Mafia Reunion Day 13

[Captain_Klutz]

Biotop, you are putting up a very good defence. You have suggested that the “Dear Patsy” letter was actually a message to Koldanar, showing that, by redirecting the Patsy revenge kill, lutha could win with mafia. This is an interesting idea.

Any plan had a major unknown factor: when would the real Patsy claim? Note that, on Day 11 when it all went down, TexCat was looking very likely to be lynched, and indeed picked up a bunch of early votes. Nothing happened until Hawkeyop claimed, so that was the catalyst to put the plan into action.

The “Dear Patsy” letter was posted early on that Day. Koldanar was then aware of the possibility of swinging the game and winning with mafia.

TexCat was going to be that Day’s likely lynch, so the plan was, when the Patsy claimed, then TexCat could counter and hope for a mislynch. If she was not believed then another scum would also counter, to set up the showdown for the next Day. Texcat then issued her ultimatum to lutha. This was needed for 2 reasons: to remind Koldanar what to do, but also to let him know that this was NOT a mislynch, so do not use up your redirect ability toDay.

However, if the “Dear Patsy” letter was a message to Koldanar, why tell him again? Indeed, why issue an ultimatum? Why tell everyone else about the redirection plan, when you have already told the one person who needs to know? Clearly, to make sure he knew what to do. So the “Dear Patsy” message was never needed.
But, look at this from Koldanar’s point of view: did he understand the implications of the “Dear Patsy” letter? If so, what should he do to say that he understood? The letter could have been a genuine plea to the Patsy, but if it’s a subtle suggestion to Koldanar then Johnny must be scum. Koldanar doesn’t know for sure, but he does make an interesting post in #42

@Koldanar

Originally Posted by Johnny Bravo
One more thing, Texcat:

Why are you concerned about giving information to Mafia at this point? They’re all that’s left. They now know the alignment of every player in the game. From their perspective, what’s the difference between a VT, the patsy, and the remaining two power roles?

The only reason for the patsy to not claim at this point is if you would advocate that the patsy should allow themselves to be lynched so that they can use their power. That would be horrendously anti-town because it would, if they blew up a VT with the vengeance kill, result in us losing the game the next Day, as Mafia+Cult would outnumber all remaining town.

I think you’re continuing to advocate that the patsy not claim because you don’t want the scum pool to shrink. I also think you’re continuing to advocate that the patsy not claim because you’re hoping that the patsy will let themselves get lynched and potentially kill another townie. I think you see “no point” in claiming VT because you see no point in providing information to town.

So I’ll start here.

vote Texcat

Johnny, look, I agree with you!

If the patsy would claim at this point, that would be great. Using your power isn’t too great an idea at this point - generally, we will get a small consensus on who is acting / being scummy at this point in the game, so even though your odds of hitting a mafia may be around 50% or so (let me look back at the math), I do believe at this point we can do better than that with a vote. Losing another townie to a patsy kill can only improve things for the mafia at this point.

He says “Johnny, look, I agree with you!”

If Johnny actually was scum then this really looks like it would be interpreted as “Message received and understood”. So, if Johnny is scum then they now know that Koldanar is on board. TexCat can do a “Bah, go scum” to let him know not to use his redirect this time, and then they can surprise town the next Day. But no, they told him (and now everyone else) what to do. Again. After his acknowledgement.
So the idea that the “Dear Patsy” letter as a message to Koldanar does not work. The timing of the letter, at the start of Day 11, looks right, as with the end of the wolves there was now a danger of a lutha/mafia alliance. So I can’t see the “Dear Patsy” letter as other than what it said it was.

So, confirming my vote for Biotop.

(But if he flips town it is definitely Johnny Bravo toMorrow)