Mafia Reunion Day 5

I’ll be the first to admit I’m doing a sucky job of playing this time around. i won’t make excuses, I’m just not trying as hard as I should be. Not fair and I apologize. That said I’m also seeing a huge amount of posts to read but not seeing a lot of new or compelling content and am having difficulty coming up with my own ideas. I feel a bit damned if I do, damned if I don’t in this game at the moment, which makes me hesitant to do anything at all. And, yes, I fully accept that I put myself in this situation by not participating enough.

I do think the apparent damning of Prof. Pepperwinkle by Pleonast is the most logical place to vote today, so:

Vote Prof. Pepperwinkle

I agree that looking for Scum to lynch is more important than eliminating the proclaimed Cultists, however I also have no problem in lynching a Cultist as an additional lynch (which we don’t have today), or if there’s no good evidence against anyone being Scum at the time. Until a Cultist is lynched, we don’t actually know anything about them for certain, including if they exist, how many of them there are or if they are hostile or not. I find it somewhat interesting that so many are taking them at their word without actual evidence.

Partially in my own defense, but also as a consideration with others, I want to suggest that, although lurking can be a valid Scum tactic, there is no reason not to think that it can be a valid Town tactic as well.

@Ulla,

How is this coming along? I suppose you could disregard the part about Toejam at this point.

You aren’t the first to admit to doing a sucky job. If you are having trouble with keeping up, it’s better to skim the thread for topics and make note of who takes what position, comment if you like and then focus on specific players. Don’t have a lot of time? Start with players with low post counts. Koldanar, Guiri, MHaye, Nesta, Enderw24, Cygnus42, Meeko, Zeriel, Hal Briston, and Hawkeyeop all trend towards smaller post counts, some post less but their posts are high in content value. Keeping current and doing some review on specific players could be helpful. Rather than rereading entire threads, just search for posts by them in the threads. Or aim at someone you are suspicious of and focus on them.

Lurking is not a valid tactic IMO. For town or scum. No one is going to congratulate another player on their expert use of the lurking tactic. If you aren’t able to maintain the usual level of participation, then participate as much as you can. Lurking as a tactic is the equivalent of saying “I can’t fail if I don’t try”, for both town and scum.

Active lurking as town is only valid for power roles, and then only depending on the specific power…at least in my admittedly crappy book.

Idea:

We could each take up a unique case… maybe on the next living player a****lphabetically, and issue a report. It would give us conversation on a Day where the vote result seems almost assured anyway, thus keeping debate and thought alive. We assign everyone analyzing opportunities separately. This plan would also divide up the monumental chore of reviewing all the current players, force lurkers, Scum and Lutha to make cases and maybe help each player evaluate someone different, perhaps a player off their game radar. The report would be due by Sunday. For those who complain about homework, I’d just respond that analyzing one player would not be a heavy burden, and the benefit of these dozens of analysis might be surprising.

I think the results could prove interesting and informative. What do you think? Would it be like herding cats? Would players give it a go?

Sorry, but this game has around 5000 posts - I’m barely keeping up with the threads of inquiry which strike my interest or ping me, let alone being assigned them. Didn’t somebody already suggest a plan like this on a previous Day?

I’m with TexCat on this. I find it hilariously ironic you are voting for me while going after the low count posters.

Yep. I will. Probably on Saturday. I’m re-reading and posting light 'cause I want to benefit Town in some small way, and when I post it distracts Town from finding real Scum.

I suppose I see the irony? Note that I’m not currently advocating lynching anybody simply for lurking. There are extant cases on both Khameleon and Enderw24 that go beyond those. The rest of the lurkers need to be called out because that’s how the game works.

Meanwhile, you’ve posted 16 times and not a single one will be helpful to Town if you get lynched and flip blue.

You’re the third most prolific poster in the thread.

And now it’s 17 posts.

Honestly, I think your case is a slam dunk. I would have probably voted for you before for the weird 3rd Party focus, but the detective voting for you twice in a row is more than enough to earn a vote. Maybe you are incredibly unlucky, but I got play the odds.

I see no reason to look further into you. I’m not going to change my vote. Thus I will spend the rest of the day looking at other people to try to form more opinions to prepare for future days. I don’t find it ironic for others to do the same. I would consider it logical play.

I don’t remember Ender switching votes yesterday. His case on Boozy was actually the one that convinced me to vote there, so I think I’d remember if he switched.

I voted ProfP on D3, so I can see the case on him. He has still not voiced opinions on much of anyone except lurkers. But as you noted above, when the wolves flipped, it looked like ProfP couldn’t be wolf. And with the Hockey vote, it’s looking less likely that he’s mafia. I’m not as convinced that he’s town as Angel was, but I’d have to guess town.

The problem is that now it’s going to be easy to vote Prof and blame it on Pleo. I doubt very much that Pleo investigated Prof. He would never be my target if I were cop. I’d be investigating the people who are forcefully expressing opinions and leading town; they’re the most dangerous. (Like you and Angel) Or I’d be investigating people who I thought were good players, but staying off the radar. (Like BillMc, Cookies, Hoopy).

I suspect that we’ll find scum are those that made easy votes on Brewha on D2 and Prof on D5.

As for my vote on you, I’m wavering. This type of vote analysis is much more helpful than your discussions yesterday.

At this point, we have information, so I started a summary of who voted for whom. I’m drawing vote records from http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19984428&postcount=34. I’m only looking at the final landing place for votes.

[spoiler]The Living(36):
3. Biotop - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Squid lynched scum
6. bufftabby - D1 Lakai mislynch -D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Prof. P not lynched - D4 Diggit -
7. Captain Klutz - E1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3Idle mis-lynch - D4 Squid lynch scum
10. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - D1 Lakai mislynch -D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Idle mis-lynch - Squid lynch scum
11. crys75 - D1 No vote - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Enderw24 not lynched - D3 Enderw24 not lynched
13. [del]DaphneBlack[/del]Lakai 2 - D1 no vote (as Daphne) - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 - HockeyMonkey not lynched - D4 - Diggit mis-lynched
16. EnderW24 - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 no vote - D3 Prof. P not lynched - D4 Squid lynch scum
17. Guiri - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 ToeJam not lynched - Squid not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
18. Hal Briston - D1 no vote - D2 no vote - D3 Prof. P not lynched - D4 no vote
19. hawkeyeop - D1 Colby not lynched - D2 Crys not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Squid lynch scum
21. HookerChemical - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3 Pleonast not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
22. Hoopy Frood - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 HockeyMonkey - D3 Prof. P not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
24. Inner Stickler - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Prof. P not lynched - Squid lynch scum
25. Johnny Bravo D1 Normal Phase not lynched - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Squid lynch scum
27. Khameleon - D1 no vote - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 no vote
28. Koldanar- D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 SNFaulkner not lynched - D3 no vote - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
30. LightFoot - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 Pleonast not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Prof. P not lynched
31. Meeko D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Khameleon not lynched - D4 Squid lynch scum
32. Mhaye - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3 Prof. P not lynched - D4 Prof. P not lynched
33. Nanook of the North Shore - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 Chronos not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Prof. P not lynched
34. Nesta - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - no vote
37. Plumpudding - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 Texcat not lyched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Squid lynch scum
38. [del]Precambrian mollusk[/del]Cygnus 42 - D1 no vote - D2 no vote - D3 Prof P not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
39. Prof. Pepperwinkle - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 sachertorte not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
40. Raventhief - D1 Lakai mislynch - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
42. Sachertorte - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 ToeJam not lynched - Prof P not lynched - D4 Squid lynch scum
44. Scathach - TexCat not lynched - Crys75 not lynched - D3 no vote - D4 no vote
46. sinjin - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 ToeJam not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - D4 Prof P not lynched
47. snfaulkner - D1 ToeJam not lynched - D2 Crys75 not lynched - D3 Squid not lynched - D4 Squid lynch scum
50. Texcat - D1 Colby not lynched - D2 Crys75 not lynched - D3 Prof P not lynched - D4 D4 Squid lynch scum
53. Total Lost - D1 Angel not lynched - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Prof P not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
54. [del]Winston Smith[/del]Paulwhoisaghost - D1 no vote - D2 brewha mislynch - D3 Diggit not lynched - D4 Diggit mis-lynch
55. Zeriel - D1 Angel not lynched - Crys75 not lynched - D3 Idle mis-lynch - Prof P not lynched

The Deceased(19):
12. Dante G – ModKilled D1 –Vanilla Town
29. Lakai 1 – Lynched D1 - Vanilla Town
35. Normal Phase – Daykilled D1 - Investigative Journalist
45. septimus – Daykilled D1 - EMT
48. Suburban Plankton – Nightkiled N1 (1) Homicide Detective
9. Colby11 – Nightkilled N1 – Vanilla Town
5. brewha – Lynched D2 – Vanilla Town
8. Chronos – Daykilled D2 - Mason
15. Drain Bead - Nightkilled N2 - Leprechaun
41. Red Skeezix - Modkilled D3 - Vanilla Town
43. Sario – poofed D3 - Wizard
23. Idle Thoughts - Lynched D3 - Vanilla Town

  1. AngeloftheNorth - Nightkilled N3 - Vanilla Town
  2. Toejam - Nightkilled N3 - Doctor Seward
  3. jsgoddess - Daykilled D3 - Beta Wolf
  4. Thing Fish - Daykilled D3 - Omega Wolf
  5. DiggitCamara - Lynched D4 - Vanilla Town
  6. Boozahol Squid, P.I. - Lynched D4 - Outrider
  7. Pleonast - Daykilled D4 - Seer
  8. BillMc - Night Killed N4 - Whelp
  9. Sunny Daze - Night Killed N4 - Informant
  10. Hockey Monkey - Night Killed N4 - Consigliere[/spoiler]

About halfway through I realized it wasn’t as fruitful as I’d hoped it would be but I completed it because I’d already invested the effort and maybe somebody else finds it more useful.

I started looking at those records with the idea that bussing in a game with two scum teams is of much less value than in a one scum team game. If scum busses their own, it advances both the town and other scum team toward their win condition, puts the bussing team behind the other scum team for player count, and doesn’t clear the bussing team (e.g. Wolves) of being the other team (e.g. Mafia) until that other team is eliminated. Unfortunately, we’ve only lynched Squid as scum, so it’s not as helpful as I’d like. D3 is almost useless as an indicator because of the Idle meltdown. I suspect the exercise may be more useful in a couple of Days.

My assessment of each player’s record follows, but as I said, it isn’t as useful as I’d hoped. I’ll follow up with non-vote related thoughts later, probably today.


3. Biotop - Decent vote record. Not much to gain from it though. Very early on Squid train D4, which may suggest not wolf, but not strongly.
6. bufftabby - early mislynches get on record, doesn’t dodge votes. Vote on Diggit gave Diggit 3 vote lead, so it’s influential but not critical.
7. Captain Klutz - Decent vote record, but not much info to gain. Very early on Squid train D4, which may suggest not wolf, but not strongly.
10. ComeToTheDarkSideWeHaveCookies - Early mislynches get on the record, doesn’t dodge votes, vote on Squid keeps him in contention
11. crys75 - Weak vote record with a non-vote and 2 votes on non-viable candidates. If third party goals as claimed, lynches of non-LUTHA advance LUTHA goals.
13. [del]DaphneBlack[/del]Lakai 2 - D1 non-vote is null tell. Maybe Batman (possibly accounts for number of night kills, death of HM)
16. EnderW24 - Decent vote record. Not much to gain from it though. Very early on Squid train D4, which may suggest not wolf, but not strongly.
17. Guiri - Early votes were on viable candidates and don’t come off as dodges.
18. Hal Briston - Are you kidding me? This is a bad record.
19. hawkeyeop - By the time Hawkeye voted Squid, it was clear Squid would be in the running for lynch. (It was 8-3 with Squid ready to run away with the lynch.) That suggests Hawkeye isn’t a wolf.
21. HookerChemical - Shitty scum hunting here.
22. Hoopy Frood - The early HM vote grabs my attention, but I’m not sure what to make of it. HM was never going to be the lynch that day. The vote on Diggit extended a small (2 vote) lead for Diggit, which may indicate wolfishness, but not strongly. Another HM voter, which may suggest a fondness for caves and night hunting.
24. Inner Stickler - Early mislynches, gets on record, doesn’t dodge votes.
25. Johnny Bravo - The last vote on Squid, which pretty much seals that JB isn’t a wolf.
27. Khameleon - This is a pretty bad record due to non-participation.
28. Koldanar - I’m not gaining much information here.
30. LightFoot - I’m not gaining much information here.
31. Meeko - Squid was in a good lead for the lynch when Meeko voted for him. He may not be a wolf, but it’s a weak indicator.
32. Mhaye - Mhaye has voted for a contender each day, so that’s good. A couple were ultimately town (LakaiV1, ToeJam), but there’s a record
33. Nanook of the North Shore - Probably not a mason or a wolf.
34. Nesta - No good scum hunting here. Candidates were viable for D1-D3.
37. Plumpudding - Plum isn’t a wolf.
38. [del]Precambrian mollusk[/del]Cygnus 42 - No votes on D1 and D2 are null tells. Not much to be gleaned here.
39. Prof. Pepperwinkle - I’m not sold on this record. I don’t like the sachertorte vote. I’m giving almost everybody a pass for their D3 votes because of Idle’s meltdown, but the sachertorte vote bugs me because it’s a bad idea. I just can’t figure out if it’s bad townie or bad scummy.
40. Raventhief - Lousy scum hunting here with 4 blues after her name. It’s a small shameful club.
42. Sachertorte - About what I’d expect from a third party working with town.
44. Scathach - The first voter with no color after her name. I don’t like it.
46. sinjin - Nothing jumps out at me much.
47. snfaulkner - Voted Squid D3 and D4 which I’m taking as a sign he’s not a wolf. Second least likely to be a wolf, behind only Johnny Bravo
50. Texcat - Her vote on Squid came during the heat of the runup to the double lynch and she’s not likely to be a wolf.
53. Total Lost - I don’t gain much from her voting record.
54. [del]Winston Smith[/del]Paulwhoisaghost - D1 no vote is null tell. The voting record isn’t impressive and doesn’t offer much information.
55. Zeriel - I don’t gain much information here.

My reasons were explained here. Essentially, rereading Squid in context I thought Diggit came off as scumier. If I had to pick one to be lynched, it was Diggit.

I also think that wolves will vote for wolves and mafia will vote for mafia. Sometimes town cred is worth getting a cohort lynched. While it is important to look vote records, it is dangerous to think X player can’t be a wolf because they voted for one to be lynched at a key point.

Thanks for pointing that out, there is definitely an error on my spreadsheet. I went back and checked, he only voted for booz.
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I disagree. We have only seen one case of potential bussing so far, and only if Prof flips mafia. And I wouldn’t really call it bussing, it looks more like posturing. Prof was not in danger of being lynched when hockey voted for him. When I say I don’t think scum are going to be doing any bussing, it’s because we have no evidence that they have been, it’s less effective in this game, and the wolves really can’t afford it. Maybe mafia could bus, but I don’t think it would be worth it. Maybe the problem is with how you define bussing. I would only consider it bussing if the vote placed the teammate in danger of lynch. I don’t consider Hockeymonkey’s vote for ProfP bussing. If Johnnybravo is a wolf, then he bussed the shit out of Boozy. Boozy wouldn’t have been lynched if Johnnybravo didn’t switch his vote. That’s the kind of vote I highly doubt we are going to see. So I do consider it viable to assess someone’s alignment based on their votes.

That being said, Boozy was clearly at risk of the lynch, if he was already on the way out, I could see a fellow wolf voting for him at a time that it wouldn’t make a difference.

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I’m not completely convinced on the Prof. case. Only going from my own experience, but I wouldn’t have investigated Prof. especially not if he was one of my main contenders for a lynch also getting heat from other people too. I’d investigate people I’m either unsure about, I find scummy and flying under the radar, contentious players etc. I also wouldn’t have crumbed my investigations, but that’s because I’m terrible at crumbing, I’m a terrible scumhunter and therefore I’m usually left alone until late game. This is why I asked earlier if Pleo is a crumber.

On TexCat, go back to my case Day 2, then look at my follow-up Day 3. I find there’s very little of note, a vote-count placed squarely in the middle, and she seems much more concerned, and much more talkative, about other things than looking for scum and throwing her finger around. IMO.

We don’t know who half the scum are, so it is hard to say what they have or haven’t been doing. Scum strategy is going to be difficult to parse until game end.

I concur it would be less effective here, but ultimately you only need one to win, so I don’t think it is beyond the realm of possibility. Maybe you believe Boozy is going to get lynched, if not today then soon, and it worth appearing as town. I guess it might just be a degree of language. I don’t think the vote seals Johnny is not a wolf, but willing to acknowledge it as a point in his favor.

I didn’t study every single post no, I went back looking for the ones that I remembered as sticking out to me. Looking back over the Day around this post, I notice that you called it out as one you really liked, so I can see why you would want my thoughts. So let’s get to it.

So to start, we now know that Boozy was a Wolf. At the time of the vote, Boozy only had one other vote. He would of course go on to be lynched. This would indicate to me that if EnderW is scum, he’s likely Mafia as there is no evidence of much bussing occurring, and the set up itself discourages it.

For the rest of it, this seems like a situation of a disagreement in fundamental approach. That is, for some people the important part of Mafia is winning. For that type of person, being lynched doesn’t matter as long as their team wins. Anything that doesn’t strictly increase their odds of winning has no value. For others, Mafia is much more about the actual playing. Anything that lets them stay alive longer and play more is better.

Obviously most people fall somewhere in between those two extremes. They want to win, but they also don’t want to die too early. Given the desire to survive so that one can keep playing, defensiveness makes sense. As such, I disagree with him that people shouldn’t care about cases made against them. I find that responding to cases and interacting with them is one of my strengths as a player, and if the case is about me all the better since I know my own motivations.

Overall? It makes me think he isn’t a Wolf, but does not give me any reason to ignore the other posts he’s made, leaving me thinking he’s likely Mafia.