Mafia Reunion Day 12

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61

You think there was a scenario where a real Patsy wouldn’t counterclaim before EOD? That sounds like really silly play by the Patsy. I mean I avoided claiming all game, but I would have claimed immediately if someone else made a false claim. Staying hidden for the Patsy would never be worse not outing a scum. I don’t think the scum would need to consider the Patsy not countering in their plans.

I also think Texact attempted to blackmail because she was about to be lynched, nor that she was trying to get lynched in order to be able to blackmail. I don’t think it was a strong enough ploy to lose Texact over unless she was going to die anyway.

I lean Biotop from the remaining vanillas. I had thought you, but I think you have too much of a target for the scum to leave you as their last player. Biotop’s suggested plans have been weird enough that they strike me as a desperate scum.

62

Refusing to claim all game, even in the face of a mass claim by the remaining town power roles, was really silly play. We wouldn’t be having this argument at all if they’d just claimed with the rest of town a couple Days ago.

Even now, you’re saying that you didn’t claim because claiming wouldn’t have provided information to town. That is patently incorrect.

So no, the patsy doesn’t get a pass because not claiming would have been suboptimal play.

63

Okay, folks! Johnny is coming at you with a whole new analysis!

I wanted to look back at the patsy claim discussion. I looked at all the currently unconfirmed players (minus myself because I posted the most about it and it would have added a ton more work), and also added in Texcat because she was heavily involved.

Here’s what I found. As always, stuff like this involves a lot of ctrl+F for keywords, so I may have missed stuff.

Day 9

Hawkeye #36 - says the patsy AND the mason have no particular value in claiming.

Texcat #39 - The patsy absolutely under no circumstance should claim.

Hawkeye #40 - “what Texcat said,” is suspicious of Johnny Bravo for pushing the mass claim.

Hawkeye #50 - the patsy is unlikely to be counterclaimed.

Texcat #196 - still doesn’t understand the push for claims.

Hawkeye #197 - How will a patsy claim help now? Bufftabby is going to be lynched.

Hawkeye #203 - Why worry today? It’s not useful to town right now and provides information to scum.

Biotop #264 - isn’t it funny how the patsy is still alive? And how badly stuff has been going for town but town is going to win no matter what?

Biotop #273 - town is going to win no matter what, but if we give them a “road map” with an extra claim, maybe town won’t win after all.

Biotop #276 - no advantage whatsoever to a full claim right now.

Day 10

Scthach #22 - “the patsy would be an idiot to claim right now. The only power left is the kill if lynched.”

Biotop #29 - isn’t it funny how the patsy is still unclaimed?

Texcat #31 - There are probably more scum in the [johnny bravo/plumpudding/raventhief/nanook] pool than in the remaining players because scum are more likely to try and get their claims in early. Note that this was before Biotop claimed VT, so this post is obliquely giving him cred.

Plumpudding #76 - the patsy should claim now. Limiting the pool is better than the power.

Biotop #78 - hawkeyeop is probably town for his “fair for scum” comment, but Johnny Bravo is MOST likely to be town.

Biotop #96 - town will win unless we have “serious bad luck.”

Biotop #152 - Patsy doesn’t need to claim. This is a classic Biotop post, by the way. Thoughtful, looking at numbers, calculating odds. This is what I’m talking about upthread when I say he’s not posting like himself right now.

Day 11

Texcat #6 - Let’s not expose the patsy, now.

Raventhief #12 - the patsy should claim

Biotop #13 - why would Lutha EVER side with Mafia? Also, the patsy should claim now because I’m sick of talking about them. Also, I’m vanilla town.

Plumpudding #14 - the patsy should claim

Texcat #18 - Look, let’s give the patsy credit. Perhaps the patsy has a clever plan. ALARM ALARM ALARM - talk about plans and patsies.

Texcat #27 - it would not be at all surprising if all three remaining mafia were in the [johnny bravo/raventhief/plumpudding/biotop] pool. Of course, now we know that there was only ONE mafia in that pool - one was Texcat and the other is either hawkeyeop or Scathach.

hawkeyeop #43 - this is where he claims patsy, and I think where I can end this particular flavor of analysis. I’m going to address this particular post in my analysis.

64

Okay. The first thing I want to bring up is some claim stuff.

By the time Texcat posted D11#18, mafia knew who the patsy was. Biotop was the last player to claim VT, and he did that in D11#13. At that point, the remaining unclaimed vanilla players were [texcat/scathach/hawkeyeop], two of whom are scum.

If Biotop is the hidden scum, then mafia knew who the patsy was all the way back D9#202 when raventhief claimed VT.

So Texcat was pushing for the patsy to remain silent even after she knew the patsy’s identity.

Leaving that bit aside, we can see that Texcat was vociferously opposed to a patsy claim. The simplest reason for this is because the patsy claiming would have helped town by providing information. The more speculative reason is because they figured that they could make use of the (by now obviously secretive) patsy is some way in the future.

Who urged the patsy to claim?

Raventhief and Plumpudding.

Who joined Texcat in urging the patsy to remain silent?

Biotop and Hawkeyeop.

Biotop even went so far as to say that the win was wrapped up but that more claims might throw it to scum.

Biotop put hawkeyeop on his townie shortlist in D10#78.

Hawkeye “me too’d” a Texcat post in D9#40.

Biotop suddenly reversed his very firmly stated position, said the patsy should reveal, and removed himself from the patsy pool very shortly before hawkeye made his claim.

Biotop and Hawkeyeop were the only two players who seemed to have the same agenda as Texcat. They are the scum.

One more post incoming.

65

We also wouldn’t have two scums outed as false claimants. I don’t think this worked out badly for town. Worst case scenario, I get lynched and take out a scum with me. This isn’t a bad tradeoff for town.

Sure you would have had a slightly smaller pool of people to look it when trying to figure out who scum was at during the start of the day. You also would have been able to trust me more. That is it. That is very minimal benefit for town and I felt less useful then remaining an unknown. You have yet to make a convincing argument how knowing I was patsy would have changed anything about how town has played the game. I felt there was utility to being an unknown, particularly when we had 4 different groups active, all with their own motives and people they were looking for.

I will say the fact that you were pushing so hard for a mass claim, as a player of unknown allegiance, contributed to my reluctance to claim.

If you can’t see the difference between these two scenarios I can’t really help you. One the town would have a slightly smaller pool of people to look at. The other would out a scum.

66

I want to quote something from hawkeyeop’s claim post.

Looking at the above summary, there is no reasonable way for hawkeyeop to state that he mostly stayed out of the patsy claim discussion. He was the second-loudest person urging the patsy to remain silent. This is a lie. Hawkeye needed something, anything that he could use as some kind of breadcrumb.

However, Pleo did predict that the patsy would stay out of the discussion.

Go back and look at how many times Scathach posted. Once. Go back and look at the breadcrumbs that Scathach claimed. They’re more concrete.

@Captain Klutz: I have already said that I will follow your lead and vote for you. I’m going to stick to that. But I think my case is pretty clear here. I would ask that you place your vote on hawkeye, and I will follow.

67

Heh. With you. Voting for you would be counterproductive.

68

I said mostly. I stayed out of the early Patsy claim discussion. When we reached the late days, I was more aggressive in pushing against a mass claim, because I thought it was against the best interest of town. That included posts on the Patsy, but I was against other town roles claiming as well.

69

@Captain Klutz.

There’s another option if you agree with my analysis. We lynch Biotop toDay.

Tomorrow, we’ll be able to choose between the patsy and the remaining mafia. So long as Koldanar decides to not give the game to mafia, we are guaranteed the victory.

If we’re right about Biotop being scum, at any rate.

Hawkeyeop should be on board with this plan since he also believes Biotop is most likely to be scum. What do you think, Hawkeye?

70

****Moderator question: are day orders resolved before, after, or simultaneously with the lynch?

71

It’s only been the past day or two, but you’re rapidly shifting to pro-town in my mind. Of course, this being Mafia, it’s entirely possible for a prolific poster to manipulate things.

That being said, you’ve been reasoning fairly well, and standing pro-town during this time. Right now, barring anything, I equally support the lynch of either one Patsy claimant, or Biotop.

I’m looking at my VT list, and all that’s really left, as we all know, is You, Bio, and Plum. Plum has seemed fairly absent, this day, while Bio is seeming scummy. I’ve had my issues with your play, but the last 2 or 3 days taken in isolation have a distinct pro-town lean for you.

Again, I will also state I DO NOT SUPPORT THE MAFIA’S BLACKMAILING OF ME. So, I may die myself at the end of the day.

72

I think if we are wrong on Biotop it would be messy. We could end up with a situation with no confirmed townies, two claimed patsies, one additional scum, and no one who town could trust and follow.

73

Yeah, sorry for that. Exam/presentation tomorrow.

74

I’m not even a little surprised that you don’t like the idea. :slight_smile:

It would be messy if wrong, yes. It would put us directly into a LyLo that likely also depends on the cult* helping us win not only by refusing to redirect the patsy, but also by voting with town.

However, the reward if a scum Biotop is lynched today is a **guaranteed **win provided Koldanar stays out of town business as he’s said he will.

More risk, but the ultimate reward.

Plus, here’s the thing. If we lynch the patsy today and the revenge kill goes off properly, we still start tomorrow down two confirmed players (be the second one cult or Klutz). And we’d still have to pick out the scum from a pool of four players. If we lynch the fake patsy today, we’re in a much better spot but still have to lynch into a pool of four.

Now you, purportedly town, know for a fact that Scatach must be scum. But the rest of us have reasonable doubts.

So from my perspective as a VT townie, the odds are looking like this:

If we lynch for the fake patsy, there’s a 50% chance of being in a bad spot and a 50% chance of being in a pretty good spot.

If we lynch for the fake VT, there’s a 66% chance of being in a *really *bad spot and a 33% chance of winning the game outright.

I kind of like those odds.

*cult, I’m not trying to alienate you guys at this point, but I don’t like to leave variables unmentioned.

75

Maybe from your perspective if you are town, but from mine it is 75% chance of a really bad spot. And since if we lynch either Patsy candidate we will only have 1 scum going into Day 13, I don’t really consider that a bad spot.

That said, I’m willing to wait to hear what Captain Klutz thinks of the plan, and won’t work against him if he ultimate decides to go for it.

76

Sorry! I didn’t realise Day had started early.

Catching up now and will post as I go.

77

Day actions can not be circumvented by the lynch. But the Day only ends the once. Does that make sense?

78

To be honest you guys are all coming up with better ideas than I am for the patsy debacle. Imagine my surprise when I logged in to find not one, but two people were claiming my role.

The only thing that makes sense to me is that scum were looking to buy themselves another day for some reason. And then hawkeyeop claming followed by the texcat counterclaim would get at least get some townie points for hawkeyeop before the final patsy claim who was inevitably going to look worse by being the last (lucky me eh?). I mean, tbh, that doesn’t make much sense as a scum ploy to me (especially because it does only buy another day), but it makes even less sense that I’d try to come charging in (to what? save Texcat? she was a foregone conclusion at that point) false claiming patsy a day late and a dollar short.

79

Well originally I thought I was the only power remaining (i.e. the killed if lynched thing) so I thought I could rely on my super powers of always coming under suspicion and getting lynched, claim when under pressure and then if I got lynched anyway use my counterkill on someone on my bandwagon.

As you can see that worked out brilliantly.

Later in the game though I was getting cold feet - I quoted the posts in my claim but to recap, I started canvassing for a claim. No one really seemed to be going for it though so I sat tight.

80

Also, I dunno if this will convince anyone, but I did explicitly claim Town over LUTHA in like D7 as well which I don’t think would make sense to do as scum.