At this point, we have information, so I started a summary of who voted for whom. I’m drawing vote records from http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19984428&postcount=34. I’m only looking at the final landing place for votes.
[spoiler]The Living(36):
3. Biotop - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Squid lynched scum
6. bufftabby - D1 Lakai mislynch -D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Prof. P not lynched - D4 Diggit -
7. Captain Klutz - E1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3Idle mis-lynch - D4 Squid lynch scum
10. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - D1 Lakai mislynch -D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Idle mis-lynch - Squid lynch scum
11. crys75 - D1 No vote - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Enderw24 not lynched - D3 Enderw24 not lynched
13. [del]DaphneBlack[/del]Lakai 2 - D1 no vote (as Daphne) - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 - HockeyMonkey not lynched - D4 - Diggit mis-lynched
16. EnderW24 - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 no vote - D3 Prof. P not lynched - D4 Squid lynch scum
17. Guiri - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 ToeJam not lynched - Squid not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
18. Hal Briston - D1 no vote - D2 no vote - D3 Prof. P not lynched - D4 no vote
19. hawkeyeop - D1 Colby not lynched - D2 Crys not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Squid lynch scum
21. HookerChemical - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3 Pleonast not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
22. Hoopy Frood - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 HockeyMonkey - D3 Prof. P not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
24. Inner Stickler - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Prof. P not lynched - Squid lynch scum
25. Johnny Bravo D1 Normal Phase not lynched - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Squid lynch scum
27. Khameleon - D1 no vote - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 no vote
28. Koldanar- D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 SNFaulkner not lynched - D3 no vote - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
30. LightFoot - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 Pleonast not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Prof. P not lynched
31. Meeko D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Khameleon not lynched - D4 Squid lynch scum
32. Mhaye - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3 Prof. P not lynched - D4 Prof. P not lynched
33. Nanook of the North Shore - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 Chronos not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Prof. P not lynched
34. Nesta - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - no vote
37. Plumpudding - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 Texcat not lyched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Squid lynch scum
38. [del]Precambrian mollusk[/del]Cygnus 42 - D1 no vote - D2 no vote - D3 Prof P not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
39. Prof. Pepperwinkle - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 sachertorte not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
40. Raventhief - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
42. Sachertorte - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 ToeJam not lynched - Prof P not lynched - D4 Squid lynch scum
44. Scathach - TexCat not lynched - Crys75 not lynched - D3 no vote - D4 no vote
46. sinjin - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Prof P not lynched
47. snfaulkner - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 Crys75 not lynched - D3 Squid not lynched - D4 Squid lynch scum
50. Texcat - D1 Colby not lynched - D2 Crys75 not lynched - D3 Prof P not lynched - D4 D4 Squid lynch scum
53. Total Lost - D1 Angel not lynched - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Prof P not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
54. [del]Winston Smith[/del]Paulwhoisaghost - D1 no vote - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Diggit not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
55. Zeriel - D1 Angel not lynched - Crys75 not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - Prof P not lynched
The Deceased(19):
12. Dante G – ModKilled D1 –Vanilla Town
29. Lakai 1 – Lynched D1 - Vanilla Town
35. Normal Phase – Daykilled D1 - Investigative Journalist
45. septimus – Daykilled D1 - EMT
48. Suburban Plankton – Nightkiled N1 (1) Homicide Detective
9. Colby11 – Nightkilled N1 – Vanilla Town
5. brewha – Lynched D2 – Vanilla Town
8. Chronos – Daykilled D2 - Mason
15. Drain Bead - Nightkilled N2 - Leprechaun
41. Red Skeezix - Modkilled D3 - Vanilla Town
43. Sario – poofed D3 - Wizard
23. Idle Thoughts - Lynched D3 - Vanilla Town
- AngeloftheNorth - Nightkilled N3 - Vanilla Town
- Toejam - Nightkilled N3 - Doctor Seward
- jsgoddess - Daykilled D3 - Beta Wolf
- Thing Fish - Daykilled D3 - Omega Wolf
- DiggitCamara - Lynched D4 - Vanilla Town
- Boozahol Squid, P.I. - Lynched D4 - Outrider
- Pleonast - Daykilled D4 - Seer
- BillMc - Night Killed N4 - Whelp
- Sunny Daze - Night Killed N4 - Informant
- Hockey Monkey - Night Killed N4 - Consigliere[/spoiler]
About halfway through I realized it wasn’t as fruitful as I’d hoped it would be but I completed it because I’d already invested the effort and maybe somebody else finds it more useful.
I started looking at those records with the idea that bussing in a game with two scum teams is of much less value than in a one scum team game. If scum busses their own, it advances both the town and other scum team toward their win condition, puts the bussing team behind the other scum team for player count, and doesn’t clear the bussing team (e.g. Wolves) of being the other team (e.g. Mafia) until that other team is eliminated. Unfortunately, we’ve only lynched Squid as scum, so it’s not as helpful as I’d like. D3 is almost useless as an indicator because of the Idle meltdown. I suspect the exercise may be more useful in a couple of Days.
My assessment of each player’s record follows, but as I said, it isn’t as useful as I’d hoped. I’ll follow up with non-vote related thoughts later, probably today.
3. Biotop - Decent vote record. Not much to gain from it though. Very early on Squid train D4, which may suggest not wolf, but not strongly.
6. bufftabby - early mislynches get on record, doesn’t dodge votes. Vote on Diggit gave Diggit 3 vote lead, so it’s influential but not critical.
7. Captain Klutz - Decent vote record, but not much info to gain. Very early on Squid train D4, which may suggest not wolf, but not strongly.
10. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - Early mislynches get on the record, doesn’t dodge votes, vote on Squid keeps him in contention
11. crys75 - Weak vote record with a non-vote and 2 votes on non-viable candidates. If third party goals as claimed, lynches of non-LUTHA advance LUTHA goals.
13. [del]DaphneBlack[/del]Lakai 2 - D1 non-vote is null tell. Maybe Batman (possibly accounts for number of night kills, death of HM)
16. EnderW24 - Decent vote record. Not much to gain from it though. Very early on Squid train D4, which may suggest not wolf, but not strongly.
17. Guiri - Early votes were on viable candidates and don’t come off as dodges.
18. Hal Briston - Are you kidding me? This is a bad record.
19. hawkeyeop - By the time Hawkeye voted Squid, it was clear Squid would be in the running for lynch. (It was 8-3 with Squid ready to run away with the lynch.) That suggests Hawkeye isn’t a wolf.
21. HookerChemical - Shitty scum hunting here.
22. Hoopy Frood - The early HM vote grabs my attention, but I’m not sure what to make of it. HM was never going to be the lynch that day. The vote on Diggit extended a small (2 vote) lead for Diggit, which may indicate wolfishness, but not strongly. Another HM voter, which may suggest a fondness for caves and night hunting.
24. Inner Stickler - Early mislynches, gets on record, doesn’t dodge votes.
25. Johnny Bravo - The last vote on Squid, which pretty much seals that JB isn’t a wolf.
27. Khameleon - This is a pretty bad record due to non-participation.
28. Koldanar - I’m not gaining much information here.
30. LightFoot - I’m not gaining much information here.
31. Meeko - Squid was in a good lead for the lynch when Meeko voted for him. He may not be a wolf, but it’s a weak indicator.
32. Mhaye - Mhaye has voted for a contender each day, so that’s good. A couple were ultimately town (LakaiV1, ToeJam), but there’s a record
33. Nanook of the North Shore - Probably not a mason or a wolf.
34. Nesta - No good scum hunting here. Candidates were viable for D1-D3.
37. Plumpudding - Plum isn’t a wolf.
38. [del]Precambrian mollusk[/del]Cygnus 42 - No votes on D1 and D2 are null tells. Not much to be gleaned here.
39. Prof. Pepperwinkle - I’m not sold on this record. I don’t like the sachertorte vote. I’m giving almost everybody a pass for their D3 votes because of Idle’s meltdown, but the sachertorte vote bugs me because it’s a bad idea. I just can’t figure out if it’s bad townie or bad scummy.
40. Raventhief - Lousy scum hunting here with 4 blues after her name. It’s a small shameful club.
42. Sachertorte - About what I’d expect from a third party working with town.
44. Scathach - The first voter with no color after her name. I don’t like it.
46. sinjin - Nothing jumps out at me much.
47. snfaulkner - Voted Squid D3 and D4 which I’m taking as a sign he’s not a wolf. Second least likely to be a wolf, behind only Johnny Bravo
50. Texcat - Her vote on Squid came during the heat of the runup to the double lynch and she’s not likely to be a wolf.
53. Total Lost - I don’t gain much from her voting record.
54. [del]Winston Smith[/del]Paulwhoisaghost - D1 no vote is null tell. The voting record isn’t impressive and doesn’t offer much information.
55. Zeriel - I don’t gain much information here.