: Sorry, I meant to say my future Nights results. The investigations are in the Day the results come at Night.

Also, let’s be clear. I am not telling I am on the one hand requesting and on the other suggesting.

I would like doctor protection, and I think that the masons should claim.

OK, first things first: the case against dotchan.

  1. Low participation (3 posts D/N 1, 6 posts so far D/N 2) - not as low as some, but noticably sparse. Anti-town if not necessarily pro-scum.

  2. Her first post is here. Votes for macey, FOS’s Thing Fish and “raises an eyebrow” at **Cookies **for being “rather opportunistic” - i.e voting for JSexton. No explanation of why that’s opportunistic.

What jumps out of this post is that it’s very “me-too”. Not only voting for **macey **(5th vote) but also FOSing Thing Fish, who’s second. It seems like a very conscious effort to stick with the crowd.

  1. Other haven’t mentioned it, but I felt her post here was very smudgy (my bolding):

Looks to me like she’s trying a) to lump me in with TF and b) suggest I’ve been skimming - ironic, considering what happens next.

Chorus: No they weren’t!

Chorus: So why not vote for Hockey?

If nothing else, this suggests someone who is taking only a passing interest in the game. Her original vote was very much follow-the-leader; the next was utterly baseless.

Finally, it’s worth pointing out that **dotchan **has offered no defence whatsoever, just a shrugged acceptance of another lynching. At best, her posts and votes suggest somebody who isn’t trying very hard; at worst, she’s scum doing a bad job of smudging and building false cases, while skimming the thread quite egregiously.

I don’t think that’ll work as, if I understand correctly, NAF needs to be given statements that are true or false in relation to the player making the statement.

What I mean is, as you made the statement and you don’t know whether any of us are town, scum or whatever, I think any response NAF got to quoting you would be a resounding “woof!”

Anyways, in case NAF wants to check me out:

I am town.

I am not scum.

I am not pfk or any other third party-type thing.

Take your pick :slight_smile: though I do understand why it makes more sense for you to investigate people you think are town first.

That is mighty powerful role Naf is claiming. If I was modding I doubt I would put in a town role that potent. Which isn’t to say Story wouldn’t, but I think there is a distinct possibility that Naf is a third party. For that reason I’d advise against the other masons revealing their identities. Though, for a third party, he claimed rather early.

Even if he is a third party though, it is in our best interest to keep him alive. He is far more dangerous to scum than town (I don’t think it is likely he is scum anymore). He can expose lies, and scum need to lie to survive. So I expect them to try to get him lynched, but failing that use whatever they can to take him out. Speaking of which.

I’m content with my vote.

Second things second: NAF’s claim.

  1. It fits with his questioning of everyone. So either genuine, or a well-planned fake.

  2. Textual analysis department: This does read a lot like a **story **PM. Also, the vanilla PMs also say: “POWERS…1. You have no special powers.” So either genuine, or a well-written fake.

  3. Can we test it? The full hypothesis is: **NAF **is an accurate investigator who can test the truth of any sufficiently direct sentence, such as “I am pro-town.” We can falsify this by: a) lynching someone he says is town, and finding that they are scum; b) lynching someone he says is scum, and finding that they are town; c) lynching him to get his role information.

Option a) is right out; it’s too easy for a scummy **NAF **to outwit. Option b) is not available at this point. It would allow a scummy **NAF **to get a lynch on a townie, but at the cost of his own lynching. If we’re going to do this, we’re going to have to do it well before LyLo. How convenient/unlucky it would be for NAF not to get scum by the time we’re approaching LyLo would be a question for the individual to decide. Option c) has the advantage of giving definite information; the downside is that we may kill the goose laying the golden eggs.

Assuming six starting scum, we’re looking at 4 left alive now, with 16 town. (Going by Hawk’s test post above.) With the SK dead, we’re looking at losing 3 people per D/N cycle, based on Night One. If we don’t find scum, our numbers go: 16/4; 13/4; 10/4; 7/4. (Someone please check this!). One strategy would be to give **NAF **a couple of days to investigate people, and then lynch him to confirm them all - well before LyLo. This would also give him some time to find a scum for us to test him with.

This is an option that bears some risk: we don’t know where LyLo is, so we’d have to err on the side of caution. More importantly, we don’t know if scum have some one-time ability to increase the number of kills; we could hit LyLo before we know it. The upside is that if **NAF **is who he says he is, we get a bigger bunch of confirmeds than if we test him now.

There is of course always option d) we do nothing. I’m including this for completeness, and because it seems quite likely that we won’t get consensus immediately in any case. If **NAF is being honest with us, he may get confirmed by scum-kill. Conversely, if he isn’t bumped off as he builds a pool of confirmeds then either he’s progressively more and more likely to be scum, or the doctor is blocking a scum-kill and buying us more time.
**
If NAF is still alive and unconfirmed by the time we get to LyLo, the game will hinge on whether we make the right decision in trusting his pool of confirmed townies.
That will be a collective judgement, based on analysis and gut feel; we won’t have any certainty.

In any case, we can’t afford to give full credence to what he says until such time as we confirm him.

Oh, and in case the rules are that **Hawk **cannot speak truthfully about what he doesn’t actually know: I am town.

All this is assuming that his claim is accurate. We don’t have any way to know that at this point. (Although I agree that lynching him now is not the right move.)

Like the 60s pop culture reference even though it shows my advanced age!

Yes, I do see your point. But I also said that I don’t 100% believe him even though it did ring true to me.

I don’t see the benefit of lynching him to see if he’s telling the truth. If he’s telling the truth then the scum are going to kill him soon. I hope he’s protected but there’s no way of knowing that a doc will choose him over pede or hawk.

I’d rather let the scum have 3 possible candidates to WiFOM over and hope he stays alive long enough to give us more information.

And I’d urge everyone to make a clear statement saying they’re town too.

In my role, I got word that there were two players who had not paid their dues for the party. These two players are deadbeats, and presumably PFK. Peeker was one. I suspect you are the other. Why am I voting for PFK? Firstly, it’s night. We want to test the night-lynch, and I figure since we have a bonus kill, we can spare time to hit the other PFK. Secondly, my other main candidate is now under the aegis of a claimed cop. I’m not going to lynch him until I have more time to think about this.

WHY THE *************** DID YOU CLAIM DURING NIGHT? That was the dumbest thing I think I’ve…uhhhhhh. Seriously. You could have just waited until tomorrow, and spared the doc another night of self protection. That, alone, pings my meter a bit. Also, I have no control over the other masons, but I am not outing them, and I suspect they will not claim either.

Wait…really?

In a game this size, I wouldn’t be particularly surprised by two investigators, especially since NAF requires special finagilling for his powers to work, and the crisis of faith might have been a drawback for TF. However, I highly (highly) doubt there are three.

I claimed at Night intentionally.

Okay, why?