Where are your priorities, man?
I…I kinda felt like we were your children…sob
Look what you did! You made snfaulkner cry!
Well, in a way you are.
For example, I am happy to punish you all when you get lynched.
Zeriel is lynched, because, mostly he stopped trying shortly after Bufftabby was killed.
Zeriel was a wereworlf. Which role, I’m too lazy to look. He isn’t the alpha wolf though, he’s the other one.
Snfaulkner, I’m taking you out of this thing too. Your death was supposed to be bloody, but no… No child. Simply disappear into the Night. We won’t here the stories of the pain inflicted upon you.
We will take good care of your basement.
snfaulkner - the basement based Tinkerer was town. And is now dead.
Also, no one go killing MHaye toNight. He’s still protected.
Bah! Go town! I’m off to sob myself to sleep in the well of souls thread…
So Zeriel was the Trickster, then?
Clearly I should not have any expectations on my “group.” Since I was wrong twice now.
(Bye snfaulkner and zeriel!)
I was in fact the Trickster.
Lets do some end game math here. It looks like the earliest the mafia can win is if the town miss-lynches two times in a row, and the lone wolf kills town for two Nights in a row.
We have 13 players now, and it has to get down to six for the mafia to win. One player will die at Night, and up to six town members can die after two Days, which would bring the total down to six.
Of course if the town lynches a mafia member, then the number of players would have to get down to 4 before the mafia wins. And if we lynch the wolf, then it could take up to six Days before the mafia kills enough town members to win.
Short game strategy is not to go two Days in a row without any scum lynches. There are now eight unconfirmed players and four scum. Fifty-Fifty chance of lynching scum on Day 11.
Not sure what the wolf will do at Night. The only way for the wolves to win now is to eliminate all mafia, but they have been killing confirmed town members. Not sure what they were thinking.
Gosh, that’s good. I only voted Zeriel as a self-defense move, but it turned out to be a good vote. Biotop has been voting Zeriel for what seems like forever, but until toDay no one else seemed all that interested in the case.
I’m thinking that the other wolf was almost certainly voting for me. Plumpudding, Raventhief, Hawkeye, and Koldanar were my voters.
Whoop! Whoop!
SNF: I’ll see you over in Pleonast’s game in a week or so.
Zeriel: Hope to encounter you sometime soon in another game.
There is one absent player who deserves special credit for toDay’s lynch: paulwhoisaghost.
If **paul ** had not done an analysis of Zeriel, then asked follow-up questions and noticed the discrepancy in the response, then Zeriel would have remained off the radar. Well done.
There are only three players Town can mislynch. If the Patsy gets in hot water, all he/she has to do is claim. So currently our odds toMorrow of a successful lynch are at 57%. If we mislynch, the odds the next day would increase to 66%.
Check my math, but I believe the odds of Town shooting into pool of 7 players with 4 Scum, and mislynching twice is only 14.2%. We are not just shooting at random, however. We have data. If we hit just one Mafia we would have to drop to a minimum of four players to lose. If we kill the last wolf then there is only 1 Scum kill per Day. Again, that would mean we’d have time to find and kill Mafia because the Scum kill rate would be cut in half.
*There is *the **Nanook **wild card, however. It looks like he is getting ready to be mod killed, and he is one of the unconfirmed. I have not factored this into the equation because I am too tired tonight to do any more factoring.
I am pretty sure a **Nanook **mod kill all but ices the game for Town no matter his affiliation. Remove an unclaimed Townie and the odds of us mislynching twice in a row (still necessary for a Mafia win) drop to 6%.
A wolf win chance would be very small indeed.
Or maybe **Nanook **is Scum throwing in the towel? If so and he is the last wolf, then there is no Night kill tonight and we have the numbers to kill until the Mafia is done because Scum would only have one kill per day, same as Town. Town has 4 confirmed roles +2 Lutha and only 3 mislynches are possible.
If he (**Nanook **)is Mafia, then Town has even more mislynches available, yet only 3 mislynches are possible. We couldn’t lose. Game over.
I hope **Nanook **is OK.
Seems odd to sign up in December, play for 2 and a half months, and then just disappear. He has not posted since March 12th.
I’ve spoken to Nanook. He’s OK, he’s just legitimately unable to participate now due to work. He will be removed at Dawn.
I guess with a game that lasts 2 months, it is not that odd that people could not anticipate future business. I just started my Track coaching, which is an additional 20 hours per week on top of my normal full-time job.
I knew it was coming, but it was not pressing on my mind back in December when we started planning the game.
I’m actually going to say, if anyone else feels that they won’t be able to participate fully speak up now. We can remove you with no hard feelings and we won’t make you lose. I’d rather a mass exodus than a slow dribble.
nods Didn’t exactly consider my March availability. Stupid scum and their lack of killing me.
I’m sorry I can’t keep playing. When I signed up I didn’t really grasp how long the game would last. And that combined with the fact that this year’s audit is horrible, easily the worst one I’ve been involved with in my several years at this company. Which is saying something, considering last year’s was a double audit since we fired our previous audit company.
I’d probably be interested in a new game in a month or two. Summer is my down season, so I have way more time available.
Is Night over ?