That’s why i’m the best, baby! At what, I’m not entirely sure.
Meeko’s rant was crappy, btw.
Regardless, a theory that gives town cred to players who have been put on modkill notice is, uh, interesting. I agree with you that VT are more likely to lurk, but I also think NON-VT with lurking tendencies tend to hang onto games they’ve otherwise lost interest in because they get to exercise power roles. So what you might do is look for players in the scum pool whose participation has dwindled since midgame.
This is still problematic because what makes one player lose interest doesn’t apply to someone else.
Sometimes people aren’t posting because of things that are unrelated to the game entirely too. It doesn’t have to mean they have lost interest.
I am vanilla Town btw.
What exactly would you like me to explain Lightfoot? Why I haven’t been around? Work. End of the month revenue calculations plus we’re running a person down. Also the ramp up to our yearly audit, which is in like 2 weeks. Why I switched my vote from the actual claimed Mason? That should be obvious. Why I didn’t do it sooner? As I said, there’s been previous people expressing absolute confidence in other players, AND breadcrumbs that weren’t(see Pleo) in this game. We are far enough into the game that if you’re going to claim something, you should just do it. Breadcrumbing is a fool’s errand early on, and it’s simply ridiculous at this point. Speaking of…
I don’t really get what you’re trying to accomplish with your gambit. It feels like you’ve convinced yourself that “confusing the scum!” is a worthy goal in and of itself, without considering what, if anything, that confusion is actually going to accomplish. Why do you think scum would care which of the two roles you are? Neither of them is particularly dangerous to them at this point outside of the very confirmable nature. But from that standpoint, there’s plenty of targets in the masons and MHaye. Why do you think you are special in that company?
From what I recall from earlier games, vanilla are way more likely to sub out or get bored with the game than any other role. I think it’s because any sort of power role or scum role has not just more to do, but more responsibility. Losing any given vanilla isn’t a big deal, but losing a power role(depending on role and game of course) or a single scum is a way bigger deal. So people are more likely to force themselves to play than they would otherwise do.
BTW, the idea that not claiming vanilla means you are claiming scum is beyond weird to me. But whatever.
I’ll be back some more tomorrow morning. It’s time for some sleep.
Our roles are the last piece of information we have that Scum does not have. Why are we giving them away for little benefit? Once we see results from today’s lynch it may become clearer. But for right now I ask, has anyone else been looking at possible end game scenarios?
I snipped bits.
IF I am disregarding a point you wanted addressed by me let me know.
You are defensive about your lack of posts- I was only commenting on the substance of the posts you did make.
You are claiming vanilla Town - you are the 4th and I believe we only have room for 3
what are your thoughts on that?
comment redacted
I think I have painted myself in a corner trying to do what I think is the right thing.
[sub]
I should stop typing - tired puppy [/sub]
I ran through several of them while I was arguing with Lightfoot about claiming. The problem is that there are two wildcard factors.
- We don’t know whether scum will other-scum or non-scum. Normally, endgame scenarios are easy to calculate because you can be sure scum will target town every night.
- Even if we accept that they want to help us win at present, we have no idea what the cult will do if the numbers get to a point where they outnumber town.
I will say this: I ran a “worst case scenario” that involved town mislynching a VT every Day (starting toDay), and two town power roles dying each cycle (one mafia, one wolf).
In that scenario, the math happens to work out so that the last townie dies during Night 11. Day 12 starts at 3 cultists, 3 wolves, 3 scum.
In other words, scum must shoot for one another. If they only go after townies, they cannot guarantee the win.
I’ve said this already, but this is part of the reason why it would be good to claim before EoD. Shrinking the pool makes it easier for them to kill one another, and they must do that. Waiting for town to continue mislynching one another is not a winning strategy for either scum team.
Here’s that scenario, by the way. In it, the lynch is always VT, the daykill is always a town power role, the nightkill is always a town power role. Total casualties each cycle are 2 town power roles, 1 VT.
[spoiler]Day 9
6 town power roles
3 cultists
3 vanilla town
3 wolves
3 mafia
Day 10
4 town power roles
3 cultists
2 vanilla town
3 wolves
3 mafia
Day 11
2 town power roles
3 cultists
1 vanilla town
3 wolves
3 mafia
Day 12
0 town power roles
3 cultists
0 vanilla town
3 wolves
3 mafia[/spoiler]
My bold. That might seem the case for me, but it is incorrect. I didn’t lose interest (well I did around Day 2, but I played anyway), I simply couldn’t play. I warned you guys about it a couple of times, too, once in the sign-up thread. And now I feel overwhelmed, lost and ultimately of little help or relevance to the game. Maybe I can get my head back in the game again, I hope so.
I get it, but why the push for claiming NOW? It’s only going to help scum know who to kill overnight. It looks like we’re pretty solid on lynching Buff toDay.
Hawkeye: I have not forgotten that you never answered the question of how you knew their were*** only ***2 numbered Luthas. I originally thought that you were going to claim to be the 5th Lutha, but now it’s just odd that you knew that.
LOL. I know we’ve had a bad record of killing VTs so far, but it would be almost beyond worst case scenario if we manage to pick the one VT out of a pool of 6 scum + 1 VT in our last lynch!
I’m afraid that scum do not have to shoot one another. They can just hope that the town lynches more of the other team than their team. It seems to me that they should be killing their known enemy – town. We are going to start lynching scum soon – like this afternoon!
A heads up: I’ll be on an airplane at EOD and travelling next week, so my posting might be sparse.
Because I’ve played enough to know that being Vanilla Town has never saved anyone from a runaway vote train? A runaway train based on me voting at the same time as someone else, no less.
You’re the fifth person to claim VT. Here is the list of those players.
Johnny Bravo
Plumpudding
Raventhief
Nanook of the North Shore
Bufftabby
There are only three VT left, so that means there are two scum in this list. You obviously think I’m one of them. Who’s your pick for the other?
Well, at least two scum. I suppose there could technically be up to five scum in that list, but stuff like that isn’t helpful.
Defensive? Interesting choice of words. I was answering your question, and commenting on some of the discussion going on at large in general.
I think it means that scum aren’t complete fucking idiots, and aren’t going to just claim scum? I don’t get why you and, to a lesser extent, Bravo are so focused on this idea. What exactly do you think is going to occur? All the actual vanilla town are going to claim truthfully and the scum are going to be like “Shit, I’m caught, how can I claim now?!” Or maybe you think they’re actually going to try and claim a power role, in a game where all the power roles are known and due to the fact that there’s two scum teams means a 1 for 1 trade with Town is bad?
The bottom line is Town isn’t going to win this game by playing as if the scum teams are morons. Maybe they are, and maybe they aren’t(though the evidence that exists would point to not), but our best chance to win is to assume at the very least competence on their part.
As for voting, I don’t like the part of the case on bufftabby based on the timing and action of her vote on the double lynch day. It’s very metagamey, and assumes that everyone plays the same way. But other parts of said case are solid. I’m going to put my vote someplace else though, since her lynch is a given and I don’t like the metagame portion.
PLumpudding
Go back to my last post and see what I said about people feeling obligated to play even if they don’t really want to. Now take note of the fact that all the Town power roles have been claimed, and the fact that Plum has basically said he’s only playing because he feels obligated. Then reach the obvious conclusion thereof.
I didn’t say I only played because I feel obligated. I said I kinda lost interest Day 2. I’ve mentioned it several times “second part of Day 2 I felt was mostly pointless discussions about switches and LUTHA.” I’m not gonna throw up my hands and lurk just because I feel the discussion goes in a direction I don’t find interesting or constructive. Me going into lurk-mode was because I really couldn’t play, no time for it, much more important things to do. If you feel that’s scummy, go ahead and vote (you screwed up your vote), but you’re making a mistake.
spoilered by me.
Perhaps it is your over all tone in that ( and this) post that feels defensive/ slightly abrasive to me. - that could just be you I suppose but it still shines.
You may have missed the point of the other question. Obviously Scum is going to claim vanilla- so - of the vanilla claimed there be Scum- I certainly have no reason to think Scum are idiots and never alluded to same- so that mini rant portion of your post, again, seems defensive.
I believe no modkills are due unless you all see a player who has zero participation. Let me know.
**I thought it was also content based - or has that changed?
obviously that distinction is a Mod call, but I am curious
**
At this point I feel like you’re just looking for excuses to accuse me of being defensive. Maybe I should just ignore you instead? That wouldn’t be defensive right?
And yes, I did miss the point of your question. If you wanted me to say who I felt was likely scum there, then you should have just said that. The way you worded the question felt weird to me. Especially combined with your weird idea that someone not specifically claiming vanilla town was somehow claiming scum.
So you lost interest and didn’t have time to play, but you didn’t ask for a sub or accept a modkill. Instead, you do the minimum to stay alive. That hits what I was talking about feeling responsible to keep playing. But you claimed vanilla not a power role, so that leaves…my vote where it is.
This, yep.