I’ve been looking at the Brewha brouhaha on Day 2. Not much was happening that Day, until Brewha, Chrys and the switches took over the discussion.
It started when Chronos pointed out Brewha’s lie and voted him. Lots of people followed. There were also lots of votes for Chrys. Late in the Day there was a sudden rush on ToeJam, with many people moving their votes from Brewha and Chrys. Brewha was the final lynch, but it was very close.
Now, who most wanted a Brewha lynch? He had claimed the Batman switch. If your scum team had the other switch then great, you would be very happy for a Brewha lynch. Conversely, if your team did not have the other switch then you would suppose that the other scum team had it. In this case you would rather Brewha survive, so as to not give the other scum team control over Batman.
Here are the votes (just the top 3 vote getters. The full count is further up the page if you want to check it out):
Interestingly, there are no known mafia on the Brewha wagon. The wolf votes are spread out a bit, but they had three voting for Brewha.
Brewha was a safe vote. It was easily justifiable. But mafia certainly appeared to keep clear. What about Godfather Guiri? What was his opinion of the whole Brewha thing? Curiously, he didn’t say much about it. His first mention was in 809, where he defends Brewha and disparages Chrys:
Then 951 he says that he didn’t find either lynch leader [Brewha and Chrys] likely to be scum:
In 961 again lends some support to Brewha:
In addition, in 986 TexCat says that Brewha’s lie is not lynch worthy:
And in 991, mafiate Sunny Daze says the same:
It really looks like mafia did not want a Brewha lynch. But the wolves were happy with it. It’s rather likely that the other Batman switch was held by the wolves.
So, looking at the Brewha wagon, there are 3 unknowns: Biotop, raventhief and JohnnyBravo.
Biotop and raventhief unvoted, but JohnnyBravo stayed. I’m putting JohnnyBravo as Least Likely To Be Scum (actually, I have thought that for a fair while. This is just some more supporting evidence).
Biotop and raventhief are another matter. Biotop’s vote switch to ToeJam was the start of the ToeJam rush. It was actually a one off at the time, so looking fairly unlikely to make a difference. Raventhief’s was a fair bit later (9th vote). But I am inclined to give both Biotop and raventhief some non-mafia credit.
Another interesting post from Guiri is 1060, where he finds Raventhief’s vote switch to be particularly noteworthy (although it’s hard to say whether he is smudging someone, or distancing himself from a fellow mafiate):
In all this, it is TexCat’s defence that stands out. This defending a liar, rather than making an easy vote for him, was one of the things that made me regard TexCat as more likely town. So now I am doing another 180 and reading her action as scum.
So, of the unknowns: