Unofficial update:
1659 Story posts the Night Kill.
1666 Precambrianmollusc votes Nonsuch (1)
1668 Nonsuch votes Precambrianmollusc (1)
1677 Prof. Pepperwinkle votes Precambrianmollusc (2)
Not yet voting:
Cygnus42
sangfroid
Regarding myself, I am being extra careful this last time.
Earlier in the game, I had a bad feeling about PCM and am still leaning that way now. I screwed up with Tex and don’t want to make another major blunder like that.
There are a few specific posts from PCM that still bug me, and I’m trying to gather those now.
I know I’m Town.
I believe Prof. P and Cygnus are also.
I’d really like to see a Town Wins! this Monday…
I will cop to the former charge. I haven’t posted as much as most other people. Part of this is my temperament, and part of it is because of some RL issues that cropped up, which I mentioned but didn’t want to make a big thing about.
As to the other charge, I vote when I’m ready. How would it look to you if I regularly voted early, then ended up changing my vote?
Of course, I could just openly piggyback off of other players and vote with the crowd. Nothing suspicious about that, right?
Well, ouch. But, then, I haven’t done piggyback voting since Day 2. And, since I’m voting for PCM, I don’t consider the low count or the late votes as important as other things. And these are:
Reasons to lynch PCM
One or two of these alone are unconvincing, and could readily be disregarded as minor. It’s putting it all together that makes him the best suspect. There may be more, but this is what I have.
- If I’ve read correctly, he’s the only remaining experienced player. All the rest of us are Noobs.
- Negativity about using the Town’s initial tie-breaking mechanism to our advantage.
- Didn’t self-vote for Biotop’s plan. Of all the known wolves only Diggit voted for it, and he did it late.
- Cast a throwaway vote for Sangfroid at Day One’s lynching, then showed after the day had ended to change it to Plum (which would still have been a throwaway vote at that point).
- When Bayard revealed himself as Seer his immediate reaction was to cast doubt on his claim.
- In Post 411 he states him opinions of the other players. JSexton is defended, and all the other known wolves receive no comment at all.
- Second day voted Thing Fish early after TF had posted a long, helpful analysis of the first day’s vote, and repeatedly hounded TF after what now look like small errors in syntax. Nobody supported this vote. Nonsuch especially challenged PCM on it. Eventually (late) he switched back to Sangfroid, another throwaway vote.
- Use of Tapatalk makes it hard to follow his posts.
- Post 1009 of Bayard’s lists his suspects based on JSexton’s interactions. Again, he lists Diggit, JBravo and Sario. He was wrong about TexCat. The other name is PCM’s.
- Was the last to vote for JSexton the day he was lynched.
- Post 1041: expresses doubt that examining JSexton’s posts would be helpful in determining who is or isn’t a wolf.
- Post 1129, Diggit voted PCM. (This could be considered a defense, of course.) Then Post 1217, he votes Diggit. If PCM is a wolf, this is bussing for mutual protection in what was a very close vote.
- Post 1159, Biotop’s detailed analysis has him leaning wolf on PCM. He revised that later on.
- Post 1275 (at Night), asks if there has ever been a scum clean sweep.
- Post 1284, early the next day, he votes Diggit again, and this is immediately followed by JBravo voting for Diggit.
- And the next day he votes for Diggit, after having posted very little the previous day.
- Yesteday, Chitwood, Cygnus and I all leaned to lynch PCM today.
5 or 6 games fwiw, this is my first game in about 3 years I think. I was scum in 2 or 3 games. I think I made it alive to the end of only one game, but I was the detective and managed to pull a septimus on day one, fortunately got my claim out earlier than he did and so didn’t get lynched on day one. Survived until endgame, thanks to a very good guardian angel and a total wolf team meltdown. It may have been a game on one of the dope spin off boards, anyway that’s kind of irrelevant
As it turned out it was a flawed plan , so yeah it was reasonable to be skeptical of a lynch. I was pretty sure Storey would have thought the mechanism through so as not to be such an obvious town gift, and someone had posted that the game could be slightly balanced in favor of town, so I deemed it unlikely that the tie break mechanism would work out smoothly for us. I couldn’t put my finger on it, Septimus and others did when they pointed out the possibility for wolves swapping the vote at the last minute
Because I didn’t agree with it. As I said later - someone can go run a mote carlo simulation of the plan and let us know how it turned out, I’ll be over here playing mafia. There is nothing pro wolf about not going with Biotops idea
I cast a vote - anyone else get a correct vote on day one? - Characterizing as throwaway is highly disingenuous. Voting record is important, I have gone on the record when I want to express suspicion. Nonsuch appears to think that’s a bad idea, and prefers to not expose themselves until it is obvious they can vote in a safe way
NO, read the post, I suggested to town that we should be cautious, examine the claim not leap right onto it as a given. I was somewhat suspicious of those who did jump straight in as it would indicate they knew the claim was true, and only wolves would know that. Keeping Jsexton alive for a day would have had the downside of having an experienced scum alive, but would not have shut down conversation. As it was the thought was provocative enough to keep some discussion going, and we had a reasonable days discussion
I said
“Jsexton - I think their objection to the coordinated lynch comes more form a ‘play the game; perspective rather than a would trying to stop the coordination”
I still do think his posts were from a desire to play the game . Nothing to do with being the wolf that he was
yep - saw something odd, voted for it, it could well have been a slip by TF and, you know, getting an opinion put there, unlike say Nonsuch who prefers to play it cool until he can vote in a safe way
Yeah, I am not much better in the browser either.
He is wrong about that as well. Excellently played by Bayard, but not 100%
And also said I was tempted to vote for Diggit, because I am quite happy to express my opinion and have a voting record that can be traced and not hide in the crowd with safe votes , you know like someone else here.
No - pointed out in response to someone (Bio?) saying “let’s look at JSextons lies” that we really would not know if he was lying or telling the truth , so we should be cautious. Scum don’t lie all the time, in fact they are often very helpful. I mentioned way back that Diggit made quiet a few ‘game play’ type posts, things that people could agree with and are not controversial. Nonsuch has done the same thing and posted quiet a few things that one could agree with, but are not actual scum hunting and so don’t put the wolf in an exposed position. You know playing it cool and keeping a low profile, not entirely unlike Nonsuch
After the past several days of saying I was going to vote for Diggit, was I setting up this bussing in advance?
Yes - you should look back at that - remember the whole - did Plum quote Stories posted role rather than his own PM. Thought I had seen a slip, turns out I just don’t know much about the board software
yes - but if I was a wolf would I not have had a safe wolf board to post such a gloating question on?
Diggit was getting heat from elsewhere, the pool of probable scum was very small , they were pretty much at a point where they had to vote for each other or try and make a spurious case aginst some of the reasonably confirmed players. That would be dangerous for them , and if they all piled on me and lynched me, it would look bad for them when I turned up town. So I guess they tried a bit of bussing and hoped the reasonably confirmed town would choose poorly
Other than my case on digit, from the day before, wasn’t much more I could say about him. Also then or the day before I also pointed out He JB and nonesuch were the probable wolves, so 2 out of 3 so far, hopefully when we lynch nonesuch it will be 3 of 3
ok
bad idea
Changing votes is fine, what looks suspicious is you really haven’t made and waves, it has been safe low profile voting. I change my mind because I am wrong, town is frequently wrong because we don’t know anything, to me it looks like you are voting to avoid suspicion.
So, about one day left in the Day. Hopefully the final Day of this game…
I see a nice spirited defense from **precambrianmollusc **- I think that we’d expect nothing less from the final wolf, though.
It seems like we’re all in agreement that the final wolf pretty much has to be either **PCM **or Nonsuch. I was suspicious of **sangfroid **earlier in the game, but **Jimmy C ** made a good case that **sangfroid **was unlikely to be a wolf after the **Sario **vote.
So, we’re sitting here with 2 reasonable candidates for the last wolf, and 2 votes remaining.
PCM is making an argument to move the vote over to Nonsuch, but it almost doesn’t matter. If we switched our votes over to Nonsuch today, and he turned up town, then we’d just immediately vote PCM for the next day.
And, even if PCM turns up town today, the remaining 2 townies (probably me & sangfroid) would vote Nonsuch, hopefully for the win.
If the final wolf did turn out to be sangfroid, then we’d lose, and be sad…but, I think that’s unlikely.
so -
vote precambrianmollusc
- and we hopefully wrap things up with this lynch.
PS: If our remaining wolf wants to confess, in the face of crushing inevitability, that would be OK too.
i would agree that the logical thing for town is to lynch nonsuch and myself. The problem is if we lynch nonsuch and they turn up town , we are in a bit of a pickle because the remaining wolf is you , the prof or sangfroid.
It is probably not you, and between the prof and sangfroid not sure . I’ll try and get a reread in prior to tomorrow on those two. I suspect you will be dead tonight as the most probable town.
That said when I turn up town the best plan would be to lunch nonsuch as he is the most likely wolf.
If he isn’t then wolves win.
If we lynch nonsuch and they turn up town we have one more shot to win if we can figure out between sangfroid and the prof who is the last scum.
You know, of everything I have read and re-read, the most damning concern about PCM, to me, is this bit from the Prof:
If anyone is unclear about this comment, go back to pages one and two and read the sign ups.
The wolves in this game have, without exception, systematically butchered the most experienced among us poor beset-upon Townies, one after another.
I can see no reason whatsoever to believe that would change at this point in the game. It has been a very successful tactic.
I am also convinced at this point that the Prof is Town, as am I. Pretty sure about Cygnus. A little vague about Nonsuch, but more convinced PCM is our last wolf.
A very well played wolf, if true, and we’ll know soon enough.
vote Precambrianmollusc
Unofficial update:
1659 Story posts the Night Kill.
1666 Precambrianmollusc votes Nonsuch (1)
1668 Nonsuch votes Precambrianmollusc (1)
1677 Prof. Pepperwinkle votes Precambrianmollusc (2)
1687 Cygnus42 votes Precambrianmollusc (3)
1689 sangfroid votes Precambrianmollusc (4)
Experience doesn’t mean I am any good, I suspect the wolves noted no one was really listening to me , to be fair I haven’t always made the most coherent if cases , and they probably left me alive because I am in the pool of people not likely to be town, it would be crazy to night kill me. I also seriously doubt anyone remembers me playing .
Still as it looks like I will be dead, I think nonsuch is still the best option for the next lynch. If he turns up town we loose. I still think it is a better option to lynch him today, if in the unlikely event he turns up town we have one last shot to win.
With a quarter-hour left to go, I want to commend the Townfolk for their game (especially us Noobs): from the get-go it was pointed out that, using Sexton points, Town was slightly behind. Then we suffered the quick losses of our Doctor and 2 Masons. Thanks largely to the efforts of our Seer and First Mason we have managed to nearly pull it off now, and even have one more chance if this bottoms up. Go Town!
Well I’ll be here having a last drink.
Nonsuch is still the best option for tomorrow I think, go town
I wonder if I will get a few hours extra
Does the day end exactly at 12 , or when Story turns up?
Well, he said it would end at Noon , and that’s how we’ve played it so far.
Well I’ll just be finishing up my last drink then
Skol! You played a good game either way.
No fun during fluffy time!
I thought of one more question to ask of you, PCM, but it will have to wait now.
Either we have one more Day to go, or not.
Here’s hoping not.
For those who have played here often, was this a typical game in that it has come down to the last few players? Or do really savvy Townies get their wolves earlier? (Or get wiped out earlier?)
Just curious…
…crosses fingers, toes, and any other movable body parts of at least two…
I suppose another round while we wait . Sangfroid I think the answer to your question will have to wait until game end.
As for games coming down to the last few players, I think it has been all over the place , some down to 3 handed ends, others scum shut outs or handily won by town. One thing to keep in mind is that this game is a fairly straightforward set up. There other game set ups with many more roles and into very complex setups like the conspiracy games with multiple factions. So even trying to describe what a typical game is , is not a trivial task.
DUSK, DAY EIGHT
*…Vaughn with the windup, and the pitch -
Swing and a miss! Strike three, and Los Lobos have retired the side in the eighth.
Looks like we’re headed to the bottom of the ninth, folks, where it will be - as it always is - sudden death.*
Precambrianmollusc, who was a Peasant and whose name was hard to type, has been lynched.
Night Eight begins here and will end on Wednesday, September 16 at noon (if the Wolf makes his or her kill order before then, and if the remaining players wish it, I’ll start the last Day earlier than that if possible).