For my next trick, I want to talk about the conversation that happened at the very end of the Day. I think. I’m still unsure whether the hammer locked out the orders or not but it doesn’t really matter. It started here.
I demurred to answer because I wasn’t sure if mafia was still talking over their order and I didn’t want to influence anything. In particular, I was worried until the very end about what Koldanar would decide (sorry Koldanar) and I was pretty confident that we were about to lynch the patsy. But anyway, I didn’t answer and Biotop posted this:
I’ve already posted my thoughts on this little gem, but I’ll summarize. The accusation that I hadn’t considered the possibility that Scathach was the patsy is frankly astonishing since it’s what I spent my whole day doing. I pointed that out, but Biotop never responded. He actually ignored a number of my posts yesterday, preferring to talk to Plumpudding.
Plumpudding asks what, exactly, the dilemma is.
This is such a weird post. It’s this huge pile of WIFOM for a situation that likely could not be changed.
It’s also wrong. Look at this part again.
See, I did put thought into this answer. Lots of thought. Before yesterday’s lynch, our numbers were 5-2-2. In a situation where Koldanar redirects the patsy lynch to Klutz and mafia also put in a Klutz kill order, today would have started 3-2-2. Scum+Lutha now outnumber town. Badabing, as they say.
How did Biotop get that so wrong? Because he wasn’t actually concerned about Scathach being the patsy. He knew what the lynch outcome would be. He just wanted to create some kind of analysis.
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Here’s the really, really weird thing. Why did mafia kill Koldanar? Warning: WIFOM ahead.
Mafia knew they were losing Scathach. There was no way around that. They also knew (or at least suspected) that Koldanar wasn’t going along with the plan. But that doesn’t mean that they couldn’t still try to engineer a situation where it would be tempting for cult to turn on town. Killing either Hawkeye or Klutz would have started the day at 4-2-1. One mislynch would have brought us to 2-2-1 - back into territory where the cult could be useful again.
By killing Koldanar, they effectively handed control of the game back to town and removed even the slimmest possibility that cult would flip to their side. This isn’t the real mafia where they have to break kneecaps to prove points.
They also happened to take out the confirmed player with the strongest anti-Biotop lean.