Mafia Reunion: Day Eleven

The way I see it - we lynch Texcat. If Scum, yay. If Patsy - well she can take out scum with her death. Tomorrow we lynch another Patsy claimant…because if she is scum, then tomorrow we have the same equation. Lynch a “Patsy,” and either get another scum death or a Patsy+ scum death. We KNOW that there are 2 scum in that Patsy pool.

This makes sense.

Vote TexCat

At that point, town is down to 3 unknowns. A mislynch leads to

T-C-M
2-2-1

Mafia now kill a lutha, leaving

T-C-M
2-1-1

If town mislynches, mafia wins
Now, if we can avoid lynching the Patsy, we instead get to

T-C-M
4-2-1

With that additional town player (who is also unlynchable), there is an extra mislynch available.
So it seems that mafia have decided that it is worth exposing 2 of their number in order to (they hope) take down the Patsy and deprive town of a mislynch.
Incidentally, you say “Maybe I trust Biotop’s numbers and think they need to do this…”
Why should you trusting Biotop’s numbers mean mafia think they need to do this?

The final scum is one of

Biotop
JohnnyBravo
Plumpudding
Raventhief

Scum are hoping that their last member is sufficiently hidden, with enough ‘not-mafia’ cred (or distancing), to avoid lynching. Who of them has that cred?

I think that Plumpudding is the last scum. He looks to have been distancing himself from mafia a lot.

In Day 2 there was a bit of back and forth between Plumpudding and HockeyMonkey about TexCat. It started with Plumpudding’s WOW on TexCat (68). AngeloftheNorth agrees with this TexCat analysis:

and then Plumpudding agrees with AngeloftheNorth, basically suggesting that TexCat should have known better:

Now HockeyMonkey chimes in

Which continues

On Day 1, Plumpudding had a rather unusual reaction to Guiri’s suggestion that Plumpudding should try placing a vote:

This reaction is way excessive. Guiri wasn’t nagging or being unpleasant, why the overreaction?

On Day 1, SunnyDaze found a curious reason to find Plumpudding suspicious.
She quotes Suburban Plankton’s WOW on Plumpudding and then says:

So she thinks that Suburban Plankton and Colby are both scum. I suppose that makes sense from her perspective that the WOW was some sort elaborate ploy. But it’s not clear why she would not be surprised that Plumpudding was also scum.

In Day 2, she puts a ‘vote’ on Plumpudding. She now agrees with the WOW and decides that posting without substance is a tell:

(She later makes this a real vote (318) and later unvotes (508))

This could be a case of scum just smudging someone, but to me it looks more like distancing.

And of course Plumpudding has been on TexCat’s case the entire game.

So there it is Plumpudding has had some interesting interactions with HockeyMonkey, Guiri, SunnyDaze and TexCat. Maybe he is just unlucky. Or it’s an attempt at distancing.

Sorry that should be maybe they.

Klutz, that’s good stuff, but you and MHaye need to really get on record who you think the real patsy is. One of you will almost certainly be killed tonight, and we really want to lynch correctly tomorrow.

**MHaye **has not posted at all toDay.

We are aware.

I very much hope MHaye rejoins us.

I think the guy posting drunk at four in the morning should automatically win.

Owwwwooooooooo!

OK, I’m going, I’m going, don’t shove…

I hope MHaye didn’t see Nanook’s departure, and decide that it would be 'fairer" for Town to also lose a player.

**WOW on Scathach **
Day 1

21 Goodby Dante
22 Didn’t read Night 0
35 Criticises Biotop for being too “helpful townie”
39 Asks Biotop if there is anything worthwhile in Night 0
208 Comments on Meeko’s “Was Dante the Patsy?”
225 Patsy as a name. Also “The only reason I can see for the Patsy to claim unprompted is so investigators don’t waste their powers targetting them. Is there another advantage I’m missing?”
476 “I thought we’d already threshed out the “scum wouldn’t do that” issue.”
758 Votes TexCat for starting the Colby wagon “But tbh that post was classic colby and she’s played with him often enough to know that.”
762 Replies to TexCat
763 Minor reaction to septimus’s EMT claim
766 Another reply to TexCat, clarifying the “doubling down”
771 Reply to jsgoddess, about TexCat and doubling down
774 More clarification to to jsgoddess
781 oog
785 More clarification, this time to LightFoot
793 Another reply to TexCat

Comment:
Criticism of Biotop was a bit unfair. Her TexCat vote results in lots of discussion.

Day 2

26 Comment on Colby
160 Omnibus post:
- comment on win stealers
- FOS jsgoddess
- response to Pleonast over the criticism of Biotop
- comment on third parties
- still suspicious of Texcat, also the Colby voters
167, 168 gets clarification on win stealers
229 Comment on the Brewha switch plan
233 Points out problems with the Brewha switch plan
257 Another comment on the Brewha switch plan
261 Another comment on the Brewha switch plan
324 Comment on the low participation and the consequent difficulty of getting a second lynch
329 oog
337 oog
342 Requests a player list from the moderators
355 Seeks mod confirmation of Klutz’s switch questions
359 Comment on the mod’s reply
796 I’ll be away
959 Votes Chrys, is pro the double lynch. “I’m not a proponent of lynch all liars particularly”

Comment
Is heavily against the Brewha switch plan.
I am curious about the “I’m not a proponent of lynch all liars particularly”. This looks a bit strange as lies are rarely tolerated.
Day 3

143 is on holidays
Has some problems with the cultists
Thinks ToeJam is being overly defensive. Votes ToeJam (but improperly formatted)
160 Replies to LightFoot, clarifying the previous post

Comment
Little activity toDay (on holiday). She did in fact vote, although it was not officially counted.
Day 4

120 omnibus post
- response to Lakai, trying to understand her argument
- response to HalBriston about the 2 people who voted IdleThoughts after he posted that screenshot
- agrees that lynching the cultists doesn’t provide any information, I still remain pro double lynch
- response to TexCat, who points out that (Non-Hostile) appears as part of Chrys’s alignment
- asks Chrys why she did not confirm the other claimed cultist
177 Reply to Guiri, who asked about her holiday and whether she had caught up.

Comment
Another low activity Day, with no vote. Possibly interesting that both her posts include replies to mafiates
Day 5

491 Apologises for her absence
494 Wants to revisit Chrys as sachertorte’s reveal did not indicate win-stealing or non-winstealing

Comment
Eve less activity toDay, again with no vote.
Day 6

7 Asks if there is any possible reason for the cultists not to mass claim and then confirm each other
9 Reply to snfaulkner about the cultists
92 Responds to Guiri and Koldanar about her absence and her focus on the cult
Also asks about the case on TexCat
95 Response to JohnnyBravo, about his case on InnerStickler. “I read it, but nothing really leaped out at me tbh”
96 Brewha gender clarification

Comment
Back from holiday, but still nothing of substance. Again no vote
Day 7

206 Thinks a traditional SK role seems absurd in this setup. “But then I think the LUTHA roles seem to have too easy a wincon so what do I know.”
Doubts that Cookies is a bomb, votes Cookies
207 Question to LightFoot: “What makes you pro a LUTHA claim but not mason + patsy?”
208 Question to Koldanar, asking if he also had a confirm power
214 Response to LightFoot: “Just curious since people seem to be very willing to accept LUTHA as claimed. If so then a full LUTHA/mason/patsy claim should be a good thing. I’m not particularly willing to accept LUTHA but I’m obviously in the minority.”
215 Asks Koldanar why he is trying to find scum rather than protecting his lutha teammates
226 Asks everyone to comment on her question to Koldenar
229 Again, has doubts about Koldanar’s motivations
231 Reply to snfaulkner, who asked why it bothered Scathach that Koldanar was trying to find scum.
232 “I’m super dubious of Koldanar’s claim”
234 Another reply to snfaulkner, still doubting Koldanar’s motivations
281 Pointed out that (Non-hostile) was in lutha’s reported alignment, but not in their death reveal. Cookies reveal should be interesting

Comment
This was the Day of Cookies runaway wagon, so the lynch was never in question.
Scathach spent the Day concerned over lutha.

Day 8

13 Votes Koldanar, because “his play doesn’t make sense as a cultist”
14 Comments in the colour of HookerChemical’s death reveal, that it sounds like it’s coming from GladOS aka Cookies
43 Decides that HookerChemical was not a residual Cookies kill
118 “But we seem to be inching closer to the point where with LUTHA and mason claims we can eliminate the scum pool for hiding in. I don’t see any point in hiding information now.”
146 Again, that HookerChemical was not a residual Cookies kill
147 Says that she is voting for Koldanar because “I think he’s straight up lying about his role.”

Comment
Still concerned almost exclusively with lutha.

Day 9

16 Asks JohnnyBravo why the mass claim is the decision of the remaining power roles
124 Still didn’t really believe that Koldanar was lutha. But without a counterclaim, have to believe he’s lutha
125 “I’m also surprised Lightfoot was against the mass claim”
Also, does not agree with JohnnyBravo’s case on Lightfoot
129 Votes Bufftabby following Klutz’s case

Comment
Scathach appears to be in favour of the mass claim
Day 10

13 Feels stupd because she was set to vote for LightFoot toDay
22 “The patsy would be an idiot to claim right now. The only power left is the kill if lynched.”
111 Absent due to St Patrick’s Day
112 oog
114 oog
117 oog
120 oog
122 oog
130 Votes Zeriel

Comment
The only thing of note is the comment about the Patsy not claiming now

Overall a scum lean. Of particular interest:
Day 2

She is heavily against the Brewha switch plan.

The “I’m not a proponent of lynch all liars particularly” is very strange as lies are rarely tolerated. Mafia did want to save Brewha, so this looks particularly bad.

Day 9, she appeared to be in favour of the mass claim, although she didn’t actually say that:

Day 10, definitely against claiming:

Throughout she has been more concerned with lutha than finding scum.

WOW on Hawkeyeop
Night 0

171 Start time?
182 Pre-game talk is unfair to scum
188 Clarification of previous post
205 More clarification

Day 1

309 Lots of posts…
317 Omnibus post
- Concern about attrition and lack of subs
- Thinks that Colby’s slip was more nonsensical then scummy
- Of the Colby voters, finds HockeyMonkey’s the most suspicious
- Didn’t like Colby’s defence. “This read to me as scum annoyed they got voted for a stupid reason.”
- Comment on how the Wizard role could play
321 Comments on the dilemma of discussing scum strategy
349 Withdraw HockeyMonkey suspicion after she explains
350 Votes Colby, after a lacklustre defence
Comment:
Nothing of particular note

Day 2

409 omnibus post, apologises for absence
- Understands ToeJam’s absences, given his own difficulties
- Does not like IdleThoughts’s reason for voting ToeJam
- Does not really have a problem with the Colby voters
- Thinks that multilynch is good for town
- a comment on the size of the game
512 Thinks that Brewha’s switch reveal makes him mostly confirmed town
518 Clarifies what he means by 3 town switches
519 Doubts that every role has a switch
573 Does not believe that third parties must be lynched asap, but wants more info from Chrys
803 Votes Chrys, thinking that her actions were not consisten with her role
Is also happy with a Brewha lynch and will switch if needed
811 Response to paulwhoisaghost about Chrys’s actions
Clarifies his Brewha stance, again says he is okay with a double lynch

Comment
Looks solid. He was happy to lynch Brewha, although he didn’t actually vote for him

Day 3

139 Thinks that the cultists being a scum ploy is unlikely, and hunting for scum takes priority
Does not find the ToeJam case particularly compelling
758 Votes IdleThoughts over his odd playstyle
Is leaning toward the ToeJam claim being a lie
Will look at MHaye
761 Summary of MHaye
896 Doubts that IdleThoughts will get modkilled
900 Thinks that posting a screenshot is against the spirit of the game

Comment
Looks solid, although a long absence during the Day
Day 4

47 Thinks that the vig may have gone after ToeJam
Is still happy with a double lynch
Expects that the scum would have divided their votes on the 3 Day 1 suspects (since they were all town)
Asks Chrys if she ever investigated sachertorte
123 Asks Chrys why she did not investigate sachertorte
320 Vote Boozy. Presents a different case
341 Response to Boozy
351 Response to Pleonast about thinking about scum (part of the reason for Hawk’s vote on Boozy)
377 Response to paulwhoisaghost, about town having switch info that scum doesn’t have
427 Disagrees with Prof. P’s views on third parties

Comment
Looks solid again. I liked that he had a different case on Boozy

Day 5

6 Votes Prof P. No reason given
148 Does not think lutha is a scum ploy, but thinks there is more to them. Happy to lynch a lutha toMorrow
211 Responds to Prof P. with “the detective voting for you twice in a row is more than enough to earn a vote”
215 Points out that scum can vote for each other, so be wary of arguments that a player can’t be a wolf because he voted for a wolf at a key point
219 Responds to paulwhoisaghost about scum bussing each other. Agrees that bussing is less effective in this game
240 FOS snfaulkner for his unvote of Prof P
274 “Fishing is only bad if it outs town power roles. Nothing wrong with questioning confirmed third parties on their activities.”
275 Clarification of fishing and third parties and that it mainly helps town
325 Agrees with sachertorte’s analysis, but still has doubts over how many there are and whether they have a non-exclusive win
331 Explains why he thinks lutha may have lied over how many of them they are. Doubts they are scum
355 Minor comment on cult/scum alignment analysis
401 Thanks paulwhoisaghost for his WOW on Zeriel. Agrees with his non-scum assessment
470 Asks Chrys what a “First Deacon” is
485 Follow up to his previous post

Comment
Pretty solid again

Day 6

162 Votes HalBriston for no action and a question about scum logistics, something Boozy did too
170 Responds to Guiri WOW on him
192 Review of TexCat. Conclusion “Texcat is definitely scum. Also definitely town. Possibly third party.”
193 Responds to Guiri again (regarding his WOW on Hawkeyeop)
346 Asks Cookies if she had any prior knowledge of lutha

Comment
The vote on HalBriston is interesting. He was not looking a likely lynchee, so this may have been safe bussing.
Guiri did a WOW on Hawkeyeop just after this vote (although it was prompted by LightFoot’s suspicions).
Day 7

62 Explains his question to Cookies at the end of Night 6
64 Thinks it is too early for a mass claim
69 Votes Cookies
78 Explains why he thought Koldanar didn’t previously mention he had a SK switch
200 “An unknowable bomb mechanic is poor game design (as opposed to Patsy, which is a known bomb and perfectly fine)”
257 Is happy with the timings of the lutha claims
Would prefer to win without lutha, as they may be lying about their win condition
384 Is happy to use meta data to evaluate role claims
Comment
Looks solid. Interesting that he mentions Patsy

Day 8

44 Responds to JohnnyBravo, saying that he is town, not a cultist
50 Comments on the choice of Night kill
Agrees that high volume posters who have not been killed should be under greater scrutiny
Reponds to JohnnyBravo about his claim
55 Responds to LightFoot over Hawkeyeop’s statement that “It implies that right now scum is more concerned with cultists and perhaps each other than they are with town. Probably means we aren’t currently leading.”
71 Thanks JohnnyBravo for his response over the scum killing high volume posters
171 Is neutral on the Cygnus lynch: he could well be overwhelmed, but his defence is weak
Is not prepared to vote for JohnnyBravo (the train against him seems weak)
Will probably end up with a one-off vote
174 Says that for a mass claim to work, the remaining cultists need to claim as well
176 Votes Koldanar. “I don’t think he is lying about being a cultist, but I do think he is lying about something.”

Comment
The main point of interest is his thoughts on the mass claim
Day 9

36 Responds to LightFoot’s doubts over snfaulkner’s claim
Thinks that the mass claim discussion is ended, as lutha have still not claimed
40 “What Texcat said. I’m a bit dubious of how hard you [JohnnyBravo] are pushing this mass claim.”
50 Responds to JohnnyBravo over his previous post
Reponds to LightFoot again, over going with your gut when you can’t come up with a tangible reason.
Another response to LightFoot, on how countering the Patsy is a bad play
68 Responds to sinjin “If anything, your claim makes me feel even stronger that Koldanar is a Cultist”
71 Responds to TexCat over Koldanar’s claim
145 Is concerned about the Bufftabby wagon
Votes for JohnnyBravo over his ferocious push for the mass claim
198 Does not think a claim will help right now as we are about to lynch Bufftabby
203 No need to worry about it toDay if it provides no immediate use to town and provides information to scum

Comment
He is very concerned over the strong push for the mass claim. He thinks that lutha need to also claim.

After everyone else has claimed he still disagrees with the Patsy claiming, as the lynch is decided

Day 10

60 Responds to sinjin’s vote for him, regarding PIS about lutha
69 More response to sinjin
102 Finds something to investigate in the vote records
104 Says that he is looking at Raventhief first
125 Gives his Raventhief analysis
126 Leans town on Raventhief
134 Votes TexCat: “Of our two main contenders, definitely the one I’m more suspicious of.”
158 A word to the mods over participation and the length of the game

Overall a solid town lean. Of particular interest:

Day 6
He votes for HalBriston. Right after, Guiri does a WOW on Hawkeyeop, although it was prompted by LightFoot’s suspicions. Still, the timing is interesting.
In regard to the mass claim:

Day 7 was too early
Day 8, Says that for a mass claim to work, the remaining cultists need to claim as well
Start of Day 9, Thinks that the mass claim discussion is ended, as lutha have still not claimed
Late on Day 9, with the other roles claimed, he still did not think the Patsy needed to claim as the lynch was decided.
Day 10, he stayed away from any claim discussion

So there it is: Hawkeyeop is the Patsy, Scathach and TexCat are mafia. After that, it’s Plumpudding for the win

I wouldn’t do that. We’re supposed to be trying to lynch the lot of em.

I was a bit sad that Nanook was the last Wolf, as losing by having the last player modkilled / withdrawn was a sad way to go, but I’m not going to throw away the advantage gained like that.

No, the problem I have had is that every time I sit down and open the game thread now, my brain insists that the Mafia are trying to fake us out by making three false claims, a hypothesis that I examine every time, even though I come to the conclusion that they can’t get the necessary mislynches to win every time.

It’s wasted an awful lot of my game time. My apologies.

So, who do I think are the false claimants?

I said Yesterday (I think) that I have always had a suspicion of TexCat, (based on tone, although I may not have said that) but that wasn’t enough to vote because I might be harbouring a grudge harking back to the Arkham Returned game. (Also, of course, that is totally subjective.)

At this point, I can afford to be a bit subjective, because we know that two out of the three candidates must be Mafia.

There is also Texcat’s plan to bomb someone in the unclaimed pool. That felt to me like someone who was making things up on the spot. So.

Vote Texcat.

I’m not sure who the other Mafiate is in the group of three. Hawkeyeop’s claim made me twitch slightly, because of the way he worded the last line. He claimed in [post=20087693]post 43[/]post]. Rather than saying “I am the Patsy” he phrased it as “I am Patsy” as if it were the character’s role name (instead of role title).

On the other hand, Scathach came in significantly later, so I’m a bit worried that that was an attempt to muddy the waters a bit before claiming.

Sorry (again) for the long delay in posting. I’ll see you all after lunch.

I’m glad you posted! Losing another townie to a modkill might’ve been the end for us.

Yes, I noticed that too. My initial thought was that he had slipped, and was using TexCat’s pet name for the role. But when I looked at all his posts I found that he is a bit careless with grammar, and I even noticed an earlier post where he referred to the role as simply Patsy. From Day 7:

By the way, I’m going to bed soon, and I will probably miss the end of Day (as usual). I’ll check back in about half an hour, but then I’ll be done for the Day.

One final thing: when I saw that potential slip from Hawkeyeop I was expecting to find that Scathach was the Patsy. However, after doing the 2 WOWs I was totally convinced otherwise. I would be utterly shocked if it turned out that Hawkeyop was scum.

Okay, I’m done for now.

Two things.

  1. Arrrgh! Where did that extra square bracket come from?

Apologies again. I was a bit late for lunch, and failed to preview before posting. Anyway, the link has been restored by deleting the unwanted square bracket.

That’s good to know. Thanks for the digging.