Mafia Reunion - Day Two

[snfaulkner]

@paulwhoisaghost

I have a problem with this. You think it’s more likely a vanilla townie made a mistake than a scum did? As a player aren’t you just as likely to make a mistake no matter what your role?

I’m not biotop, but yes. It is far more likely for a townie to make a mistake than a scum. Especially when scum have day yapping since you check with yer scumbrethren before posting out in the open.

[paulwhoisaghost]

@sachertorte

I expected both brewha and Crys to die Today.

But that isn’t the whole truth, which is why I’m up late posting.

You all have surprised me again and again. What I expect to happen simply doesn’t. I expected everyone to realize that two lynches are better than one (OH! THE IRONY!), but many of you disagree. I expected everyone to jump on lynching Crys and brewha without a second thought, but you didn’t. Well, not both… at least not yet. Many of you did have that knee-jerk reaction, and I didn’t have any feeling that I should try and stop it. But many of you did not knee-jerk react, and thought through the situation and came to clear (and correct) conclusions about Crys. I have to say, I’m impressed. I was not expecting that to happen.

It was mentioned earlier that in order for Town to trust the Third Party non-hostiles that we have to trust Town. That’s true, but we had no way to know how Town would react to a claim. It was nice to see a few players state they were open to a Third Party claim, but with so many players, what one player thinks and posts isn’t necessarily representative of the whole. So that leaves us with Crys. Many of you want to Lynch Crys. I expected that. Crys butchered her claim badly, and linking herself to brewha for no reason was driving me insane on Friday. Still, Crys did an unforced claim and cooler heads saw that as an indicator of truth.

So Crys jumped in with a leap of faith.
Town has (at least so far) resisted a full on lynching of Crys (I know the day isn’t over, but that leads us to this current step in the Town_LUTHA alliance).

Because Town has shown restraint in assessing Crys, I will join her in claiming Third Party Cultist.

I’ve spent the past two weeks thinking about this role, so I’ll share with you my perspectives:

I’ve been playing as Vanilla Town. The are multiple reasons for this, not least of which it is a Handy Claim for Townies who are mean to Third Parties. My original plan was to play as Vanilla and take my role to the grave. I didn’t even use my power last Night to try and find a cultist because (1) I didn’t think it was all that necessary to know who the other cultists were via power and (2) I didn’t want to get caught up by watchers or trackers (Town or Scum).
Beyond the practicalities, the game is simply more fun for me to play as Town. I enjoy trying to figure out who is Town and who is Scum. Many of my best memories about mafia are from situations where I figured something out and was right, even if we ended up losing in the end. Some have expressed concern that as Third Party we could try and win with Scum, and I have given that scenario much thought as well. At the endgame, should scum be winning, I can see it would be tempting to try and win with the Scum. I tried to think of how that would play out, and while there are a few feasible scenarios, it requires scum to be on the cusp of winning (LyLo) and for scum to trust the cultists enough to form a public voting bloc. Also, I’d expect us to be wary of scum (especially Mafia with the day kill) stabbing us in the back. I get the Townie Paranoia though, I’ve been there.
Speaking of paranoia, I do have a bit of paranoia about their being a different third party that wants to kill cultists, but I try to dismiss that since we were not given any indication of danger and that would just be sucky anyway (survivor role sucks pretty bad already, btw).
The other thought I had was that winning with scum would be more difficult. At best, scum win at final 14 with a perfect game. Realistically, I think the soonest scum will win is at final 6-8. That means 3 scum to 3 non-scum or 4 scum to 4 non-scum. The chances of a cultist being one of those 3 or 4 non-scum is dishearteningly small. Town is harder to assess how quick they could win, but they at least have the ability to win quick even if the probability of a very fast win is low.

As for breadcrumbs, I did leave two. On Night Zero I made reference to the Survivor third party role and use wording that came from the cultist role PM. Something about a previous game and how a survivor managed to get Town to leave her alone (I’m not looking up the quotes). The second was Day One I think. I asked the mods a question about whether or not I should see Rogue One on Martin Luther King Day. The Luther was supposed to be a signal to Lutha. But either no one saw it or no one cared. I have not been in contact with any other LUTHAs.

I hope that my claim will corroborate Crys story and alleviate some of your suspicion on Crys regarding Crys’s choices and behavior.

Now I wonder how you’ll react. I bet it will be a surprise.

{And I still think multi-lynch is pro town. Even if you use it on Crys or me. It’s super bad for cultists, but it is good for town}

I have a terrible vote on brewha. I was trying to blend in, which was the wrong thing to do, but hopefully understandable given the circumstances of the time.
unvote Brewha
vote ToeJam

So Crys is your teammate but you unvote the one person ahead of them in the lynch… putting them closer to being the person getting the noose today? For a team of survivors worrying about making it to end game, you seem awful willing to risk a vote swing that puts Crys on the chopping block.

Something is afoot… there are too many people fleeing brewha and casting one off votes…

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[LightFoot]

@brewha

If you think I’m not town -there is no reason to even address my post. Dude, are you sure you’re sober?

is that really necessary?

[LightFoot]

@brewha

If you think I’m not town -there is no reason to even address my post. Dude, are you sure you’re sober?

is that really necessary?

[LightFoot]

@paulwhoisaghost

~
Something is afoot… there are too many people fleeing brewha and casting one off votes…

again with the ‘one off vote’ comments

if enough players make their honest vote. we get a better vote record.

Not one player here should feel pressured to pick from your * approved pool of lynchees.
You ** paul ** have mostly made sense to me so far this game but this portion of the thought process is wrong.

I do not think ** Brewha or Crys ** should be lynched toDay so I will not be voting for either of them. period.

• generic you

[LightFoot]

the board glitched/errored and my post above was doubled- sorry about that chief- It was not so important that I needed it there twice.

[BillMC]

@Crys75

I’m certain that scum will most likely take me out overnight or they may let me live a day or two just for wifom. Point is I’m done arguing this day.

Sow your own wifom?

@Crys75

Oh yeah…Scumbo’s if you leave me alive I’m flipping that switch again! I will do it everyday so you can’t protect your own. hopefully the other one with the bodyguard switch doesn’t flip theirs also. However I’m pretty sure they can read this tbh…I mean it has to be one of us right?

You seem convinced that turning off the bodyguard has value? do you seriously see one scum protecting another? if town shot at X and Y died, and Y flipped as scum, then X would also be scum - the switch in the on position would reveal two scum if the scum used the bodyguard power.

@Crys75

I’m not a survivor you will see eventually.

So you’re now not claiming your previous claim? confused.com

I was prepared to vot Crys based on her previous posts, but I now see Sach has also claimed cultist - so that lends some credence to the existence on the cult. At some point we will need to lynch one of the cultists to verify their wincon that they are non-hostile, and that may need to happen before we trust them as a voting bloc.
Lynch all liars is a so so policy - we’ve already had the “i am town” discussion on d1, and there are times that it is in towns benefit for town to lie and lead scum down a rathole. But why did brewha feel the need to apparently fabricate a description of his switch - the mods have said they all behave the same. I really don’t follow Brewha’s logic, the only thing in his favour is him coming forward to clarify the fact that the scum don’t hold all the town switches…but that clarification is only true if brewha is town.

With only a few hours left in the day, with brewha and crys being so far ahead of everyone else it’s a lessor of two evils. if we can trust the cult, then keeping them alive as a voting bloc is in towns interest.

vote: brewha

[BillMC]

oog…airborne enroute to tokyo for the rest of today

[Total_Lost]

@Scathach

Now, I really need to reread at least partially D1 but god the thread length is daunting.

I agree. The threads length in it self is daunting. Part of my problem with trying to keep up D2. As I have said - for that I am very sorry.

@Drain_Bead

Reiterating my one-off vote from yesterDay.

vote Captain Klutz

I really think his vote timing on septimus was such that he realized he was voting for a Town power role when he did it, because it came an hour and a half after septimus mentioned that he wouldn’t be around at EoD and would need to claim early if still a lynch leader. Seems like something Scum would try to take advantage of.

I disagree. I think the soft claim was done so obviously and blatant, that any scum would want to stay as far away for septimus as possible. I can see townies vote because a soft-claim really isn’t enough to unvote/not vote in itself. IMO.

@Drain_Bead

818—Finally interacts again with septimus. Still wants to know if it was intended as a soft claim or if she was misreading it. Says that it might not mean anything to the game but means something to her (Not sure what this means, TL, can you clarify?).

I can try
Since some of us read it as a soft claim and others as a sort of “slip” I was interested in learning if he did indeed soft claim or not.

I’ve been reading for 4 hours and still only halfway through this day.
Will try to catch up but time is running out for me.

I’m at the discussion regarding the Brewha-Batman-plan and thinking it more an academic discussion with a lot of what-if.
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[Captain_Klutz]

@sachertorte

Originally Posted by Captain Klutz
Why are you voting brewha over Crys?

I expected both brewha and Crys to die Today.

But that isn’t the whole truth, which is why I’m up late posting.

You all have surprised me again and again. What I expect to happen simply doesn’t. I expected everyone to realize that two lynches are better than one (OH! THE IRONY!), but many of you disagree. I expected everyone to jump on lynching Crys and brewha without a second thought, but you didn’t. Well, not both… at least not yet. Many of you did have that knee-jerk reaction, and I didn’t have any feeling that I should try and stop it. But many of you did not knee-jerk react, and thought through the situation and came to clear (and correct) conclusions about Crys. I have to say, I’m impressed. I was not expecting that to happen.

It was mentioned earlier that in order for Town to trust the Third Party non-hostiles that we have to trust Town. That’s true, but we had no way to know how Town would react to a claim. It was nice to see a few players state they were open to a Third Party claim, but with so many players, what one player thinks and posts isn’t necessarily representative of the whole. So that leaves us with Crys. Many of you want to Lynch Crys. I expected that. Crys butchered her claim badly, and linking herself to brewha for no reason was driving me insane on Friday. Still, Crys did an unforced claim and cooler heads saw that as an indicator of truth.

So Crys jumped in with a leap of faith.
Town has (at least so far) resisted a full on lynching of Crys (I know the day isn’t over, but that leads us to this current step in the Town_LUTHA alliance).

Because Town has shown restraint in assessing Crys, I will join her in claiming Third Party Cultist.

I’ve spent the past two weeks thinking about this role, so I’ll share with you my perspectives:

I’ve been playing as Vanilla Town. The are multiple reasons for this, not least of which it is a Handy Claim for Townies who are mean to Third Parties. My original plan was to play as Vanilla and take my role to the grave. I didn’t even use my power last Night to try and find a cultist because (1) I didn’t think it was all that necessary to know who the other cultists were via power and (2) I didn’t want to get caught up by watchers or trackers (Town or Scum).
Beyond the practicalities, the game is simply more fun for me to play as Town. I enjoy trying to figure out who is Town and who is Scum. Many of my best memories about mafia are from situations where I figured something out and was right, even if we ended up losing in the end. Some have expressed concern that as Third Party we could try and win with Scum, and I have given that scenario much thought as well. At the endgame, should scum be winning, I can see it would be tempting to try and win with the Scum. I tried to think of how that would play out, and while there are a few feasible scenarios, it requires scum to be on the cusp of winning (LyLo) and for scum to trust the cultists enough to form a public voting bloc. Also, I’d expect us to be wary of scum (especially Mafia with the day kill) stabbing us in the back. I get the Townie Paranoia though, I’ve been there.
Speaking of paranoia, I do have a bit of paranoia about their being a different third party that wants to kill cultists, but I try to dismiss that since we were not given any indication of danger and that would just be sucky anyway (survivor role sucks pretty bad already, btw).
The other thought I had was that winning with scum would be more difficult. At best, scum win at final 14 with a perfect game. Realistically, I think the soonest scum will win is at final 6-8. That means 3 scum to 3 non-scum or 4 scum to 4 non-scum. The chances of a cultist being one of those 3 or 4 non-scum is dishearteningly small. Town is harder to assess how quick they could win, but they at least have the ability to win quick even if the probability of a very fast win is low.

As for breadcrumbs, I did leave two. On Night Zero I made reference to the Survivor third party role and use wording that came from the cultist role PM. Something about a previous game and how a survivor managed to get Town to leave her alone (I’m not looking up the quotes). The second was Day One I think. I asked the mods a question about whether or not I should see Rogue One on Martin Luther King Day. The Luther was supposed to be a signal to Lutha. But either no one saw it or no one cared. I have not been in contact with any other LUTHAs.

I hope that my claim will corroborate Crys story and alleviate some of your suspicion on Crys regarding Crys’s choices and behavior.

Now I wonder how you’ll react. I bet it will be a surprise.

{And I still think multi-lynch is pro town. Even if you use it on Crys or me. It’s super bad for cultists, but it is good for town}

I have a terrible vote on brewha. I was trying to blend in, which was the wrong thing to do, but hopefully understandable given the circumstances of the time.
unvote Brewha
vote ToeJam

Ok sachertorte, that makes sense of your odd vote for brewha (I really thought you were scum for that vote).

Your breadcrumbs pretty well confirm you, in my book. We still don’t know if you are non-hostile, but that may resolve itself in the near future.

Unvote Crys75
Vote ToeJam

(Moving to ToeJam as he is still my best bet for scum and his reveal will greatly help the unravelling of Day 1)

[GuiriEnEspana]

@Drain_Bead

I’m not a huge fan of this vote. We have a claimed third-party and a liar out there, and you’re voting a one-off? I understand wanting to get your suspicions out there, but there are better targets toDay. That vote could be saved for later. Making the case is fine, voicing suspicion is fine, but this vote just makes it less likely that we can multi-lynch, and I think offing both brewha and crys toDay would be pro-town, because we’d learn more from it. If all else fails, we can try to Vig the runner-up, but with potential Vig switches out there, that might not be an option.

I was voting Crys, and evaluated both lynch leaders and their claims, and found that I don’t think either of them very likely to be scum. Every vote on a new candidate is a one-off until others get a chance to review it, looking at D1, I suspect we could still muscle up enough votes for a new contender. I’ll also evaluate any other candidates as we near EoD and will consider moving if there’s a better one. Also, if we get close to the deadline and we’re missing just one or two votes for the second lynch, I’ll certainly re-evaluate the potential information gain.

[Captain_Klutz]

I think that brewha is a terrible lynch for toDay. While “lynch all liars” is the best of the policy votes, it is not absolute. In this case he lied to conceal that he held a switch. That is not a totally unreasonable thing to do, but it has backfired rather badly.

For those that are concerned about the PM mismatch, see my post #902 (okay, you may think that I made up that PM to the mods - there is no way to prove it’s genuine).

For those you think it is a scum gambit to find the other Batman switch, I really can’t see how this works. I mean, if I am scum and have a Batman switch, I’m likely to assume that the other scum team hold the other switch. Then they would want me dead in order to get full control. So revealing yourself just makes you a target for the other scum team.

In addition, if scum wanted to try such a gambit, why choose brewha? He has already indicated he does not have a switch, so why not pick someone else?

Someone also suggested that it might me a gambit to get town cred. After all, lots of people regarded him as their “most likely townie”. But that doesn’t make real sense either. Remember there is another scum team - they now see someone who is not one of them, has a switch and is regarded as very likely town. That looks like a very big target.

So no, I don’t agree with a brewha lynch toDay.

(if he flips scum I am going to look really bad. So be it)

[GuiriEnEspana]

@snfaulkner

Fuckin 'ell. I’m not gonna quote things because…phone…lazy…beer.

@guiri, re:8hr comment. Believe it or not, the vast majority of hours playing this game involves reading and thinking. Posting is a tiny fraction of those 8hrs. For fuck’so sake, it took me 4 hours to get caught up today just from last night!

Also your vote on me is lame. You are saying I shouldn’t vote for a self claimed third party given that I don’t have a confirmed scum to vote for?

OK, I was poking you for your D1 contributions that did not appear to match your availability, and I suspected lurking. Today you’ve been much more active, so that just applies to D1, and not anymore.

If you believe she is a harmless survivor, with no power other than the switch and her vote, then she’s not much of a threat and can work in town’s favor. Vote records are public, and we have a range of powers to confirm her claim. What do you mean by “confirmed scum”, isn’t that a rarity in any game?

[Captain_Klutz]

I won’t be around at end of Day. I’ll check back again in around an hour and that will be it for me.

[sinjin]

vote Toejam
I believe Crys and sachertort are telling the truth. Can’t type much on my phone. Crys was obviously on meds when she posted goofy stuff.

[Total_Lost]

@Drain_Bead

If you’re talking about the “I’m not third party, I’m Town,” I was one of the ones who actually did it…
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Only read to this so far. But will vote to get it on record:

Vote Brewha

If we have a second lynch I’ll be fine with it being Crys.
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[GuiriEnEspana]

@Crys75

It was night one sorry I’m not psychic enough to know who to search for immediately. I could have picked anyone one of you. I went to the player list and literally random.org’d for the target.

Do you remember Chronos’ thing where people were asked to post “I am not third party”? I think around 10-15 players out of 54 did, I would not have looked into that pool on N1 but hey, someone could have been lying with no hope of ever being believed later.

[GuiriEnEspana]

@Captain_Klutz

I like this plan, except I don’t see the need for the masons to claim.

If this cult does exist and is non hostile then it is actually good for them to get into the open and confirmed. However, they can’t really risk that until they know they will be confirmed as non hostile. Also, the plan requires that a fellow member has already investigated Crys, which is unlikely. So toMorrow would be the earliest we could try this, although Crys may not survive that long.

So leave this plan on the backburner for now.

I think one mason claiming would be required to control the cultists - someone who can be trusted to be working in town’s best interest, without exposing the entire masonry.

[Scathach]

Sorry as I said, I’m away right now.

Vote crys

I’m not a proponent of lynch all liars particularly. Given sach also claimed then lynching crys to see if she’s telling the truth will give us some more info. Also I’m pro the double lynch.

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[Johnny_Bravo]

@Captain_Klutz

Also, the plan requires that a fellow member has already investigated Crys, which is unlikely.

No it doesn’t - if LUTHA is real, then the other cultists all know that Crys is one of them, so long as the mods didn’t give the cultist PM to anyone else (that seems pretty unlikely to me).

I think the most important thing here is that the cultists (if they are real) are being given a chance to come out and help town as a block. If they all claim later and say, “hey town, we want to help you win!” we can point to Day 2 and ask them why the hell they didn’t help us now.