And obviously, vote hawkeyeop
I was pushing for a mass claim in the late game because it seemed obviously pro town given that there were no real power roles left and a mass claim meant there was less places to hide since this is a fully open game (apart from third parties).
Okay, that makes sense. But it means their plan has very long odds against working. Not only does the Patsy have to be mislynched, even though lutha doesn’t know who it is, but lutha then need to agree to the redirect.
Alternatively (if not for the double false claim), we would now be looking at 4 confirmed non scum and 5 unknowns, that include 2 hidden scum. To me, that looks like better odds. Still mafia thought otherwise
In your claim, you said
You knew the wolves were gone at the start of the Day. You then waited a full 2 days before claiming. Did it really take you that long to “do the math do figure out if their was any scenario in which a surprise Patsy could be useful”? Oh, and I would like to see your working.
To clarify:
Day 9 Hawkeye #36 - Hawkeyeop said “The remaining Mason and Patsy have no particular value to town other than they can mostly self-confirm”
Day 9 Hawkeye #197 - that is actually #198
Day 9 Biotop #276 - he actually said “We can know Lightfoot is telling the truth if she simply claims her exact role. I already feel pretty good about her. But there is no advantage I can see to not fully claiming now. Why would Scum care whether she is Patsy or ZI? What possible Scum power is left to block?”
This is a fair bit different to “no advantage whatsoever to a full claim right now.”
Also, include
Day 9 Biotop #224 - “Our roles are the last piece of information we have that Scum does not have. Why are we giving them away for little benefit?”
Johnny, I’m a bit concerned that your summary of Day 9 Biotop #276 was incorrect. How did you summarise it so badly?
Those posts where you were canvassing for a claim were way back on Day 7. Many players continued to push for a claim through subsequent Days, and all the other power roles claimed. Why did you still hold back?
Where in the late game were you pushing for a mass claim?
No, it took me that long to have time to write up a post summarize my game-play . I didn’t keep the work, but basically I was trying to game out scenarios where the Lutha joined the mafia and voted for town members during the day to figure out if there was any situation where a patsy revenge kill would make a difference. I couldn’t find any.
Eh, it was an awful lot of skimming to paraphrase. Looks like I glossed over the “not.” You’re right, he’s saying there that there is no advantage to NOT claiming.
So I’m glad you caught my mistake, because this is really weird in context.
In D9#276, he says there’s no advantage to not claiming.
But in D9#224 (good catch), D9#273, and D10#152, he’s against claims.
The inconsistency here just bolsters my argument.
Was that not the late game? I was always pro mass claim, what is late game to you?
:dubious::dubious::dubious::dubious::dubious::dubious::dubious::dubious:
^------- this is a link to my post - D11#11. In that post, I worked out the math for a situation where lutha would join the mafia, vote for town, and how the patsy kill could lose the game for us.
It’s the one that started with “dear patsy.”
Which means it was addressed to you.
Except that you spent two days trying to come up with ways that the patsy revenge kill could effect town if lutha joined mafia and couldn’t come up with anything?
Your first post in the day was D11#16. Five posts after mine.
I know you’re going to say that you were looking for cases where a “surprise patsy would be useful,” but that’s not what you’re saying up in the quoted bit.
See hawkeye, here’s the thing.
You have, at multiple points through the game, promised to do analysis and have rarely had anything to show for it. I called you out on at least one occasion because you smudged me and I wanted you to show your work. It was when you said that you wanted to look at me (and others) because I was posting a bunch but hadn’t been killed. I encouraged you to look into me. You never did. You did eventually do some analysis on one high-volume player, but only after I called you out again.
Now you’re claiming to have done a bunch of work, but you have nothing to show for it either.
Promising to do analysis and then not following through is a scum tell. Yes, people get busy, but it’s still a scum tell.
Saying that you’ve done work and not having anything to show is a scum tell.
Forgetting that somebody addressed a post directly to you wherein they did analysis that you supposedly spent several days working on? Scum tell.
And despite the fact that you’re totally content, as the patsy, with being lynched today and revenge-killing Scathach, you’ve yet to make a pre-mortem case against who you think the final scum will be. Just a vague leaning for Biotop but not strong enough to consider lynching him today.
vote hawkeyeop
@Captain Klutz: I will change my vote if you tell me to, but enough is too much.
D10#22 - “the patsy would be an idiot to claim right now. The only power left is the kill if lynched.”
This does not make Johnny Bravo happy, seeing as how he is vigorously defending you via the transitive(?) property.
Scathach, I also don’t recall you ever being pro-mass claim. Would you please point to the post(s) I am missing.
Also, would you kindly explain why you have not posted since Sunday despite the obvious confusion we were having determining the validity of your counterclaim.
In post Day 9, #276 I was specifically talking about** Lightfoot**.
**Lightfoot **had already claimed one of the two remaining power roles. She was either Zoning Inspector or Patsy. In post Day 9 #275, **Captain Klutz **argues that we do not know for sure whether to believe **Lightfoot **or not. It was up to the other power to claim, and if then there was a third claim we would know one of them was lying. Otherwise the two claims would verify each other.
I was opposed to mass claim because I believed it gave a road map for Scum to kill Town power. If a power was in danger of mislynch they could then simply claim and prevent the mislynch. Otherwise, what was the advantage?
But at this point Lightfoot’s partial claim did not seem likely to be false, and her making a full claim would prevent the other power from having to claim as was being asked. If Lightfoot was indeed lying, her full claim could be countered without revealing both other powers. Better for her to go ahead and full claim.
**Lightfoot ** outed herself as a Town power role and was that night killed for it. She had been confirmed as non-Mafia. She had not disclosed her full role. But the wolves killed her anyway.
Plumpudding, it’s great that you think I’m such a skilled analytical player. I indeed do enjoy in-depth analysis and wringing my hands over votes. That’s much of the fun of this game for me.
But there is this thing called “real life” that’s about job and family and friends and personal issues. Real life has a way of interfering with Mafia play, especially in a game of this size. I have tried to post something in every real day of this game. I missed a few, but I tried.
You and **Johnny Bravo **have seen fit to build a case against me, not for my play in this game, but instead because I was highly analytical in other games, both as Scum and Town. You cannot both be Mafia, so one of you really believes it. If **raventhief **is Scum then you both believe it. And that seems unlikely.
You know what else I like about raventhief? She volunteered to go in with me to diffuse the possible **Cookies **bomb. That would be a surprising play for a relative Mafia newcomer in this large game with her supposedly playing her first time as Scum. If she did it kudos to her.
Yes, I was a bit surprised to still be alive. Being completely wrong is a possibility, as I have a history of being 100% certain while also being wrong. But there is another side to this coin. Perhaps the question is, not why was I left alive, but why was MHaye killed? At the end of Day 10, he made this observation:
Note where he says that Johnny has been discussing Mafia data and talked about how there are two Mafiate votes unaccounted for, when there are actually three Mafia. Johnny’s reply was as follows:
So this seems to be both a typo AND a case of miscounting.
Ditto what Biotop asked.
Day 10 was certainly later in the game. This is what you said on Day 10:
To me, that does not look pro mass claim.
If we lynch scum toDay it is basically game over: we will be down to just one scum and have an extra confirmed town. That gives us lots of time to lynch through the unknowns. Lynching scum toDay is a town/lutha win.
It has been suggested that we lynch Biotop toDay. We have to eventually lynch ito that pool anyway, so why not do it now? His alignment gives us info as to who is the Patsy: if Biotop is scum then it is very likely that hawkeyop is scum. So if we lynch him and he is scum, we get an immediate win. However, there is a big downside: if he is town then we have used up one mislynch (likely the only mislynch that we can afford). It means that Scathach is probably scum, but the final scum is still hidden. The game is still in the balance. So lynching Biotop is off the table.
That leaves us with lynching either Scathach or hawkeyop. Again, lynching scum leads to a town/lutha win, so look at it the other way: what are the consequences of a mislynch?
First, I agree that, if hawkeyop is scum, then Biotop is the last scum. I think the converse is also true: if hawkeyop is town, then Biotop is town.
Case 1: hawkeyop is mislynched
In this case we have used up our mislynch. We do still have an exposed scum, but the other one is still hidden. It is almost certainly going to be either JohnnyBravo or Plumpudding, but getting it wrong costs us the game.
Case 2: Scathach is mislynched
In this case we know that hawkeyop is scum, and therefore that Biotop is also scum. So while we cannot afford a mislynch, both scum are known.
So there it is: lynching Scathach leads to a town/lutha win, even if it a mislynch.
Comments welcome.
**I know Day ends at WEDNESDAY AT 5PM. However, I don’t know when that is.
I believe it is about 14 hours from the time of this post. Is that correct?**
Looks to me like that post was at about 4am. That makes it 14 hours. It’s 26 hours after the traditional deadline.