[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
NETA: I was EXTREMLY tempted to put in a formula there, with all the probabilities worked out, but apparently hard numbers are frowned upon in Mafia… :dubious: 
[/QUOTE]
Hard numbers are scary! …and hard. (I almost didn’t make it through Selfish Gene because of the formulas.) Please don’t make this scary!
Well, one thing we know is that scum have recruitment power. By killing CatInASuit Today, we eliminate the possibility of CatInASuit recruiting Tonight.
I find it doubtful that MHaye holds recruitment power for the Wolves as they would not have elected him to carry out the murder of amrussell and expose himself to Detective investigation. My guess is: MHaye is a regular werewolf.
[QUOTE=sachertorte]
Well, one thing we know is that scum have recruitment power. By killing CatInASuit Today, we eliminate the possibility of CatInASuit recruiting Tonight.
I find it doubtful that MHaye holds recruitment power for the Wolves as they would not have elected him to carry out the murder of amrussell and expose himself to Detective investigation. My guess is: MHaye is a regular werewolf.
[/QUOTE]
My theory, which I cannot back up in any way, is that the recruitment power probably belongs to the Vampire.
However, assuming Idle is honest and, as I’ve said, I’m inclined to believe him at this point, based on your description of how recruitment works, if someone comes back from the dead when he says he didn’t enchant them, we simply lynch whoever it is. And if he’s a lying sack 'o crap, then the real witch-doctor can step forward and we get a 2-for-1 special on scum, or there is no witch-doctor, then they’re linked, and we’ll get them both when we get to the point of having to route out the last two scum.
In essence, I don’t think the recruitment, as you described it, is much of a threat at this point.
Anyway… I think it will make more sense when I lay out my plan… I still have a couple more cases for which to consider contingencies.
[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
In essence, I don’t think the recruitment, as you described it, is much of a threat at this point.
[/QUOTE]
But that’s one more scum we have to lynch. Are you sure we have enough lynches to go around?
Recruitment is not quite pure terror, since presumably recruiment precludes a nightkilling. However, if we rate a dead townie by night kill as -1.0 for the town, recruitment scores a -1.5 by pure numbers alone. And what if they recruit Idle Thoughts? How will we distinguish between a self-enchanted Idle Thoughts and a recruited Idle Thoughts?
I’m not saying we should lynch CatInASuit just because of recruitment, but it is something we need to consider.
The only benefit I see in lynching MHaye is that it makes Hockey Monkey relevant sooner.
[QUOTE=Diomedes]
I think Blaster’s analysis is quite on-target here… It’s quite reasonable to suppose that Cat’s not lying about his power, it stands to reason given his initial reaction to me outing him.
[/QUOTE]
I disagree. I think it is eminently reasonable that Cat would lie and say anything to save his neck for another day and/or sow confusion.
[QUOTE=Diomedes]
I somehow guess several of these votes determined to stick with lynching Cat are those of scum who see a light at the end of their collective tunnels.
[/QUOTE]
Please don’t poison the well. I am Town if you believe your own powers and I think we should stick with lynching Cat.
[QUOTE=Diomedes]
I think Blaster’s analysis is quite on-target here… It’s quite reasonable to suppose that Cat’s not lying about his power, it stands to reason given his initial reaction to me outing him.
[/QUOTE]
I disagree. I think it is eminently reasonable that Cat would lie and say anything to save his neck for another day and/or sow confusion.
[QUOTE=Diomedes]
I somehow guess several of these votes determined to stick with lynching Cat are those of scum who see a light at the end of their collective tunnels.
[/QUOTE]
Please don’t poison the well. You know I am Town and I think we should stick with lynching Cat despite whatever flack he throws our way.
[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
Please don’t poison the well. You know I am Town and I think we should stick with lynching Cat despite whatever flack he throws our way.
[/QUOTE]
I don’t think you’re scum. Nor do I think sachetorte is. I do question the others. though.
Okay, I think I have my plan mostly worked out but, unfortunately, I do not have time right now to lay it out in detail…
Without giving away my role at this point without a full claim, I will only describe that part which is necessary. I have a special power that will, aside from guaranteeing I will make it through the Night, it will also ensure that other(s) will make it as well. By using this power I will 100% guarantee my and Hockey Monkey’s survival tonight… if I can indeed protect more than two, I will not reveal whom else I would protect, thus freeing the Witches to protect Diomedes.
This will mean the scum can think I’m bluffing and target me or Hockey Monkey and waste their kill or they can target Sachetorte or Idle. Targetting Idle would be foolish because, knowing Dio is protected, he can self-juju, which makes their kill wasted. Thus, the only confirmed target left unprotected is Sachetorte. This is where having two kill attempts can actually be made to work to our advantage.
They can BOTH target him, making Hockey Monkey’s investigation the following Day very simple OR one of them can either target Idle (essentially wasting it AND allowing Sach to confirm his role) OR they can call my bluff (wasting it) OR they can take a stab in the unconfirmed pool hoping to find, either an opposing scum, the third Witch, or some other pro-town role which, ultimately, makes our job easier. Also, because there’s no way for either scum faction to work with the other, it’s possible that they’ll out guess eachother and BOTH try to make sure they don’t double up on targets and possibly BOTH waste their kills OR take stabs in the unconfirmed pool. And, if either DOES decide to kill Sach, it’s largely a neutral kill, because it hurts them almost as much as it hurts town.
Now, in light of this, I have decided NOT to reveal my role unless it becomes necessary. First, because it will only help scum and second, if I show up dead, obviously I was lying scum, and if Hockey Monkey shows up dead, you all can lynch me knowing I’m lying scum and the town is benefited or if she shows up dead, the best she would have had was the Witch Doctor’s enchantment ANYWAY (since the witches will almost certainly protect Diomedes tonight.
Thus, we are guaranteed at least one more reading from Hockey of a different wolf and at least one more reading from the Witches at the cost of, potentially, one recruit which, knowing Idle is protecting himself tonight, would be patently obvious when someone else comes back, and we simply lynch them… whenever.
So, in essence, this plan would result in, AT WORST, an unrevealed roleclaim dead and sach (though, more likely,only one of those), in exchange for two more scum. Considering there’s probably only three more left after MHaye and Cat, I think that would almost guarantee a town victory.
NETA: Okay, I guess I lied about not laying it out in detail… I did lay most of the detail out. Though, some parts are probably not well explained.
Blaster, protect away, I say. Sounds wonderful.
But why not still string up Cat? Is it because of his claim that his special power will kill Dio? I think it would be a mistake to take anything he says at face value and plan from that. In fact, I’ll say it right out: I don’t believe he is the Necromancer.
Unvote CatInASuit
Vote MHaye
It occurs to me that those who are voting for Cat might be scum actually hoping he’s telling the truth and able to take out Dio with him.
Me, I don’t see the reasoning behind waiting on it. If he’s telling the truth, well, that’s bad for Town.
If he’s lying and he is the Vamp, the Vig could just take him out this upcoming Night. Either way, we’d know.
And if Cat is still alive TomorroDay, we know there probably isn’t a Vig. Much, much more certain than we would be if it was revered and MHaye was still left alive or was found dead. Because if we lynch Cat and MHaye is found dead after the Night, it could have been the real Vamp that killed him (and thus, everyone will think it was the Vig that did it). This is, of course, if Cat is telling the truth.
If Cat is lying, however, and we lynch him and MHaye shows up dead at Night, we know there is one…but if he’s left alive, what does that say? Either this is a Vig in the game and they didn’t want to take that chance (due to giving some belief to MHaye or there is no Vig. Two options there.
Whereas with Cat being left for the possible Vig toNight and surviving only has ONE option. That there IS NO VIG. Because if there is, I don’t know why they wouldn’t kill off Cat based on his confessions. He’s a sure thing. MHaye, at least in my mind, would give birth to other possibilites if being left untouched OR dying.
Am I making any sense?
Well, to me I am and I bet to a lot of you I would be too but a lot will still keep their vote on Cat. Some, maybe, because they don’t believe him. But others, I can bet, because they DO and hope that he takes Dio with him.
A lot of people say “Why are we doing what scum wants us to do?” But maybe they want to kill Cat off because they believe him. If he really is the Necro, obviously his Vampire will probably be voting for him.
I just see MHaye being the better choice right now. Because on the off chance we DO lose a Witch, there goes a large part of the game for Town. Because one Witch cannot provide protection for anyone or investigate anyone.
I think there is a chance we could…and some of you voting for Cat seem to be willing to take that chance happily.
[QUOTE=sachertorte]
And what if they recruit Idle Thoughts? How will we distinguish between a self-enchanted Idle Thoughts and a recruited Idle Thoughts?
[/quote]
This is why it’d be helpful to have two Witches left.
Because if I ever die and come back, I can prove I’m not recruited by probably doing it again (resurrecting someone else). But obviously it won’t work too well if/when the scum know I’ve already used the enchantment on myself and therefore couldn’t again. If I ever am killed off and am self enchanting, once I come back it’s curtains for me.
[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
Please don’t poison the well. I am Town if you believe your own powers and I think we should stick with lynching Cat.
[/QUOTE]
What does “believing in your own powers” have anything to do with it? What a crock. You’re basicially trying to GET HIM to vote and hopefully kill off Cat even though it could spell the end for him.
That “believing in your own powers” and trying to guilt trip him is crap. His own powers, as far as I know, only said “Undead”. This could mean Vampire OR Necromancer. So how is him not wanting to take the chance on it really being the latter doubting his own powers in any way? :dubious: :rolleyes:
You better cover up. Your scumminess is showing.
Oh, and based on you being “Town”…you’re just the Omega Wolf. Easy as pie to explain that.
[QUOTE=Idle Thoughts]
What does “believing in your own powers” have anything to do with it? What a crock. You’re basicially trying to GET HIM to vote and hopefully kill off Cat even though it could spell the end for him.
That “believing in your own powers” and trying to guilt trip him is crap. His own powers, as far as I know, only said “Undead”. This could mean Vampire OR Necromancer. So how is him not wanting to take the chance on it really being the latter doubting his own powers in any way? :dubious: :rolleyes:
You better cover up. Your scumminess is showing.
[/QUOTE]
You crack me up. 
[QUOTE=Blaster Master]
snip
Targetting Idle would be foolish because, knowing Dio is protected, he can self-juju, which makes their kill wasted.
snip.
[/QUOTE]
Am I the only one that got a grin out of the mental image of Idle self-juju-ing?
I swear sometimes I think I’m 10 yrs old.
[QUOTE=Hockey Monkey]
Am I the only one that got a grin out of the mental image of Idle self-juju-ing?
[/QUOTE]
I think so. I vomited a little in my mouth.
[QUOTE=ShadowFacts]
I disagree. I think it is eminently reasonable that Cat would lie and say anything to save his neck for another day and/or sow confusion.
(snip)
[/QUOTE]
Absolutely. For instance: the Vampire is unkillable (by Night) except by the Vigilante. Since Pleonast has had fun adding secret clauses to some Roles, why wouldn’t there be one that says that that Role kills the Vigilante if (s)he’s targeted during the Night? And voilá, the Cat survives the Night, creates a new zombie and kills the Vigilante!
A weaker argument is that most of the Powers that scumRoles have are Night-related. Most of the Powers of townRoles are Day related. Wouldn’t the narrative have a Necromancer having mostly Night-Powers? And wouldn’t Cat’s Role better be served by telling a half-truth?
[QUOTE=DiggitCamara]
Absolutely. For instance: the Vampire is unkillable (by Night) except by the Vigilante. Since Pleonast has had fun adding secret clauses to some Roles, why wouldn’t there be one that says that that Role kills the Vigilante if (s)he’s targeted during the Night? And voilá, the Cat survives the Night, creates a new zombie and kills the Vigilante!
[/QUOTE]
Indeed, there is a lot we don’t know, and taking Cat’s claim at face value is very dangerous.
And this emerging meme/suggestion that all those who are voting for CatInASuit are scummy is troubling and should be examined carefully. It’s interesting how quickly that **Cat **consensus dissolved and why.