And you know what? Town should be pretty happy if there are enough cultists at endgame to hand Town the win.
That’s your take-away? I point out holes in your thinking and that takes me out of the Third Party column and makes me scum? How is that reasonable?
Let’s assume that there are five cultists. Let’s assume a scenario where cultists get to pick who the winner is.
That makes it a 50/50 flip over who wins. Screw those odds.
But you know what?
I just realized that you’ve spent the last few posts speaking for all of the other cultists, as if you can somehow guarantee their pro-town motivations.
The cultists as described do not have the ability to talk to one another. But scum do.
I’m growing more and more convinced that you’re a liar.
How is it reasonable for you to attribute pro-town motives to cultists who you supposedly have no communication with?
We’re talking theory. That’s pretty obvious.
So you’re not going to address the mid-game sacrifices I mentioned? You’re just gonna slap on the “liar” label and be done with it?
Hmmm.
I stopped reading when you started talking about alternate timelines. I don’t play quantum Mafia.
Bottom line - either you can speak for your fellow cultists (in which case you’re lying about who and what you are) or you can’t speak for your fellow cultists and all of your jabber is just that - jabber.
Hmm yourself.
The problem here is that part of your theory is whether your fellow cultists will act in town’s interests.
I don’t have to be theoretical when I say that I want town to win. You do. If you’re telling the truth about everything then you have no idea whether the cultists are currently acting in town’s interest or whether they will be willing to do so at end-game.
Then why did you ask?
I was perfectly fine letting you yammer on and leaving you the hell alone, but you specifically asked me to comment.
I wonder if ** crys ** has anything to say about this?
Or, for that matter any other “cultist”
I see where you are coming from, but I disagree on a few points. If the vig and the wolves are all dead, there will be significantly fewer deaths each round and LYLO will slow down dramatically, not speed up.
You don’t seem to consider what a scum and cultists win would look like. In order for the cultists to win with scum there would have to be less cultists than scum remaining. Cultists only need 1 to survive according to their claim, but here’s where it gets tricky. Let’s suppose that we get no further scum kills until the total game is reduced to 3 wolves, 5 mafia, and 5 cultists. You are worried about them out numbering town and block voting. For that situation to occur there can be no more than 12 town, ignoring other 3P, that brings the game total to 25. Not too far away. Can either scum team win in that situation without killing the cultists? No.
So let’s say we pick off all the wolves, and there are 5 mafia, 5 cult, and 9 town. In this and only this situation, the scum can win without killing any cultists. That’s 19 players, and requires that no mafia or cultists die before getting there for it to work. Any loss from either side makes it harder for them to get to the point that they can block vote.
Run the actual numbers… the cultists working with the scum doesn’t work unless the scum kill off cultists, at this point with 5 mafia, they are equal in number to the cult and would have to kill everyone else to win without killing a cult member. I don’t find that likely to happen.
I’d like to point out that this sort of situation is why it is important for us to try to differentiate between likely wolf and likely mafia. We want them all dead, but there are several situations where it benefits us to kill one over the other. This is one of those situations.
I don’t think it likely that the cult wold attempt to work with the scum, but the best plan of action is to reduce the mafia and wolf numbers to a point that it wouldn’t make sense for them to work together. Wolves are already there, we need one more mafia and then they can’t win without killing a cultist.
Again, I say the cultists remain tabled until one more mafia dies and then they all claim.
I still have a tin foil hat theory bouncing around my head that cultists are mafia and I want to see another mafia due before I am ready to dismiss it. In that crazy theory, the remaining mafia are Crys, Sach, SNF, Raventhief, and Prof. Of which the only one I think is likely still scum even if the theory is wrong, is Prof.
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You did comment. You said, “I also disagree with you strongly about your assessment of cultist dangers.”
The fact that you refuse to acknowledge that the cultists may be a threat to town is enough to make me want to lynch you. It’s effectively a lie, and liars get lynched.
I would trust you more if you were being honest.
And as I have said, if at that point even 1 more cultist claims, and they confirm each other, then it precludes them being wolves.
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You keep bringing this up as if the cultists care whether one (or even a few of them) get killed by scum. They don’t care as long as they win.
That could be Days from now. We could just lynch sachertorte now and confirm that the cultists are real. We wouldn’t have to wait for anything.
There’s no hmmming from me.
Vote Johnny Bravo
Again, this doesn’t make sense to me. If there are 5 LUTHA, than we know they aren’t wolves so all of them claiming would prove they aren’t wolves right now, once the existing claimed cultists check and confirm two of the others.
Right now there are 5 mafia. If all of the other LUTHA claimed, they numbers would be 5 and 5. How is that different that 2 and 2? Your solution is to lynch one of the LUTHA in order to rule out scum. I say, lynch scum and when the number of scum is less than the supposed LUTHA, they all claim and verify each other and it proves that they can’t be of that faction.
Even if there were only 2 wolf and 2 scum left, why would that mean that LUTHA couldn’t prove they aren’t scum? There are supposed to be 3 other LUTHA out there still… either they get killed without claiming and we KNOW that LUTHA isn’t a scum ploy, or they somehow survive to see a situation with 2 wolves and 2 mafia remaining without losing even one of their members and then can claim to prove they aren’t scum.
What you are saying only makes sense if there are only 2 cultists in the game.
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That’s your second post all Day. You can do better than that.
Don’t be lazy.
This. I know it’s coming from a cultist, but it actually makes sense compared to what you guys are saying.
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That simply is not true. I openly stated that for cultists to align with scum, it would have to be endgame and scum would have to be winning. I then stated that the best way to avoid this possibility is for town to not put scum in a winning position.
I then explain that trying to avoid this situation is self-defeating for Town because
(1) sacrificing mid-game position to avoid an endgame situation that might not even happen is a bad trade and (2) “addressing” cultists de facto makes them part of the scum team, whether we choose so or not. In other words you can’t avoid the endgame situation you describe by killing cultists. In fact, doing so makes it happen.
It’s a very strange stance for you to take that you expect a cultist to say that we are a threat to the town. I mean, you are basically demanding it. It’s all very, trappy and damned if you do, damned if you don’t isn’t it?
You’ve spent the entire game defending the cultists. If they’re as advertised, I will not for a second be surprised to find that you’re one of them.
What makes you think that scum are more likely to kill only town without accidentally hitting a hidden cultists before we reach your 8/5/4 situation? Or that we won’t force a hidden cultist to claim under pressure of lynch because we thought they were scum? Both are way more likely than the game being reduced to no wolves, no vig, and only 8 town remaining, with no other 3P alive, and all cultists surviving.
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