Mafia Reunion - Day 10

[Koldanar]

@Johnny_Bravo

That’s what I figured, but I didn’t want to lead the witness, so to speak. I believe you.

unvote koldanar

My overall suspicions of Koldanar’s claim specifically and the cult broadly remain, but I’m happy tending to the unconfirmed pool for the time being.

Well, thank you for the removal, at least.

Sinjin? Lying, not cool.

[Zeriel]

I posted twice in Day Nine instead of looking for this one.

@Zeriel

Personally I’m just force-of-habit not posting at Night.

@Zeriel

Normally that’s true, but I worry about the potential for scum to have honest cases against opposite-team scum if you’re looking at things that way.

[NAF1138]

@Johnny_Bravo

It seems mostly moot now, but did you mean to only say he’s protected toDay, or did you mean to say he’s protected for the entire cycle per sinjin’s claim?

Ah, can’t answer that. Sorry.

[raventhief]

I am wondering why this protection was announced.

[Johnny_Bravo]

@NAF1138

Ah, can’t answer that. Sorry.

That’s why I worded it how I did. I just wanted clarification that the post was written as intended.

[sinjin]

So I got a reply from NAF:

[QUOTE=NAF1138]

[QUOTE=sinjin]

[QUOTE=NAF1138]

[QUOTE=sinjin]
So did you guys get my message? Was Mhaye protected? Will there be an announcement of said protection?
[/QUOTE]

We got the message, he was protected. There should be a message saying he can’t be Day killed toDay. Thanks!
[/QUOTE]

And ToNight will there be a message saying he can’t be night killed?
[/QUOTE]

Yes
[/QUOTE]

[sinjin]

Here is my complete powers

POWERS:
You have the single-use power, which must be initiated at Night, to protect any player in the game except for yourself from all kills other than the Primary Lynch for the full subsequent Day-Night Cycle. Note that the immunity of this player to kills will be made public knowledge, though the source of the protection will not be.

[sinjin]

@Hawkeyeop

I’m confused as to what you think I knew. The first two Luthas who claimed had numbers (first/second deacon) associated with their claim. Koldanar didn’t. So Koldanar either successfully guessed/knew the rest of the Lutha did not have a number associated with them (and weren’t deacons and had different powers…) or he was a legitimate Lutha. I found the former unlikely, so I believed Lutha’s claim once further Lutha revealed themselves and were also different then the original pair.

You keep saying that **Koldanar **said that the rest of Lutha were not deacons or have numbers associated. Please provide a site for that claim. I have reread and searched and can’t find it.

[Hawkeyeop]

@sinjin

You keep saying that **Koldanar **said that the rest of Lutha were not deacons or have numbers associated. Please provide a site for that claim. I have reread and searched and can’t find it.

No, that is not what I said. Or at least not what I think I said. All Koldanar did was claim.

Lets try this.

At the time of Koldanar’s claim, there were two Lutha’s revealed: First Deacon and Second Deacon. Koldanar was 3rd to claim. If he was making a fake claim at that point what do you think it would say?

[raventhief]

sinjin, anything else you edited in your role?

[snfaulkner]

@Lakai

Lets ponder the benefits of that power for a second. If we lynch the patsy, we get to have a town player control another kill before another round of two scum kills. That might actually be beneficial to the town.

If the patsy claims and reduces the pool, and the town miss-lynches, then we lose a day and suffer two kills. It could mean three dead town in a week without a scum kill. Whereas with a patsy miss-lynch, we have a chance of softening the blow somewhat.

That might be more beneficial to the town than reducing the pool now. If the patsy gets miss-lynched , he or she can shoot into the same pool of players that would exist if the patsy claimed. I can see the logic of the patsy not claiming.

@MHaye

Unfortunately, my target was left alone both by Day and Night. So it yielded nothing.

Still, at least I wasn’t roleblocked.

I watched one of the unconfirmed pool.

I’m not surprised that the Wolves shot into the unconfirmed pool, as the unconfirmed pool are where the Mafia are hiding, and it’s the Mafia that Wolves need to kill right now. But I am surprised at Lightfoot’s death because we know she was the one player in the unconfirmed pool who was not Mafia.

@Captain_Klutz

Here are the unconfirmed players:

Biotop
hawkeyeop
Johnny Bravo
Nanook of the North Shore
Plumpudding
Raventhief
Scathach
Texcat
Zeriel

5 of those 9 are scum. I think people should check out any or all of them, according to their own preferences. Limiting to those who claimed vanilla is reasonable, as that is a smaller pool which definitely contains scum.

Oh, and I still think the Patsy should claim. The revenge kill if lynched is not worth it, as it still results in a definite town death. Sure, the revenge kill does reduce the unknown pool a bit quicker, but so does simply claiming. You are more useful as a confirmed town, and it also means there is one fewer player to investigate.

Ok, you three are the only ones I really trust super duper trust at the moment. Who are we going to vote for? Sinjin is still on hawkeyeop for what appears to be a misunderstanding, but that doesn’t make him NOT scum. Biotop had a decent sounding case on Zerial. Texcat has been kinda making me wary all game. I’m always wary of Biotop…I think it’s best we DON’T shoot into the claimed town pile just yet…So, do we roll the dice and pick?

[Lakai]

I like the case Biotop has against Zeriel and might vote for him unless someone comes up with a better target.

I’m also suspicious of the way Johnny Bravo jumps at any chance he gets to lynch a cult member. I don’t think he’s a wolf, but there is a strong possibility he is mafia trying to keep the town from going after a scum lynch.

[snfaulkner]

@Lakai

I like the case Biotop has against Zeriel and might vote for him unless someone comes up with a better target.

I say let’s do it and see how it goes.

**
Vote Zerial
**

I’m also suspicious of the way Johnny Bravo jumps at any chance he gets to lynch a cult member. I don’t think he’s a wolf, but there is a strong possibility he is mafia trying to keep the town from going after a scum lynch.

He’s been seeming mostly towny to me, but I can see your point.

[Captain_Klutz]

@snfaulkner

Ok, you three are the only ones I really trust super duper trust at the moment. Who are we going to vote for? Sinjin is still on hawkeyeop for what appears to be a misunderstanding, but that doesn’t make him NOT scum. Biotop had a decent sounding case on Zerial. Texcat has been kinda making me wary all game. I’m always wary of Biotop…I think it’s best we DON’T shoot into the claimed town pile just yet…So, do we roll the dice and pick?

I think cases need to be made by the unknowns - if a confirmed player makes a case it is a bit easy to justify a “me too” vote.

These are the unknowns:
Biotop
hawkeyeop
Johnny Bravo
Nanook of the North Shore
Plumpudding
Raventhief
Scathach
Texcat
Zeriel

I would like each of these players to state their top suspects.

[raventhief]

I will make better, more reasoned arguments tomorrow, I think, when i am not quite so sleepy. I found Nanook’s harsh tone with Lightfoot to be rather offputting. I will further examine that tomorrow. I actually keep forgetting Scathach is playing, and then am reminded, so she may warrant a closer look again tomorrow as well (little t tomorrow, or would that be little “m”? At any rate I mean Thursday.)

[Plumpudding]

I’m gonna revive my TexCat vote. She’s been pinging me all game – I don’t have any new reasons for my vote, but I’ll have a look at her behaviour the last couple of Days before EOD, so I might change my vote if I find it lacking.

vote TexCat

I got OMUGS-pinged by Nanook yeasterDay, and had a cursory look. Conclusion: neutral.

I have no idea about Johnny Bravo. Scathach is flying under the radar, could maybe use some heat. I’m torn on Zeriel, mostly because I don’t trust Biotop. Why don’t I trust him? I don’t know, there’s something about him this game. My view of him is probably coloured by Lion.

I think the Patsy should claim now, I think limiting the pool would be more valuable than the lynch-kill power.

[Johnny_Bravo]

@Lakai

I’m also suspicious of the way Johnny Bravo jumps at any chance he gets to lynch a cult member. I don’t think he’s a wolf, but there is a strong possibility he is mafia trying to keep the town from going after a scum lynch.

If this is because of my vote on Koldanar today, I think you should look again at why I placed it and also why I removed it. If it’s about my attitude towards the cult in general, I think you should look back at what I’ve made my priority the last couple of Days.

I’m currently going through all of Nanook’s posts when I have the time. I’m on Day 3.

[Biotop]

**Vote Zeriel **

Based on the case with links here and follow-up comments here.

I would be happy with a lynch of TexCat, who has been pinging everyone all game but is still somehow alive, or a lynch of** Nanook**, who **Lightfoot ** pointed to yesterDay before dying.

I am neutral on** Scathach**, Plumpudding ** and raventhief**. At least one of them is almost certainly Scum.

hawkeyeop posted on Night 0 about the game needing to be fair for Scum. I *still *can’t see Scum posting that. If he did and is Scum then I tip my hat.

**Johnny Bravo **strikes me as most likely to be Town.

[Johnny_Bravo]

Okay, I’m done with my readthrough of Nanook. This bloated carcass of a game is pretty unwieldy.

First, vote history and postcounts.

D1 - #454 - vote colby
D1 - #1208 - vote Lakai1
D2 - #151 - vote Chronos
D3 - #28 vote enderw24
D3 - #528 vote idle Thoughts
D4 - #152 vote Prof. P
D5 - #395 - vote Prof P
D6 - no vote
D7 - #66 - vote cookies
D8 - #107 - Vote lakai
D8 - #170 - vote Cygnus
D9 - #234 - vote Plumpudding
D1 - 16
D2 - 4
D3 - 17
D4 - 9
D5 - 16
D6 - 8
D7 - 26
D8 - 9
D9 - 3

Now my notes. Nanook has a fair number of posts so if you were expecting a WoW you’re out of luck. These are literal notes.

Nanook of the North Shore

D/N 1

#456: answers Hal Briston’s question about the mafia/wolf kill that ended up being what clued bufftabby into the fact that he was mafia.

Ends with vote on Lakai 1, the lynchee.

D/N 2

Only four posts due to deaths in the wife’s family.

#151 - votes Chronos because he thinks Chronos might be some sort of weird 3P role. Says the multilynch is a bad idea for town early in the game because it shortens the game.

Day ends with vote on Chronos, not the lynchee.

D/N 3

#89 - floats the idea that the vig should claim, since the switches make him not much better than vanilla. This gets a “hmm” from me.

#109 - Admits that it may be a bad idea, but still says he doesn’t “consider Batman being outted a major downside.”

#198 - Says that all of Pleo’s votes are awful and flimsy.

The rest of the his posts in the Day are concerned with IdleGate. Voting Idle during this is a null tell. The only point of interest is that he was convinced that Idle was scum the whole way.

Day Ends with vote on Idle Thoughts, the lynchee.

D/N 4

#152. In a post to Prof. P:

“Hey, here I am again being super helpy but not actually analyzing anything. I promise you some unspecified time later I will do analysis, just not now. But later for sure. I have no idea when later is, but it’s totally coming.”

Votes for Prof P.

He later apologizes for the tone. I agree with the sentiment, FWIW. Promising to do analysis and then not following through is a scum tell.***

Day ends with vote on Prof P, not the lynchee.

D/N 5

Spends the majority of the day building a case against Enderw24 being mafia.

#395, votes Prof P. Says he thought he had voted earlier.

D/N 6

Comes in late to apologize for not playing. Places no vote. Does spend time going over MHaye’s results.

D/N 7

#66, votes cookies

Advocates against Lightfoot’s plan to have people unvote Cookies just in case she was a bomb.

Most of the day is spent discussing Koldanar’s claim and what the SK may or may not be.

#205: “The various people that have volunteered to take one for the team? Yeah, you just helped scum by narrowing the pool for powers. This is what I meant when I said that trying to avoid the theoretical bomb was more likely to cause harm than help.”

D/N 8

Nothing here really jumped out at me. Ends day with vote on Cygnus, the lynchee.

D/N 9

Has a little argument about people feeling obligated to play. Goes at Lightfoot for her plans to “confuse” scum - a sentiment I also agree with.

Ends day with vote on Plumpudding, not the lynchee.

Analysis:

I chose Nanook first out of the small pool (me, Nanook, Plumpudding, raventhief) because I honestly expected to catch him actively lurking. It turns out that we’ve mostly just been going after completely different people for most of the game. He has had days where he didn’t post at all, but hasn’t lurked as much as others.

He’s spent a lot of time discussing strategy, which is sometimes a “helpful townie” scum tell. He’s gone after a lot of players. I don’t believe he’s ever done a detailed look at any single player (though I might be wrong - I don’t have one in my notes and I’m not looking back through nine threads).

I take his side in the argument he had with Lightfoot on Day 9 - the plan to “confuse” scum was (as we now know) well intentioned, but that doesn’t mean it was a good plan. All it did was distract.

Only one thing really jumped out at me, and you can make of this what you will;

Nanook has never placed a vote on scum. He voted for Cookies on D6 and every single other one of his has been on a townie (we don’t know about his D9 vote yet). Might be a null tell.

Verdict: I get an overall townie vibe from Nanook. A lot of his arguments have been pro-town at heart. I like that he discouraged people from hopping off of the cookies bomb.

***I wanted to highlight this. There’s currently at least one player in the unconfirmed pool who has promised to do analysis and failed to deliver. This is a scum tell. Prof P obviously wasn’t scum, but that’s the point of tells - they’re clues and not absolutes. If somebody says “I am a wolf,” that’s not a tell anymore.

[Hal_Briston]

@snfaulkner

Are there any modkills pending?

There are three of them…I’m sure we can afford one.

Hmm?

Oh…sorry.

Right, no dead guy commentary.

I’m out.

<exits through wall>