Klutz, that’s a good post, but I’ma stop you there.
If this shit goes down like the bufftabby lynch I am going to policy vote you in any game we ever play in together from here out.
“Oh good catch, Captain Klutz! You cracked the case! Nobody else has posted anything of value about why bufftabby could be scum!”
Just a random bit of observation about the case against Biotop- I actually had a similar thought about offering myself up as a target for redirection. I kept my mouth shut, because I figured Koldenar wouldn’t go along anyway.
I’m still on my phone- will fire up the computer here shortly, but i noticed this.
Day 11-
Texcat(10): JohnnyBravo(10), Biotop(13), Plumpudding(14), Raventhief(15),
All four of us voted, one right after the other.
No, i don’t think it means anything profound, just caught my attention.
I started this last night, but it got too late:
Now I will defend myself against the abridged case against me, starting with the accusations in Johnny Bravo’s case against me as summed up in Post 21 .
I was overly optimistic about Town’s chances on Day 9 when I declared Town was almost sure to win: Guilty. I was looking at individual Scum team totals and did not imagine what was to come. Who could? We had something like 15 players left at the time, with only 3 Mafia and only 2 wolves left. We had just lynched bufftabby. My post was dumb, but why Scummy?
I was scheming Scum in a game he moderated: Guilty. What does that meta have to do with this game? No one else hatches schemes in Mafia? There were a lot of fun Reunion stories back early in the game that suggest otherwise.
He says we “hashed to death” how Cult might be dangerous to Town in certain situations and I remained clueless about it: Not Guilty. My recollection of discussions is that a few players such as Johnny Bravo got all worked up over Lutha, but most of Town wasn’t overly concerned. I don’t recall anyone posting about Lutha being possibly blackmailed. Instead, Lutha seemed to be actively supporting Town and most of us saw them pretty early as harmless. Please point to all the posts where it was “hashed to death” about dire results and most players were alarmed. I saw Lutha as harmless, even when it seemed later they were being recruited… by Johnny Bravo.
Johnny claims I switched my feelings on him about being “Towny” for no reason: Not Guilty. Return now to Day 10. I have been defending Johnny Bravo, because he does post lots of thoughtful analysis in a compelling way. I have also spent much of Days 8, 9, and 10 trying to get someone to listen to me about Zeriel. Yay they finally were! At some point, however, I was rereading the Day and found this post. The gist of it is that because wolves had not killed him, JB could not be Mafia. But weirdly he also claims Hal Briston was killed by wolves and takes it as a given. I was still caught up in my 3 day long argument to lynch Zeriel, but this gave me pause. Could it be some kind of Scum slip? So I asked him about it in post 107. I get an “aw shucks I goofed” kind of response. OK, this bugged me but I filed it away and went back to worrying about the more pressing cases of Zeriel and TexCat .
Now we go to Day 11. Nanook is gone and so are the wolves. TexCat looks to be a good lynch and JB has already voted for her when he posts his open letter to the Patsy . Please read this. In this open letter he actually seems to be trying to recruit Lutha. Read it, especially now in the context of what would later occur. The comments to Lutha are out of place in a letter asking for the Patsy to claim. Yet there they are, coincidentally posted just before Hawkeyeop would innocently claim, TexCat would counter, and the whole Patsy mess would appear.
In my response I ask Johnny why Lutha would join Mafia when they had been playing for Town . I didn’t get it. Johnny Bravo, who responds to everything, ignored my question.
This really bothers me. I don’t really want to post about the merit of Lutha switching sides. Why should they? What’s going on?
Johnny Bravo says I forgot I had supported him, so that’s why I suddenly changed my opinion of him. Bologna! Here’s my post . Johnny Bravo doesn’t ask me why I changed my mind. He concentrates on my words about not being killed. We bicker up through post #40. In post 43 Hawkeyeop claims and the s**t hits the fan.
Johnny Bravo says my voting record is Scummy but offers no concrete examples. Not Guilty. I will be happy to defend my vote record, which I think has been fairly decent this game.
He doesn’t buy my confusion in a game that has been very confusing, because… More meta-crap. Guilty of being Scum in other games, but whatever.
He doesn’t like my Patsy redirect scheme. I defended that above. I did not need to redirect the Patsy to me so that Mafia would win. If Koldanar was going to follow orders he would redirect onto Captain Klutz. If not then he would not redirect at all. Mafia actually didn’t need to Day kill anyone themselves. With a Town mislynch, if Koldanar followed orders Scum won. If he did not, the false Patsy died. Scum lost. It actually does not matter who Mafia kills. If Koldanar does as directed, they win. What Mafia needs, desperately, is the mislynch and Koldanar’s cooperation. Nothing else.
He says that if I am Scum I knew who the Patsy was on Day nine. Not Guilty. Please tell me how. TexCat somehow knew too. That means we would both not want the Patsy to claim. Or something. I do not understand this but it is 3:30 in the morning so maybe I am just punchy.
I changed my mind finally on the Patsy reveal. Guilty. Why not? Wolves were all dead. All Scum now really did now know who was whom on Day 11. I revealed vanilla Town as well at this point.
I have a busy life. Guilty. I am sorry that Scum sometimes use that as a defense. Should people with active lives not play? I wish I had all day every day until Monday to keep defending myself and looking for the last Scum. Being right is fun to post, even if no one listens. But alas job, bills, responsibilities etc.
But more coming. I will continue defending myself up and until the mislynch or until someone listens, but I am out of time right now. A Scum tell I guess. :smack:
But I will say this: if **Johnny Bravo ** the claimed vanilla who pushed to lynch the real Patsy yesterDay actually manages to convince everyone to vote for me, the claimed vanilla who pushed killing the false Patsy yesterDay— then Mafia deserve to win.
The correct link to where I finally wake up and start posting suspicion of **Johnny Bravo **. This is just after the Open Letter to the Patsy, and just before **hawkeyeop **innocently responds to that letter. I acknowledge my earlier Town leans he says I forgot.
Here again is Johnny’s Patsy letter. This is early Day 11. The Scum need several things to happen for their Patsy gambit:
A Mafia must be about to be lynched to deliver the threat. No problem. TexCat was already probably going down.
The real Patsy must claim so TexCat can counterclaim.
Lutha must be convinced it is in their best interest to switch sides.
No one not involved could see what was coming. Yet **Johnny Bravo **posted this:
######Posted by **Johnny Bravo **:
Dear Patsy,
These are the current numbers:
3 claimable town (Mhaye, Captain Klutz, and you)
3 Vanilla Town
2 cult (Koldanar and sinjin)
3 mafia
I do not know whether you are figuring that you might use your power if you get lynched, but consider what happens if you do and you choose incorrectly. We lose you to the lynch. We lose a VT with your response kill. Mafia uses their kill on a claimed role (let’s say MHaye for the sake of argument).
That means that toMorrow, we would start like this:
Day 12
1 claimed town (Captain Klutz)
2 Vanilla town
2 cultists
3 Mafia
That’s game. The cultists throw in with Mafia (of course they do - their win condition lets them win with anyone) and they have five votes against three town. Cult: I’m not trying to fearmonger against you guys - I’m assuming that you two would play to win. I would in your shoes.
Even if Mafia didn’t try for that strategy, town would have to lynch successfully every day from then on. With a successful lynch, the following Day would start like this:
Day 13
Claimed town: 0
Vanilla town: 2
Cult: 2
Mafia: 2
Then like this:
Day 14
Claimed town: 0
Vanilla town: 1
Cult: 2
Mafia: 1
And then, finally, like this:
Day 15
Claimed town: 0
Vanilla town: 0
Cult: 2
Mafia:0
That’s a town victory. It would require three successful lynches in a row , and that assumes two cultists who decide to stretch the game out for three additional weeks of play rather than simply win the game. Also note that, starting on Day 14, the cultists determine the lynch. And they don’t care who dies at that point so long as it’s not one of them.
So please, if you agree that your power has the potential to lose the game for town, then consider that you’re better off claiming and helping us focus on finding mafia. Even if you think I’m scum, look at the numbers and decide for yourself.
And now I am going to be late for work. Sigh. They aren’t too fond of my lack of participation there either.
Yay! I’ll take your post by the numbers.
It’s not just that you were being overly optimistic. It’s that you were saying town had the victory locked up, but that if the remaining power roles claimed it might throw the game to scum. It’s been established that both Texcat and Scathach were against claims. This means that your opinion in this case lines up with scum strategy.
I’ve corrected you on this before. My comment was not that you are “scheming scum.” My comment is that you are an extremely clever player and that I do not believe your confusion. This is a difference, because what I am doing is complimenting your play and what you are doing is trying to make it sound like I’m smudging you.
Why do I need to point out where players were alarmed? That has nothing to do with what I was saying there - you’re erecting goalposts way outside the field. I made post after post after post about how LUTHA could be dangerous. Quite a few players spent quite a bit of time arguing with me about it. If you don’t consider that to be “hashing out,” then we may have different definitions.
Why didn’t I respond to your question about why LUTHA would switch sides? Because it was a question that I’d answered again and again and again and again. I’ve probably spent more time talking about how LUTHA could be dangerous than I have about any other singular topic. By this point I knew that our win had very good odds of riding on LUTHA’s goodwill and I was done antagonizing them. I’ve mentioned that at least once before. Hence my aside to them in the note to the patsy.
Meanwhile, I never said you forgot that you found me townie. I said you forgot that I was your strongest town lean. Big difference.
I’m going to address my “dear patsy” letter in another post since I see on preview that you’ve copied it.
This will require its own analysis.
Already addressed this in #2.
This has already been addressed by Koldanar better than I could.
This is straightforward reasoning based on the claimant/nonclaimant pools, though I’m currently doing it from memory. Somebody can go back to my original post if they’d like to double check.
When raventhief claimed, the only players remaining in the unconfirmed pool were [Biotop/Scathach/Texcat/Hawkeyeop]. This means that, if you are scum, the identity of the patsy (provided the patsy didn’t false claim) was confirmed to them as soon as the raventhief claim happened.
But that’s not why you said you changed your mind. If that was your reason, why not say so at the time?
I believe that you are busy, 100%. Excuses are still a scum tell. They’ll always be a scum tell. If I say “hey guys, my sister just called and I have to drive to Virginia, won’t be posting for a while” and then fall off the game altogether, that would be a scum tell. That’s why it’s called a tell - they’re indicators. Not outright determinations. They’re a single data point.
This is the scummiest thing you’ve said all day. You’ve still yet to show any way that my case on hawkeyeop was disingenuous.
I’m with Biotop here. Being on the other end of the barrage yesterday, it is very difficult and frustrating to respond to your post everything and see what sticks approached.
That said, I don’t think Johnny Bravo is the last scum in part due to how much effort he is still putting into this game. That is a lot of time and energy for a scum who probably doesn’t have much of a shot at this point. I also don’t think a the last scum would be that forcefully wrong about me. I didn’t find anti-town when I analyzed Raventhief which leaves Biotop and Plumpudding. Biotop supported me and Plumpudding was fairly passively against, and I could see a scum doing either.
It’s going to take me a bit to sit down and go into the letter, but here’s the difference between you and me right now.
If town decides to lynch me toDay, I would smile all the way to the gallows. Because, unless there is another third party who might steal the win, the game would roll right along tomorrow and I’m pretty confident they’d turn around and lynch you.
You just let off an amazingly desperate vibe. If town lynches me, they deserve to lose!
On the other hand, if town lynches me… they get to try again tomorrow. And my case will look even stronger post-mortem than it does now.
The game doesn’t end if I get lynched because I’m town. The game doesn’t end if you get lynched because you’re town.
Right?
This one is pretty easy, by the way. I suppose I could have looked more closely at the time, but I’ve only just now gotten around to checking back on the kill record.
Presume that I am in fact mafia. How do I know that Hal Briston was killed by wolves? By the time Hal died, the mafia Informant and Consigliere were already dead. Do you have reason to believe that the mook (me, if I’m scum) would have burned his one-shot copy power to watch Hal Briston on that night?
Even if I’m mafia, there’s no reasonable way to read that as a PIS. Just a regular typo.
I get verbose when I get excited. I get excited when I think I’m proving something. Hell, I’m still proud of the case I built against you yesterday. I think it continues to hold up logically - it’s just that my base premise (hawkeye’s claim timing is not genuine) was wrong. It happens.
Anyway, I wrote up what I thought was a pretty compact analysis of Biotop’s “dear patsy” case and it’s 650 words long. And I could probably write more.
So I’ll hold onto it for now - if anybody who isn’t Biotop would like me to address it in part or in whole, I’ll post the monster.
I’d say go ahead and post it, Johnny.
Anyway, I’ve gone through all of Biotop’s and Raventooth’s posts so far in the game. Raventhief I feel good about.
I still think Biotop is the last scum, but I’m gonna read Johnny Bravo’s before I decide. Fair shake and all that.
Shit, somebody called my bluff! I’ll copy/paste it soon - I’m super busy. Definitely not that because I have to write the whole thing.
Here we go. I managed to only add another hundred words or so since earlier today.
Spoilered for your pleasure.
[spoiler]One more spoiler to satisfy the two-click rule. [spoiler]./So my initial thought was to laugh off the patsy letter claim, but after reading Biotop’s repost I think it’s a decent case.
What? Is that a confession? Of course not - Klutz’s post is an even better case. I think my case against hawkeye yesterday was a good one, too. That’s just how this game works - sometimes a good case is a still a wrongheaded one.
The game is full of wrongheaded cases, and town are much more likely than scum to make them because, to town, everybody is a suspect. Scum start with a smaller pool of unknowns. I’m VT - every-goddamned-body is a target.
All VT cases start from the same point. “I suspect that this person is scum. How can I prove it?”
All scum cases (at least in a game with one faction) start from the same point. “I know that this person is not scum. How can I make everyone else think they are?”
So - there’s a difference between a wrongheaded townie case and a disingenuous scummy one. Let’s decide what Biotop’s is.
I started another of my enormous writeups going through every facet of what Biotop’s scenario (scum Johnny tried to draw out hawkeye) would look like, but I’m trying to be a little less verbose for y’all.
Why do I think this case is bad?
For one, it’s a little convenient. Nothing in that letter was out of character for my play this game. I’d been pushing for claims for a while. So had a lot of other folks, including confirmed town. And he still wasn’t claiming. It wasn’t reasonable to expect that the real patsy would be claiming any time soon.
The plan requires that I be the one to convince the patsy to claim. Let’s be honest, I wasn’t convincing the patsy to do jack. Hawkeye has already confirmed that - my urging was one of the reasons he kept shut up. That’s WHY I wrote the letter the way I did. I felt like I wasn’t getting through, and I didn’t expect that one to do any better.
There’s something else, though. If Biotop is town, then mafia knows that the patsy is either Biotop or hawkeye, since biotop didn’t claim VT until after I posted that letter. That means the plan hinges on me somehow convincing Biotop (who has been urging the patsy not to claim) or hawkeye (who has been urging the patsy not to claim) to claim. Does that seem workable? Town Johnny urging the patsy to claim is just banging his head against the wall - something I’ve been doing all game. Scum Johnny trying to set a plan into motion by convincing EITHER of these players to claim is less believable.
The plan requires that I play the “good cop” by sneaking an offer to LUTHA before Texcat drops the blackmail lever. I’m sorry, but this is the silliest thing of all. The only reason I believe that LUTHA never had a kill power is because I would’ve been over in the spoiled thread long ago. I’ve been riding their collective jocks all game long.
The plan requires that I be the one to convince town to lynch the patsy. How? By convincing everyone that mafia had been planning this all along, with the intention of forcing the real patsy to claim and then obscuring it with two false claims. In other words, Biotop is painting me like a murderer who hangs around a crime scene so that he can tell the cops exactly how the crime went down. Also, let’s not forget that my entire push to lynch hawkeye was prefaced with an important caveat:
I made it clear from the beginning that I valued town voting together (and preventing even the possibility of cult/mafia shenanigans) more than I valued my own case gaining traction. A weird move for a player who has supposedly been tasked with convincing town to vote for hawkeye.
My case against Hawkeye started from a single point: I did not believe the timing of his claim. I spiraled out from there and made other connections and inferences based on where the initial thought led me. The proof of this is that the bulk of my case against Biotop did not crumble when Scathach flipped scum. My observations were honest.
Biotop’s case is different. Its premise is this:
“I’m under suspicion. I need to get a case on Johnny Bravo. How can I do that?”[/spoiler][/spoiler]
Really?
**Johnny Bravo **posted an outline of the three Patsy plan in his letter pleading for the Patsy to claim. In the same letter he tells the remaining LUTHA that switching to help Scum in the right circumstances is in the best interest of Lutha. He understands. It is what he would do himself.
He wants us to believe this was just a coincidence.
The real Patsy finally responds and the whole three-Patsy scheme is put into motion. TexCat claims, threatens and is lynched.
The next Day **Johnny Bravo ** says he will support Captain Klutz, but he makes the same kind of vociferous page-lengthening type of case against **Hawkeyeop **that he now makes against me. If **Captain Klutz **had listened to his case, Town would have lost. I supported instead the lynch of **Scathach **.
Now **Johnny Bravo **wants you all to lynch me. When I express deep amazed frustration that anyone would buy what he is selling toDay, he turns my words and common sense against me.
I am pretty darn sure he is the last Scum. ToMorrow after my mislynch he will try and make a case against one of the remaining vanilla Town players. I worry he will succeed. So I will call his bluff.
**Johnny Bravo **says he would go to the gallows smiling today because he knows I am a the real Scum and will die toMorrow. I do not believe him so I will make this promise:
**Promise **:
If we lynch **Johnny Bravo **toDay and he flips Town, I promise I will make no attempt to stop my lynch toMorrow. I will even vote for myself. Those who want to kill me can have their wish. Think I am Scum? Great, I will die. But lynch **Johnny Bravo **toDay. I bet he will not put his money where his mouth is and agree to this.
**Vote Johnny Bravo **
Biotop, I said I will smile all the way to the gallows if town decides to lynch me, but I don’t think you’re town. I certainly didn’t offer myself up as a ritual sacrifice. So I don’t feel compelled to agree with your latest attempt to get me killed, clever though it is. But yes, if all the rest of the players vote for me at this point I won’t lose too much sleep over it, so long as they’re doing it because they’re playing their best games.
Meanwhile, you’re once again proposing an antitown plan, just like when you told koldanar to kill you. Let’s just go ahead and presume for a moment that we’re both in fact town. I get lynched, and tomorrow you’ll voluntarily throw yourself on the fire? You’ll make NO attempt to stop it? No attempt to suss out whether raventhief or plumpudding is the last scum? You’ll vote yourself?
Either you’re lying for dramatic effect or you really don’t care about the town win.
Or you’re claiming to one hundred percent know my alignment and to one hundred percent know that the game will end if I get lynched. But at this point, only scum would know my alignment for certain.
But do you know what bugs me most of all? You know perfectly well that if you DO flip town my back will be so hard up against the wall that I’ll be halfway through it. I’ll almost certainly be lynched after going so hard at two townies in a row. So… why so desperate to live today? You got REALLY frustrated at the thought of being lynched.
So there’s just one more possibility. The possibility that the only thing you need to do is survive just one. More. Day.
Could I be completely off base?
Are you the reason for the delay last dusk?
I’ll tell you what, though. If you do flip town (and I acknowledge that as a possibility), you’re darned right that I’ll fight all day tomorrow against my lynch. I’ll put out plenty of data to help the remaining players figure out who the real scum is for after I’m gone, because they’ll get just one more shot and I want town to win. That’s what town does. You know that very, very well. I would expect a townie Biotop to do no less, and maybe even more.
So sure, since you’ve fired the first shot and since cases have been made:
vote Biotop
[QUOTE=Bioto]
This is just after the Open Letter to the Patsy, and just before **hawkeyeop **innocently responds to that letter.
[/QUOTE]
Hawkeye, do you agree with this characterization of your claim yesterDay?
Gee, why am I not surprised?
You are sure I am Scum. You post WOW’s that amount to finding anything I say scummy. I vote for the right Patsy early. I am Scummy. I defend myself against pages of spurious charges, I am Scummy. If I posted that the sky is blue and the grass is green, you **Johnny Bravo **would find it scummy.
I think you have proven my point about toMorrow. You are very good at being persuasive. I think the odds that you are Scum who can persuade others to follow you after my mislynch toMorrow are better than are the odds that either **Raventhief **or Plumpudding is actually the final Scum. My promise is pro-Town.
And now you want to blame the mod delay on me too? Unbelievable.
(boldng mine)
And I think you know very well Town would not have one more shot if they mislynch us both. Town would lose. I think my math is better now, as is my brain:
We have 7 players currently on Day 13. After I am mislynched we would be down to 5 players. Now let’s say you are also Town and get mislynched in Day 14. The surviving players would go into Day 15 with only 3 remaining. I am guessing that would consist of 1 Mafia, 1 Town, and 1 Lutha.
So who gets voted on the last Day. Just a lucky guess? Or does Scum claim and force Lutha to vote their way under penalty of the final Mafia Day kill? I am betting the latter.
That’s what I think your scheme is. You need two Town mislynches. The first is me. Then you “fight all day” and get another Townie lynched. That’s endgame. Mafia and Lutha win. Town loses.