Mafia Reunion - Day Three

[Thing_Fish]

Here is the analysis of the brewha wagon I promised (other than the case on Drain Bead.:()

Chronos of blessed memory pointed out brewha’s lie at post 536. At that time, the voting was very spread out; Pleonast led with only three votes, and six others were tied with two. Then, the pile-on began.

crys75 claimed shortly thereafter and attracted voters; at one point, she actually led brewha 8-7. Then, seven people piled onto brewha in pretty short order:raventhief, paulwhoisaghost, Khameleon, Lakai, Hooker Chemical, Meeko, and Toejam.

Here’s the Mod votecount at post 866, about 16 1/2 hours before EoD:

1 – brewha (17 votes) – Chronos (538), Biotop (543), Boozahol Squid (556), Cometothe…Cookies (575), sachertorte (576), bufftabby (622), Drain Bead (638), raventhief (646), paulwhoisaghost (702), Khameleon (716), Lakai (720), HookerChemical (722), Meeko (726), ToeJam (730), crys(743), Johnnyb(767), Profpepper(794)

2- Crys75 (10 votes) – Sunny Daze (568), Hockey Monkey (584), DiggitCamara (588), AngeloftheNorth (595), Texcat (639), Captain Klutz (640), snfaulkner (641); jsgodess(795), Hawkeyeop(803), Zeriel(860)

Pleonast (2 votes) – Lightfoot (288), Thing Fish (297)

PLAYERS WITH ONE VOTE:
ToeJam (Idle Thoughts – 32); Hockey Monkey (Hoopy Frood – 665); Texcat (Plumpudding – 68); Thing Fish (Pleonast -121); Chronos (Nanook – 151); sachertorte(brewha - 806); snfaulkner(1)(koldanar -819)
Just after that, this dialogue begins: (the very first quoted post is actually from paulwhoisaghost around 699)

@paulwhoisaghost

Bolding mine.

I’m leaning toward a theory where Crys is telling the truth and Brewha is a lying scum who doesn’t actually have the switch she claims and was hoping for a town counterclaim. That way they take out the townie… and maybe Brewha is in hot water, but if they aren’t actually holding that switch, scum would have gained sole control of the Batswitch.

**** Unvote DiggitCamara ****
I have even more problems with DiggitCamara toDay… and will compile those when I can get off my phone and on a computer… but for now, the Crys/Brewha race is a lot more pressing.

****Vote Brewha [/vote]

Of the two, I’d much rather lynch a liar who had a very scummy motivation to lie than a self proclaimed 3rd party that may or may not be communicating in code.

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jsgoddess nicely explains why this makes no sense:

@jsgoddess

This post was quoted a couple of times and I didn’t think about it hard enough the first time.

Wait. Why would Town counterclaim? There are two switches. If scum is holding one of them, only one Townie has a switch and would have no reason to counterclaim someone else claiming to have a switch. The only thing that makes sense for a counterclaim is if two people currently have Batman switches other than brewha, but if that were true, what would brewha be gaining by claiming and how would the other people know there was more than one of them? They’d only know that if they were on the same scum team, which wouldn’t be brewha’s team, because it wouldn’t make sense for brewha to claim in order to out the other switch holder if both were on his scum team.

I don’t think your theory makes sense.

@paulwhoisaghost

I bolded the part where we disagree.

By the logic of that statement, a townie who holds a switch would be under the impression scum hold the other switch. If someone then claims to have that switch, wouldn’t they conclude that claimant is scum?
Only one townie has a switch, but he would have no reason to counter a claim of town with the same switch?

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This makes no sense at all. A hypothetical Townie holding the other Batman switch would somehow know that the other switch was held by scum, and know to counterclaim:confused:

I explore the question further (snipped):

@Thing_Fish

I think Paul’s theory about brewha’s scum motivation fails not only for the reason mentioned above --that the other switch holder, if Town, would have had no reason to counterclaim – but also because I think if scum were going to try that, they would have tried to out the switcher of a role more dangerous to scum. Paul points out that the Vig shooting wildly would have a 1/4 chance of hitting scum, but from the point of view of either scum team, it’s only 1/8. That’s a 7/8 chance of the Vig kill helping their wincon; an investigator is much more dangerous.

Then,** Biotop** quotes my post and begins the eleventh-hour evacuation from the** brewha** and crys wagons and onto ToeJam. I agree with everything he said here, and judging from the vote shift it was a widespread sentiment.

@Biotop

I am having buyer’s remorse for my **brewha **vote, but changing it puts crys75 ** as the next option, and I don’t like that either. Between the two I’d rather have liar brewha be lynched. Yet I am worried that if **brewha **is telling the truth about the Batman switch, then some other player (very possibly not Town) with the opposing Batman switch will going forward control Batman and the vig kill. **

The whole LUTHA thing does not need to be resolved right now. Many of the questions surrounding **Crys ** and her claim can probably be blamed on meds. And I really doubt the LUTHA thing is a Scum ploy, despite the apparent hint of “leave us the hell alone” in the game color. So why bother with her?

brewha’s switch claim as some sort of Scum team gambit is a possibility. But that seems unlikely the more I think about it. A single player screwing up makes so much more sense.

It feels like it is almost too late to do anything now. We can’t even get a number of our players to vote for anyone at all. Grr. And I won’t be around at EOD Sunday due to work. More grr.

Oh well, let’s give it a shot anyway.

[**[COLOR=“black”]B][Color=red]**unvote brewha ****

****Vote Toejam **[/COLOR]

Did anyone buy his “Oh golly I was almost lynched what a surprise” post? I didn’t.

I have bolded the part which, IMO, is the major reason people decided lynching** brewha** was a bad idea.

It is my theory that scum realized this earlier than we did, and embraced the** brewha** lynch wagon. I’m sure many of the 17** brewha** voters in the vote count above were Town, but I’m betting scum are overrepresented there, and I imagine I will be voting within that group Today. I am especially suspicious of those who hung back at first and then jumped on** brewha** when the** crys** wagon looked like a serious threat: raventhief, paulwhoisaghost, Khameleon, Lakai, Hooker Chemical, Meeko, and Toejam.

paul aggressively confronts Biotop about his vote switch:

@paulwhoisaghost

I have a problem with this. You think it’s more likely a vanilla townie made a mistake than a scum did? As a player aren’t you just as likely to make a mistake no matter what your role?

You concede it’s probably to late to change anything, but cast a one off vote and mention you won’t be back. If you think it’s too late why wouldn’t you want you vote to remain on Brewha where the record would show you played a part in his death?

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This makes no sense. Biotop doesn’t want** brewha** to be lynched, so he should…vote for brewha?

A bit later, sachertorte claims Lutha. Again,** paul’s** only response to this development is to view it as a threat to the** brewha** lynch which he is clearly very invested in.

@paulwhoisaghost

So Crys is your teammate but you unvote the one person ahead of them in the lynch… putting them closer to being the person getting the noose today? For a team of survivors worrying about making it to end game, you seem awful willing to risk a vote swing that puts Crys on the chopping block.

Something is afoot… there are too many people fleeing brewha and casting one off votes…

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I think paul comes out of this looking pretty scummy, but at least he isn’t lurking, so I’ll hold off on the vote for now.

I’m done for tonight. See you all tomorrow.