ToDay, Biotop says that it’s “not bloody likely” that town holds two of the same town switch, and uses that as a datapoint for why his claim gives him big town cred.
On Day 2, he did not consider it a ludicrous idea. He didn’t weight the possibilities in any direction.
So we look back at the actual claims, and we only had two town players claim town switches at all - Biotop and brewha. There’s no evidence to support Biotop’s assertion that his Seward switch claim gives him town cred because we haven’t had enough data.
I’m not saying this is more proof that he’s scum. I am saying that it doesn’t give him more town cred.
ToDay he says that ‘it’s “not bloody likely” that town holds two of the same town switch’. This is based on the observation that no scum player has claimed a switch, and that no town player has claimed to hold the other Seward switch.
On Day 2 he evaluated both possibilities. Not surprising that no weight was given, as there was not much info. Why do you think he should have given more weight to one of the possibilities?
It should also be noted that one of the people who gave Biotop some grief over his switch was Guiri, in Day 4.463
He shouldn’t have. He was right to examine all the possibilities then. But we don’t have any more data about scum-held switches (except for Texcat) now than we did then. We barely have any data about town-held switches.
Since the data hasn’t appreciably changed, neither should our inferences.
The only way anybody would have data on scum-held switches is if they were scum themselves.
Anyway, day is over. Hopefully the game is over as well.
Cookies. I was thinking about Texcat’s “lol” comment later in that conversation and debating whether it was worth mentioning as a counterpoint to Guiri’s pokes at Biotop.