Mafia Reunion Day 5

[paulwhoisaghost]

@LightFoot

which tin foil theory is that?

Here is a spoiler hiding all of my posts regarding my theory.

@paulwhoisaghost

I’m pretty sure it fizzled out, really quickly, but he’s what I was thinking… I don’t think you are going to like it though.

This post didn’t sit right with me. I couldn’t figure out what about it bugged me at first, but it was the fact that Sach was explaining why he thought Sunny was a cultist. So then I thought, maybe Sach is explaining away a sticky situation… Here comes the tin foil part. It occured to me that if Sunny had breadcrumbed so early in the game and turned out to be scum, that severely undermines Sach’s own breadcrumbs. I thought it out and it made sense to me at the time. It would require that Crys, Sach, and Sunny are on the same scum team, so Mafia. These three and two others would breadcumb something related to the occult so that later if they thought it viable, they could claim cultist and hopefully escape the noose. Sunny got killed, and if anyone went back and found that breadcrumb it would be trouble for Sach and Crys. So I started to think the explanation was provided to distance Sach from Sunny. From there I started thinking that your idea about the cultists having a kill might have been you floating the idea in order for them to gain cover if they are seen by a watcher visiting someone who turns up dead, it would look bad, but doesn’t mean they aren’t non-winstealing 3P.

So yeah, I went down a twisted little rabbit hole there until I realized that Sunny had posted that before roles were sent out, so there is no way it could be a breadcrumb. I was gearing up to go look for more cult breadcrumbs when the confusion with SNF happened and that’s when I figured it out.

@paulwhoisaghost

I don’t think so… I think I understand you better than I did before.

Jeeze… Sunny even says Survivor in quotes in that post… I can see how that read breadcrumb. I’m about to embibe of the pipe… so i’ll put away the tin foil hat until I’m thinking clearly again.

@paulwhoisaghost

I see where you are coming from, but I disagree on a few points. If the vig and the wolves are all dead, there will be significantly fewer deaths each round and LYLO will slow down dramatically, not speed up.

You don’t seem to consider what a scum and cultists win would look like. In order for the cultists to win with scum there would have to be less cultists than scum remaining. Cultists only need 1 to survive according to their claim, but here’s where it gets tricky. Let’s suppose that we get no further scum kills until the total game is reduced to 3 wolves, 5 mafia, and 5 cultists. You are worried about them out numbering town and block voting. For that situation to occur there can be no more than 12 town, ignoring other 3P, that brings the game total to 25. Not too far away. Can either scum team win in that situation without killing the cultists? No.

So let’s say we pick off all the wolves, and there are 5 mafia, 5 cult, and 9 town. In this and only this situation, the scum can win without killing any cultists. That’s 19 players, and requires that no mafia or cultists die before getting there for it to work. Any loss from either side makes it harder for them to get to the point that they can block vote.

Run the actual numbers… the cultists working with the scum doesn’t work unless the scum kill off cultists, at this point with 5 mafia, they are equal in number to the cult and would have to kill everyone else to win without killing a cult member. I don’t find that likely to happen.

I’d like to point out that this sort of situation is why it is important for us to try to differentiate between likely wolf and likely mafia. We want them all dead, but there are several situations where it benefits us to kill one over the other. This is one of those situations.

I don’t think it likely that the cult wold attempt to work with the scum, but the best plan of action is to reduce the mafia and wolf numbers to a point that it wouldn’t make sense for them to work together. Wolves are already there, we need one more mafia and then they can’t win without killing a cultist.

Again, I say the cultists remain tabled until one more mafia dies and then they all claim.

**I still have a tin foil hat theory bouncing around my head that cultists are mafia and I want to see another mafia due before I am ready to dismiss it. In that crazy theory, the remaining mafia are Crys, Sach, SNF, Raventhief, and Prof. Of which the only one I think is likely still scum even if the theory is wrong, is Prof. **

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@paulwhoisaghost

Spoiler added by me to keep quote small.

I’m convinced the Pleo had results on Prof P and was trying to make it obvious on review. In Post #142 above, he unvotes Prof in order to vote for Prof. I thought it was odd at the time, like he had already forgotten who he voted or he unvoted just to add me to his list of suspects, but now I think it was him ensuring his message would get across.

In addition to this, the votes toDay fall in line with my theory and the people doubting Pleo’s results, while they make sense, also fall on the list of people involved.

Obviously it was way off, as both Sach and Prof flipped non-mafia. I’m a little dissapointed in Prof’s flip, but glad that I can eliminate the theory all together. I wasn’t picking up SNF and Raven on my Scumdar until the theory started bouncing around in my head.

With Sach flipping as claimed, I’m dead set against lynching Crys. Seems Mafia is ahead enough that they are finally taking care of potential issues. I say we let them worry about the cult now that we know that their claims have at least not been a scum ploy.