Mafia Reunion - Day 10

If there’s a slip here, it’s that he was being too trusting. Hawkeyeop just straight-up assumed that Koldanar was telling the truth rather than wondering whether it was a false claim. It seems moot now - we know (as best we can) that Koldanar is cult and Hawkeyeop isn’t. I don’t think it’s PIS.

Having said that, hawkeyeop needs a close look. I’ve been poking at the past threads and see that he’s been a low-volume poster all game. In a normal game we would’ve been called out for it by now, but we’ve had a handful of players legitimately ghosting so he’s slid by.

@raventhief - please tell us more about why you’re feeling discouraged. You’ve been pretty active, postwise, so it’s certainly not that you’re feeling like you have nothing to say. That kind of talk is what I’d expect from a player justifying a low post count.

I WAS justifying a relatively low post count - I was one of the players put on MK notice. I was also trying to explain my expectation of the others put on MK notice, and correlate it to my own experience in this game. Clearly that correlation is kinda crap, I see now, because sinjin, for one, was NOT a “vanilla” cultist, and still had a power to use.

I have been trying to post less fluff (with decidedly mixed results) , though fluff is a large part of what i like about the game. The game has gotten down to a more manageable level, which I also like :slight_smile:

Just as an update, I still find TexCat scummy, so unless someone more scummy comes along, I’ll keep it there.

Anyone up for some back-and-forthing? Influenced, of course.

I’m sadly uninfluenced for another 3 or 4 hrs. Sad.

:confused:

I am thoroughly influenced at the moment!

[QUOTE=Vote Counting Robot]

Texcat (1): Plumpudding (76)
Hawkeyeop (1): sinjin (33)
Zeriel (1): Biotop (78)
Koldanar (0): [del]Johnny Bravo (43)[53][/del]

[/QUOTE]

If you want, you can paste this as well:

Voting History:
post #33: sinjin voted Hawkeyeop
post #43: Johnny Bravo voted Koldanar
post #53: Johnny Bravo unvoted Koldanar
post #76: Plumpudding voted Texcat
post #78: Biotop voted Zeriel

Plummy, dear heart, can you link to a precis of your scum-case on Tex? Or shall I go forth and harvest some scumtells of my own?

That missed my vote on Zerial.

So I had two walls, or whatever you call them. D2 #68 and D3 #757. Of those two, I find the first more compelling, of course. Why that is significant, IMO, is because I can’t really see much more coming from TexCat after that. You had a few conflicting opinions Day 1, then excitement about discussing third-party/switches Day 2. Other than that she’s had lots of “helpful” posts and a seeming aversion of having to take a stand. From my read of her last three Days, that still rings true, Day 10 into the game. Keep in mind, some Days got kinda railroaded.

Vote Zerial

The interesting thing about this game is that if Biotop is scum, that doesn’t mean he’s advocating a town lynch. It’s actually in his interest to kill another scum faction. Therefore, I’m not worried that the case against Zerial is coming from an unconfirmed player. Even if scum wanted to lynch an unconfirmed town member, it would be difficult to pull off.

I am also suspicious of Texcat, who is usually a pretty aggressive voter. She’s usually making the first vote and the first case against another player, but she has been quiet in the last few Days. Trying to stay out of the spot light maybe?

Texcat is another one I seem to forget is in the game. It seems to me that both Scathach and Texcat are perhaps more visible usually than they are of late.

I expected Zeriel to plead VT as an excuse for dropping in participation. I dont believe that has happened. I dont believe any real explanation has taken place, though I may be mistaken.

So Zeriel - any reason you have flown under radar? Feel free to point me at an explanation, if I missed it.

I. Did say that I am traveling this week and am no t as attentive as usual.
Also without key board.

Still find me scummy, but no new reasons, and as I recall no old reasons either.

** vote plumpudding**

Omgus. Not enough from plum for much else.

Influencing myself now.

What I find interesting and unusual is that a majority of possible Scum in this game ARE Scum.

Usually in games you give players some benefit of the doubt because the majority are Town. If the majority are not Town, then the game is over.

But here for confirmed Town/LUTHA voters, the unconfirmed have a 5 in 9 (56%) chance of being Scum. For those of us who are unconfirmed but Town, the odds are 5 out of 8 (62.5%) of any one other unconfirmed player being Scum.

And this is just pure odds, without the additional benefit of 9+ days of game analysis. We have 15 players. We’d have to be at 6 players with no Mafia deaths for them to win. We’d have to be at 4 players with no Wolf deaths for them to win. If we keep lynching unconfirmed players Town should win unless there is some serious bad luck. Just on random lynching we should be removing a number of Scum over the next several Days. And I think we can do better than random.

Updated

Day 1[spoiler]Lakai(17): InnerSticker[257], [del]snfaulkner[295-1205][/del], RedSkeez[319], PlumPudding[647], Lightfoot[883], Koldanar[900], [del]Guiri[977-1182][/del], HoopyFrood[1031], Angel[1078], Meeko[1082], HockeyMonkey[1102], Drain[1108], RavenThief[1109], JSGoddess[1129], MHaye[1176], Nesta[1187], BuffTabby[1194], Cookies[1206], Nanook[1208]

ToeJam(15): [del][COLOR=“blue”]CaptKlutz[/COLOR][57-347][/del], Sunny Daze[113], [del]Normal[147-322][/del], Hooker[184], Sinjin[200], Sachertorte[534], [del]Lakai[775-1006][/del], CaptKlutz[796], Normal[1011], ProfP[1057], BillMc[1152], Septimus[1155], Biotop[1178], Guiri[1182], Ender[1195], Chronos[1197], snfaulkner[1205],Lakai[1209]

Colby(6): Texcat[91], [del]Guiri[101-977][/del], [del]Septimus[106-231][/del], [del]Meeko[130-1082][/del], ToeJam[132], [del]HockeyMonkey[152-1101][/del], [del]Lakai[154-775][/del], [del]Suburban[162-541][/del], [del]Diggit[249-264][/del], Hawkeye[350], [del]Nanook[455-1208][/del], Brewha[683], Pleonast[841], [del]Septimus[993-1034][/del], Suburban[1026]

Angel(3): [del]snfaulkner[37-157][/del], Zeriel[413], TotalLost[493], [del]JSGoddess[503-716][/del], BoozySquid[546], [del]Septimus[981-993][/del], [del]Lakai[1006-1209][/del]

Pleonast(1): [del]Septimus[85-106][/del], ThingFish[794], [del]Normal[824-1011][/del], [del]Nesta[1187-1187][/del]
Normal Phase(1): [del]Texcat[29-91][/del], Johnny Bravo[36], [del]Pleonast[241-511][/del]
Septimus(1): Ender[243], [del]TotalLost[273-493][/del], [del]Normal[322-714][/del], [del]Colby[335-946][/del], [del]CaptKlutz[347-796][/del], [del]HoopyFrood[480-736][/del], [del]Pleonast[511-841][/del]
snfaulkner(1): Diggit[264]
Texcat(1): Scathach[758]
Brewha(1): Colby[946]

JohnnyBravo(0): [del]Meeko[41-130][/del], [del]BuffTabby[259-1094][/del], [del]Septimus[488-659][/del]
Meeko[(0): [del]Drain[94-888][/del]
Drain(0): [del]Angel[97-542][/del]
BoozySquid(0): [del]Normal[102-147][/del], [del]snfaulkner[157-295][/del], [del]Angel[542-1078][/del], [del]Biotop[709-957][/del]
JSGoddess(0): [del]Chronos[183-917][/del]
Hawkeye(0): [del]BoozySquid[188-540][/del]
CaptKlutz(0): [del]HoopyFrood[195-480][/del], [del]Drain[889-1108][/del]
Biotop(0): [del]PlumPudding[412-470][/del]
Prof.P.(0): [del]PlumPudding[472-647][/del], [del]Septimus[659-981][/del]
Ender(0): [del]ProfP[528-545][/del]
PlumPudding(0): [del]Suburban[541-1026][/del]
Koldanar(0): [del]ProfP[545-908][/del]
TotalLost(0): [del]RavenThief[679-912][/del], [del]JSGoddess[716-1129][/del]
Scathach(0): [del]HoopyFrood[798-1031][/del]
ThingFish(0): [del]Chronos[917-1197][/del]
Chronos(0): [del]Biotop[957-1178][/del]

Not voting(9): Crys, DaphneBlack, HalBriston, Khameleon, PrecambrianMollusc, WinstonSmith, Sario, IdleThoughts[/spoiler]Day 2[spoiler]brewha(16): [del]bufftabby(373-417)[/del], Chronos(538), [del]Biotop(543-909)[/del], BoozaholSquid(556), Cometothe…Cookies(575), [del]sachertorte(576-913)[/del], [del]HookerChemical(621-688)[/del], bufftabby(622), DrainBead(638), [del]raventhief(646-1002)[/del], paulwhoisaghost(703), Khameleon(716), Lakai(720), [del]HookerChemical(722-988)[/del], Meeko(726), ToeJam(730), Crys75(743), JohnnyBravo(767), Prof. Pepperwinkle(794), BillMc(947), TotalLost (957), InnerStickler(1033)

ToeJam(14): [del]raventhief(31-597)[/del], IdleThoughts(32), [del]Sunny Daze(34-318)[/del], Biotop(909), sachertorte(913), CaptainKlutz(950), sinjin(955), HookerChemical(988), guiri(995), brewha(998), ThingFish(1000), raventhief(1002), Sunny Daze (1023), MHaye(1036), jsgoddess(1038), nesta(1039)

Crys75(8): [del]Guiri(262-812)[/del], [del]SunnyDaze(568-1023)[/del], HockeyMonkey(584), DiggitCamara(588), AngeloftheNorth(595), Texcat(639), [del]CaptainKlutz(640-950)[/del], snfaulkner(641); [del]jsgoddess(795-976)[/del], Hawkeyeop(803), Zeriel(860), Scathach(959)

Texcat(1): Plumpudding (68)
Thing Fish(1): Pleonast(121)
Chronos(1): Nanook (151)
HockeyMonkey(1): HoopyFrood(663)
snfaulkner(1): [del]DiggitCamara(250-588)[/del], [del]Texcat(633-639)[/del], [del]Guiri(812-995)[/del], koldanar(819)
Pleonast(1): Lightfoot(288), [del]HookerChemical(295-621)[/del], [del]ThingFish(297-1000)[/del], [del]jsgoddess(976-1038)[/del]

Plumpudding(0): [del]SunnyDaze (318-508)[/del]
Angelofthenorth(0): [del]Zeriel(60-529)[/del], [del]BoozaholSquid, P.I.(80-556)[/del]
Idle Thoughts(0): [del]Angelofthenorth (44-595)[/del]
BillMc(0): [del]DrainBead(132-638)[/del], [del]Texcat(179-633)[/del]
jsgoddess(0): [del]HoopyFrood(294-663)[/del]
DiggitCamara(0): [del]snfaulkner(332-641)[/del], [del]Paulwhoisaghost(386-699)[/del]
CaptainKlutz(0): [del]DrainBead(45-132)[/del], [del]SunnyDaze(567-568)[/del], [del]Crys75(583-743)[/del]
Meeko(0): [del]JohnnyBravo(169-767)[/del]
Sario(0): [del]Prof. Pepperwinkle(45-794)[/del], [del]Cometothe…Cookies(523-575)[/del]
Paulwhoisaghost(0): [del]Zeriel(529-860)[/del]
sachertorte(0): [del]Meeko(201-726)[/del], [del]brewha(806-998)[/del]

Non-voters(5): EnderW24, HalBriston, Precambrianmollusc, RedSkeezix, Sario[/spoiler]Day 3[spoiler]IdleThoughts(17): SunnyDaze(182), raventhief(207), [del]ToeJam(259-408)[/del], [del]HalBriston(300-923)[/del], [del]Prof.Pepperwinkle(398-692)[/del], [del]Paulwhoisaghost(515-710)[/del], Nanook(528), Biotop(533), JohnnyBravo(536), [del]Plumpudding(552-889)[/del], [del]Angelofthenorth(554-778)[/del], HockeyMonkey(576), Khameleon(593), sinjin(632), CaptainKlutz(699), Lightfoot(715), nesta(731), Hawkeyeop(758), BillMC(765), Zeriel(807), [del]snfaulkner(821-836)[/del], Angelofthenorth(873), [del]TexCat(874-908)[/del], Plumpudding(897), Cookies(917)

Prof. Pepperwinkle(14): [del]TexCat(278-874)[/del], jsgoddess(332), [del]Paulwhoisaghost(343-515)[/del], [del]Pleonast(345-602)[/del], InnerStickler(347), [del]Lightfoot(354-715)[/del], [del]HockeyMonkey(367-576)[/del], ToeJam(408), Bufftabby(420), [del]Biotop(458-532)[/del], Enderw24(588), IdleThoughts(590), Pleonast(602), Sachertorte(656), MHaye(674), Cygnus42(818), TotalLost(837), HoopyFrood(877), [del]ThingFish(901-903)[/del], TexCat(908), HalBriston(923)

Boozahol Squid(2): [del]HoopyFrood(286-877)[/del], [del]Angelofthenorth(303-554[/del]), [del]CaptainKlutz(487-699)[/del], Guiri(772), [del]Angelofthenorth(778-873)[/del], snfaulkner(83)

Khameleon(2): Meeko(319), [del]ThingFish(632-901)[/del], ThingFish(903)

Enderw24(1): [del]Nanook(28-528)[/del], Crys75(34)
Crys75(1): BoozaholSquid(499)
Sachertorte(1): [del]JohnnyBravo(14-536)[/del], [del]Prof. Pepperwinkle(339-398)[/del], Prof.Pepperwinkle(692)
ThingFish(1): [del]Pleonast(141-345)[/del], Diggitcamara(691)
HockeyMonkey(1): Lakai(704)
Diggitcamara(1): [del]Guiri(740-772)[/del], Paulwhoisaghost(796)
Pleonast(1): [del]Paulwhoisaghost(116-158)[/del], [del]Plumpudding(222-552)[/del], HookerChemical(814)

ToeJam(0): [del]HookerChemical(9-708)[/del], [del]snfaulkner(17-299)[/del], [del]BillMC(23-673)[/del], [del]Sinjin(53-632)[/del], [del]Biotop(112-296)[/del], [del]CaptainKlutz(118-298)[/del], [del]Angelofthenorth(134-303)[/del]

Non-voters(2): Koldanar, Scathach[/spoiler]Day 4[spoiler]DiggitCamara(14): Paulwhoisaghost(20), Totallost(172), Guiri(263), Koldanar(376), BillMC(422), HookerChemical(438), Prof.P(511), raventhief(516), Boozy(518), HoopyFrood(519), Lakai(521), SunnyDaze(529), Cygnus42(530), [del]JohnnyBravo(534-546)[/del], bufftabby (535)

BoozaholSquid(14): CaptainKlutz(45), EnderW24(102), Biotop(180), snfaulkner(192), [del]HookerChemical(262-438)[/del], DiggitCamera(288), Meeko(302), Hawkeyeop(320), Inner Stickler(346), Sachertorte(523), Plumpudding(524), Texcat(525), Cookies(543), HockeyMonkey(544), JohnnyBravo(546)

Prof. Pepperwinkle(6): [del]BoozaholSquid(48-61)[/del], [del]Pleonast(121-142)[/del], Pleonast(142), Nanook(152), [del]bufftabby(197-535)[/del], Zeriel(353), MHaye(417), sinjin(435), Lightfoot(473)

EnderW(1): Crys(15)

HookerChemical(0): [del]Lakai(46-440)[/del]
sachertorte(0): [del]Prof.P(419-511)[/del]
Meeko(0): [del]BoozaholSquid(314-518)[/del]
Texcat(0): [del]HoopyFrood(315-519)[/del]
Biotop(0): [del]Lakai(440-521)[/del], [del]sachertorte(452)[/del]
Paulwhoisaghost(0): [del]Texcat(471-525)[/del]
Hal Briston(0): [del]Plumpudding(298-524)[/del], [del]HockeyMonkey(305-527)[/del]
Khameleon(0): [del]JohnnyBravo(26-534)[/del], [del]HoopyFrood(52-315)[/del], [del]Prof.P(154-419)[/del]

Not voting(4): HalBriston, Khameleon, Nesta, Scathach[/spoiler]Day 5[spoiler]Prof Pepperwinkle(15): Hawkeyeop(6), paulwiag(19), Lakai(50), bufftabby(57), [del]snfaulkner(68-231)[/del], sinjin(104), Biotop(129), CaptainKlutz(138), [del]JohnnyBravo(142-296)[/del], DarkCookies(192), Khameleon(201), Mhaye(224), LightFoot(230), Zeriel(257), Cygnus42(353), Nanook(395), Koldanar(431)

TexCat(3): PlumPudding(38), HoopyFrood(229), nesta(438)

Nanook(2): Sachertorte(225), HookerChemical(253)
Sachertorte(2): JohnnyBravo(296), Prof P(445)

Johnny Bravo(1): InnerStickler(314), [del]Koldanar(341-357)[/del]
Khameleon(1): Snfaulkner(231)
Paulwhoisaghost(1): TexCat(22)
TotalLost(1): Guiri(429)[/spoiler]Day 6[spoiler]Inner (7): Texcat(55), Johnny(81), Hooker(85), Raven(89), Cygnus(127), Lakai(188), Ender(198)

Texcat (4): Hoopy(24), [del]Klutz(26-102)[/del], Plump([del]31-50[/del],50), Guiri(94), Nesta(205)

Khameleon (3): snfaulkner(6), [del]Johnny(10-81)[/del], Crys(173), Lightfoot(201)
Hal (3): Bufftabby(143), Hawkeyeop(162), MHaye(208)

Johnny (1): Inner(32)
Zeriel (1): Biotop(65)
Snfaulkner (1): Khameleon(182)
Cygnus (1): Klutz(185)

Klutz (0): [del]Texcat(35-55)[/del]
Total (0): [del]Guiri(40-94)[/del]

Not voting (9): Cookies, Hal, Koldanar, Nanook, Scathach, Sinjin, Total, Zeriel[/spoiler]
Day 8[spoiler]
Cygnus42 (8): LightFoot(143), guiri(149), Koldanar(161), Zeriel(163), Khameleon(164), nesta(167), Nanook170), MHaye(179)

Koldanar (4): Scathach(13), [del]Johnny Bravo(103-128)[/del], Texcat(172), hawkeyeop(176), sinjin(177)

Johnny Bravo (3): Lakai(132), bufftabby(144), Cygnus42(166)

Zeriel (2): Biotop(49), CaptainKlutz(169)

nesta (1): Johnny Bravo(128)

Lakai (0): [del]Nanook(107-170)[/del]

Texcat (0): [del]Guiri(67-149)[/del]
Khameleon (0): [del]snfaulkner(68-115)[/del], [del]JohnnyBravo(70-103)[/del], [del]Zeriel(82-98)[/del]
Nanook (0): [del]Lakai(73-132)[/del], [del]Khameleon(80-93)[/del]

Not voting (3): Plumpudding, Raventhief, snfaulkner
[/spoiler]
Day 9[spoiler]

bufftabby(10): JohnnyBravo(123), CaptainKlutz(128), Scathach(129), Raventhief(130), snfaulkner(135), Zeriel(140), Plumpudding(147), Texcat(174), Nesta(201), Koldanar(207)

Zeriel(2): Biotop(81), Lakai (194)
JohnnyBravo(3): bufftabby(101), LightFoot(106), hawkeyeop(145)
Plumpudding(2): Nanook(234), MHaye(245)
Koldanar(0): [del]Texcat(53-174)[/del]

Not voting(1): sinjin

Note:
hawkeyeop had an improperly formatted vote for JohnnyBravo in 145
Nanook had an improperly formatted vote for Plumpudding in 234
They are included in this unofficial vote count
[/spoiler]

I did a little poking at the D4 and D9 votes, since those are the only days we hit scum and they were both wolves.

Here are the unconfirmed who voted for Boozy:

Biotop
Hawkeyeop
Texcat
Johnny Bravo

Here are the unconfirmed who voted for bufftabby:

Johnny Bravo
Scathach
Raventhief
Zeriel
Plumpudding
Texcat

Here are the unconfirmed who voted for both:

Johnny Bravo
Texcat

There are no unconfirmed votes late enough on the Diggit train to be read as an effort to save Boozy, but Texcat and Plumpudding are both fairly late on the Boozy train.

If you look at the votecounts on Boozy, Plumpudding and forward are the rush that were needed to get him onto the second lynch. So I give Plumpudding and Texcat not-a-wolf cred there.

Texcat was also the only unconfirmed player (other than me) on both wolf lynches. She voted late on the second one, though. Bufftabby was already up by four votes and nobody else seemed particularly enthused about the next most popular lynch (me).

Still, if Texcat is scum, she’s more likely mafia than a wolf.

Scathath and raventhief voted bufftabby early enough that it gives them strong non-wolf credit. If they’re scum, they’re more likfely mafia than a wolf.

Other tidbits that may or may not be useful:

[ul]
[li]Only one unconfirmed player voted for neither wolf: Nanook of the North Shore. [/li]
[li]Only one unconfirmed player ended Day 4 with their vote on DiggitCamara: raventhief.[/li]
[li]Only one unconfirmed player ended Day 4 not voting at all: Scathatch[/li]
[li]Only two unconfirmed players ended Day 4 with a vote placed, but not on either vote leader: Nanook and Zeriel.[/li]
[li]There is currently only one known Mafia on the Boozy vote and two Mafia votes total unaccounted for. It seems reasonable to assume there is a mafia somewhere in the Boozy grouping.[/li]
[li]I mentioned yesterday that it seemed relatively unlikely that two of the three votes on me would have been from the same scum team at that stage in the game. Now that we know bufftabby was a wolf, I would say that if hawkeyeop is scum, he’s likely mafia. Hawkeyeop has not claimed VT.[/li][/ul]

At this point, since interest is waning - would we benefit from a shortened schedule / hammer, or would that be counter productive? I find myself waiting days sometimes before there’s enough posts to really read through.

One last thing.

At the time of the D4 vote, five wolves were alive. Three of those votes are accounted for.

There are three unconfirmed players who are not on my “less likely to be a wolf” list based on all of the above.

Biotop (voted Boozy)
Nanook (voted Prof. P)
Zeriel (voted Prof. P)

If I follow my own logic, it means there are two wolves in this pool.

This is enough to make me okay going along with the town vote:

vote zeriel

At the time Zeriel placed that vote, Boozy was the vote leader with nine votes - Diggit and Prof. P were tied for second with three each.

I’d rather kill a mafia than a wolf today, though. I’m going to keep poking at stuff and see if I can tease out anything that might establish someone as mafia-flavored scum.